Flow at 9.28 Years
07-26-2020 | 09:18 PM
#241
On Reserve
Joined: Jan 2020
Posts: 21
Likes: 0
It isn’t just the load factors (although with cheap enough fares you could probably sell out the back of a dump truck) it’s the model.
Every pilot they have can fly every aircraft they have. A falloff in international or business flying doesn’t require you to train someone currently flying a 787 (and whose previous type was a 727) to fly a 777 before you can train the guy displaced from the 777 to fly a 767 so you can train the guy who was displaced from the 767 to fly an A320 so you can train the guy displaced from the A320 to fly a 737 before you can furlough the first year 737 FO so you can save $7k a month after paying for 4 training events and 6 months of senior pilot down time. And then you have four PO’d senior guys still making 12 year scale.
If they need to furlough, NK and F9 tell their junior FO (who is making maybe $4K a month) hasta la vista and everybody else presses on.
And no captain is gonna need a new type rating to downgrade to FO either.
So yeah, you better believe NK and F9 will be recalling furloughed people and hiring new people long before AA will.
Every pilot they have can fly every aircraft they have. A falloff in international or business flying doesn’t require you to train someone currently flying a 787 (and whose previous type was a 727) to fly a 777 before you can train the guy displaced from the 777 to fly a 767 so you can train the guy who was displaced from the 767 to fly an A320 so you can train the guy displaced from the A320 to fly a 737 before you can furlough the first year 737 FO so you can save $7k a month after paying for 4 training events and 6 months of senior pilot down time. And then you have four PO’d senior guys still making 12 year scale.
If they need to furlough, NK and F9 tell their junior FO (who is making maybe $4K a month) hasta la vista and everybody else presses on.
And no captain is gonna need a new type rating to downgrade to FO either.
So yeah, you better believe NK and F9 will be recalling furloughed people and hiring new people long before AA will.
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07-27-2020 | 04:04 AM
#243
Line Holder
Joined: Jun 2019
Posts: 1,284
Likes: 0
A bigger problem might not be that flow might be gone in bankruptcy, but that Envoy might be gone in bankruptcy along with one or both of the other WOs. If flying demand remains low that AAG has to reduce its regional footprint, they still have to honor their contracts with Skywest, Republic, and Mesa. They also have to honor scope with APA. One of the easiest ways to accomplish that would be to shut the doors on a WO or two or three.
It won't be long, but I imagine we'll soon see a MEC letter saying that Pedro approached the union saying that AAG needs to consolidate regional flying to just one WO, just like what is happening with Expressjet. If we don't agree to XYZ concessions, then AAG will move all our planes and flying to PSA or PDT. It won't really matter, though. One of the pilot groups will undercut the other two for survival. The others will be given "preferential hiring" at the remaining WO, and the guys who just missed the flow will be invited to start over at the bottom of the survivor's list, just like United hoped the TSA pilots would follow the 145s they flew to bottom of the Expressjet list. No crystal ball, just looking at history repeating itself.
Just throwing out another perspective.
It won't be long, but I imagine we'll soon see a MEC letter saying that Pedro approached the union saying that AAG needs to consolidate regional flying to just one WO, just like what is happening with Expressjet. If we don't agree to XYZ concessions, then AAG will move all our planes and flying to PSA or PDT. It won't really matter, though. One of the pilot groups will undercut the other two for survival. The others will be given "preferential hiring" at the remaining WO, and the guys who just missed the flow will be invited to start over at the bottom of the survivor's list, just like United hoped the TSA pilots would follow the 145s they flew to bottom of the Expressjet list. No crystal ball, just looking at history repeating itself.
Just throwing out another perspective.
”hey guys, in order to stay in business, we’re going to need you to take some conce-“
”yes. We will do it.”
07-27-2020 | 04:41 AM
#244
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Mar 2017
Posts: 4,176
Likes: 158
A bigger problem might not be that flow might be gone in bankruptcy, but that Envoy might be gone in bankruptcy along with one or both of the other WOs. If flying demand remains low that AAG has to reduce its regional footprint, they still have to honor their contracts with Skywest, Republic, and Mesa. They also have to honor scope with APA. One of the easiest ways to accomplish that would be to shut the doors on a WO or two or three.
It won't be long, but I imagine we'll soon see a MEC letter saying that Pedro approached the union saying that AAG needs to consolidate regional flying to just one WO, just like what is happening with Expressjet. If we don't agree to XYZ concessions, then AAG will move all our planes and flying to PSA or PDT. It won't really matter, though. One of the pilot groups will undercut the other two for survival. The others will be given "preferential hiring" at the remaining WO, and the guys who just missed the flow will be invited to start over at the bottom of the survivor's list, just like United hoped the TSA pilots would follow the 145s they flew to bottom of the Expressjet list. No crystal ball, just looking at history repeating itself.
