Quote:
TO: ALL PILOTS 1 OF 2
A VACANCY/DISPLACEMENT BID IS OPEN EFF <02 OCT 2015
*VACANCIES* *ENTER TRAINING NO LATER THAN*
<10 ORD CA CRJ <31 MAR 17
<55 DFW CA E75 <31 MAR 17
<40 DFW FO E75 <31 MAR 17

*DISPLACEMENT* *ENTER TRAINING NO LATER
<55 DFW CA EMJ <31 MAR 17
<40 DFW FO EMJ <31 MAR 17


So really 10 new Captain slots overall. Still keeps the 8-9yr upgrade and 16yr flow anyway you try to sell it.


Good Luck!

 

Yes, for at least one, quite a metamorphosis has occurred.

A vacancy bid was just posted for 65 captains (but 55 captain displacements from smaller Embraer's). However, with a training completion date of about 18 months from now (no later than), that doesn't sound like the upgrade mill the salesman are forecasting. How many of the junior Embraer captaincies are backfilled will be interesting to see, but even if they all are, an 18 month window is a red flag for confidence. With at least 30 and more likely 40 new hires each and every month to build the proper bubble to support the upgrade/flow claims, they'll need to run 15/20 upgrades every MONTH and projecting an 18 month training projection which is a protection for the company doesn't seem to put much confidence in meeting the sales quotas.

BTW, the Envoy sales teams projections of the flow are based on the number of AA retirements, but I think that is error as that assumes an equal number of pilots would be needed to replace them. I've heard that AA's future "growth" once the SLI is completed and implemented along with PBS will not be increasing the number of pilots or replacing those that retire, but instead realized by increased efficiencies of the present pilots which is likely to offset to a great degree the number of AA pilots required in the future and that will be less pilots for at least a few years after the final merger synergies are implemented. That baseline is likely to be achieved late next year, which coincidentally will be when the SLI is complete, PBS is in play and the carrier can then truly realize and apply their synergies due to truly becoming one airline and also clean up the remaining 824 at Envoy.

After that, I expect no hiring at AA for perhaps up to 2-3 years as synergistic efficiencies offset the number of AA pilots that gradually retire over that period, resulting in stagnation for that same period. Another benefit for AAG will be the immediate reduction in their regional pilot losses as the flow then stops and many pilots will stay at the AAG regionals anyway and Envoy in particular because they are committed with too much invested to start over at another regional, are senior and making livable captains pay and only attrition of more junior pilots to the other two legacies or LCC's will occur giving them some breathing room.

 

No hiring for 2-3 years? You are a moron.

 

Gee..............that well articulated response with coherent reasons as to why, truly hurt my feelings. [sarc]

OK, for those who are NOT apparent imbeciles , my point was that 2016 should see the remainder of 824 Envoy flows and the required amount of other AAG flows transition to AA. At the end of 2016, with the ability to truly utilize one list of pilots and manipulate and balance the operation along with PBS, there will be a temporary overage of pilots due to realization of the merger synergies not available at present (we are projected to require less pilots in 2015 already). Even though hundreds of pilots will retire in 2017 and hundreds more in 2018 and 2019, we should be able to staff the projected relatively flat future flying plan with less bodies by doing more with less. That time frame for that stagnation period cannot be determined, but in all likelihood, it could easily last 2-3 years.

Now for the rest of the Crayola Commandos and Ritalin Rangers who cannot comprehend this post.............well, back to your coloring books and video games.

 

Do not forget that the agreement between asg and doj which expires in 2016. That agreement required the new AA would not reduce any hub for 3 years. This is a big factor in the equation for required pilots at aa.

 

The small satellite SFO base just got whacked and other bases will likely be impacted as well over the next 18-24 months. The aircraft deliveries (orders) slated through 2018 are for replacement and there have been deferrals of deliveries. Parker is very cautious about expansion and with the coming synergies that this merger has produced just like others, it is likely a period of static operation will occur and given those as not yet realized synergies, it is also likely that there will be little need for additional pilots after 2016 for an undetermined period as the operation levels itself out. It won't be forever, but it will almost certainly be for at least a year and possibly as long as three.

This would be good news for AAG regionals though as they too would have less attrition and become more stable which although isn't the point of AA realignment, but another positive byproduct of it. Consolidation among the wholly-owneds with a uniform flow will stabilize the feed segment as well, which I think likely. Additionally, AA pilots go into section 6 negotiations starting in 2019 and of course, management always likes to use hiring and growth as a lever against pilots in that situation, so the timing of all this matches up quite predictably for this probability.

 

So much conjecture, so few emojis


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

When eaglefly speaks, it's not conjecture. It's pure hard cold fact.

To him at least.

 

To-may-to.......to-mah-to.

I guess when it comes from an Envoy salesman, it isn't a sales tactic and it certainly isn't "conjecture", but certainty and fact. When a message arrives against that position from elsewhere, it's "conjecture". The reality is that the whole flow "projections" of Envoy and other AAG regional managements (and in the case of Envoy, some of its union reps and pilots as I don't see many other AAG regional's pilots selling their managements upgrade/flows like Envoy) is in fact, the original conjecture of this equation, it's just that a combination of Stockholm Syndrome and Battered Wife Syndrome has turned up into down, black into white and left into right.

Ah....crazy times are indeed upon us.

 

No, when an Envoy salesman speaks, it's rock solid fact, so much so, that without question Envoy HAS turned the tide. When eaglefly rebuts that, it's "trolling" or some other comfortable, but inapplicable label used to deflect reality.