Originally Posted by uavking

I stick with my guess of Q1 '22. Upthread I mentioned the rumors around DL hiring as early as Q4 this year. While DL didn't officially furlough, they had a large number of early outs, a very large number of people sitting UNA (unassigned) for awhile, and some new hires who never made it through the initial cycle. This is in addition to fleet retirements and base closures that shuffled alot of bodies.

The point of mentioning DL is that AA has all of that as well as substantially more projected (pre-Rona, so some adjustment via early outs) retirements over the next 5-10 years. Will AA go into 2022 a smaller airline that it was in Q1 2020? Yes, but so will DL and UA. Just to maintain that smaller airline in the face of retirements, AA will have to hire. In order to fly the summer '22 schedule, grab market share, and eventually return to its previous size as the industry recovers, AA will have to hire. Take all that for what it's worth, but I also wouldn't give into the apocalyptic doom and gloom.

Originally Posted by FAIPMAFIA

You make very good points. AA will have to hire in 2022 but my guess is it won’t be what we saw prior to COVID. For those who got hire prior to the fall of 2016 I say you can add another 1 to 2 years to their flow time.

Originally Posted by highfarfast

Addition to flow? I think we're talking about an extra 2 years at minimum. Perhaps 3 years. I don't think it's longer than that though.

But an extra 1 year? We're already at the extra year with mainline pilots still out that need to be pulled back in and trained before we get to hiring/flowing.

Originally Posted by FAIPMAFIA

Yea my bad. I mean on top of this already.

Originally Posted by highfarfast

Gotcha. Sorry, I might be a bit trigger happy. What you say makes sense if one considers this past year already gone, which it is.

Originally Posted by havick206

Just read the AA mainline thread where they talk about LOA’s being approved like crack cocaine in the last bid. That’s pretty much sums up the realistic timeframe of AA hiring picking back up.

Originally Posted by Cyio

The “flow” won’t be back for some time. If I had to guess, two years.

Originally Posted by coodrough568

I’d keep your heads up. We are roughly 7-800k travelers per day away from 2019 levels with virtually NO business travel at all.

Originally Posted by Shiner

I think the biggest issue is training backlog at AA. They displaced a huge number of pilots by parking the 190, 75/76, and 330. They also had quite a few out on furlough. I don’t think they’ll be able to train new hires for quite a while.


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