Just throwing out another perspective.
It won't be long, but I imagine we'll soon see a MEC letter saying that Pedro approached the union saying that AAG needs to consolidate regional flying to just one WO, just like what is happening with Expressjet. If we don't agree to XYZ concessions, then AAG will move all our planes and flying to PSA or PDT. It won't really matter, though. One of the pilot groups will undercut the other two for survival. The others will be given "preferential hiring" at the remaining WO, and the guys who just missed the flow will be invited to start over at the bottom of the survivor's list, just like United hoped the TSA pilots would follow the 145s they flew to bottom of the Expressjet list. No crystal ball, just looking at history repeating itself.
Just throwing out another perspective.
Tough times ahead for sure, but if we could just get the three WO's to stand in unity, we may just get through this.
07-27-2020 | 04:50 AM
#245
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Aug 2005
Posts: 3,707
Likes: 0
First tell aag cancel all non w/o contracts ie. Skw, rah and mesa. Do that first, make a public statement to ybye media and file it withc.dtbye sec first, then and only then will we come to the table with no nda signed.
07-27-2020 | 07:06 AM
#246
Perennial Reserve
Joined: Jan 2018
Posts: 14,251
Likes: 257
A bigger problem might not be that flow might be gone in bankruptcy, but that Envoy might be gone in bankruptcy along with one or both of the other WOs. If flying demand remains low that AAG has to reduce its regional footprint, they still have to honor their contracts with Skywest, Republic, and Mesa. They also have to honor scope with APA. One of the easiest ways to accomplish that would be to shut the doors on a WO or two or three.
So scope is limited - both as to total flight hours and to total number of regional aircraft (limited to a percentage of mainline narrow bodies). The early retirement of the E-190s and the older 737s, coupled with deferrals of the Future 321XLR orders combined with the decreased overall flying is going to mean that something has to give and decreasing assets they control will actually be cheaper than paying a premium to cancel contracts.
So yeah, lose a few more aircraft in bankruptcy and push could really come to shove...
07-27-2020 | 07:32 AM
#247
Line Holder
Joined: Mar 2014
Posts: 426
Likes: 1
From: Pipers!
when does round one start and when does round two begin? Or is it a continuous thing throughout the month based on real time loads? Just curious about this process.
07-27-2020 | 07:41 AM
#248
Gets Weekends Off
Joined: Mar 2017
Posts: 4,176
Likes: 158
If there is indeed a round two, which I cant see why there wouldn't be as dera has shown to be correct in most of their statements, it would be even worse than what we see now. This is going to get really bad as Excargodog mentions if scope issues start coming into play and a reduction in lines, I cant see a way out of greater furloughs.
07-27-2020 | 08:11 AM
#249
In a land of unicorns
Joined: Apr 2014
Posts: 7,072
Likes: 102
From: Whale FO
I too was unaware that AA had tiered cancelation packages, but I can assure you that if they do, round 1 already happened yesterday morning. It would seem that many peoples schedules have seen reduced flying, upwards of 50% by some accounts.
If there is indeed a round two, which I cant see why there wouldn't be as dera has shown to be correct in most of their statements, it would be even worse than what we see now. This is going to get really bad as Excargodog mentions if scope issues start coming into play and a reduction in lines, I cant see a way out of greater furloughs.
If there is indeed a round two, which I cant see why there wouldn't be as dera has shown to be correct in most of their statements, it would be even worse than what we see now. This is going to get really bad as Excargodog mentions if scope issues start coming into play and a reduction in lines, I cant see a way out of greater furloughs.
07-27-2020 | 08:12 AM
#250
Line Holder
Joined: Jun 2019
Posts: 65
Likes: 0
I too was unaware that AA had tiered cancelation packages, but I can assure you that if they do, round 1 already happened yesterday morning. It would seem that many peoples schedules have seen reduced flying, upwards of 50% by some accounts.
If there is indeed a round two, which I cant see why there wouldn't be as dera has shown to be correct in most of their statements, it would be even worse than what we see now. This is going to get really bad as Excargodog mentions if scope issues start coming into play and a reduction in lines, I cant see a way out of greater furloughs.
If there is indeed a round two, which I cant see why there wouldn't be as dera has shown to be correct in most of their statements, it would be even worse than what we see now. This is going to get really bad as Excargodog mentions if scope issues start coming into play and a reduction in lines, I cant see a way out of greater furloughs.
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