I think the PP is easily modifiable in consolidation as a result of agreement. If leverage must be applied, Envoy ALPA has all but proved they can bark for a short period, but ultimatley will roll over and beg like a compliant pooch. Those provisions were simply butter on the biscuit to get a deal at Envoy for near-term stability. I think once the WO's are more balanced and/or they are consolidated, all pilots will be treated equally with whatever contractual flow benefit is negotiated and by seniority. The only wild card then is how any SLI is done in the cade of consolidation or absent that, equal fliw slices for all WO carriers. The end result is that in all likelyhood, any pilot who joins ANY AA WO now really cannot depend on ANY projection beyond the next 18 months or so.

You can if you want, but I think that's just a recipe for new frustration and disappointment. I do realize Mason's sales assumptions and proclomations sound intoxication, but it's rare that snake oil provides real venefit for those that buy it.......unless of course, it has a high alcohol content, which Mason's does not.

 

PSA started the race voting yes for that crap contract. Then they wanted our planes with the pilots and also the same flow.

They picked the planes and upgrades, now they started crying. I do believe Parker will do whatever he plans and that's done, doesn't matter what the WO pilots/management want.

 

Yes, there are critical differences in these two flow mechanisms. Remember, at AAG the industry frequently "changes". It will again in the future and just as Parker has proved before, you either play or pay. In a consolidation scenario or not, I think the flow will be become more balanced among the WO's just as they will be as well and Envoy ALPA wont bark next time having already demonstrated no ability to bite and will play.

 

The key word being "settlement". It was not an arbitral award and that's a critical aspect of its future impact and weight. Arbitrated awards could be a quagmire to toss (modify), even by agreement as individual pilots could cause trouble. Better to have a non arbitrated settlement (no ruling) to modify down the road.

I think that's one reason management avoided arbitration decision so as to provide flexibility down the road. First, though they have to clean up the reamining 824 as that IS and arbitration award.

 

The problem is that there is only a trickle of true "entry-level" regional pilots. That is undeniable. The idea that Envoy will get most if them is mistaken IMO. The "appealing" career progression CLAIMED to be at Envoy now isn't bringing in the necessary numbers and the assumption ghosts will come flocking starting in January (and EVERY month thereafter) isn't a good bet, also IMO.

 

I LOL'ed when I read this and people around me looked.

AAG only "does what they say" when it is for THEIR benefit, not yours. Here at AA, they are implementing contractual items from the merger agreement that benefit them and dragging their feet with dubious excuses regarding contractual items that benefit pilots (and cost them). The Envoy flow is meeting PRESENT requirements because A. It is an arbitral award and B. It also serves the interests of their future timeline (flush the 824 by date X).

You've got Stockholm Syndrome dude with a touch of Battered Wife to go with it if you really believe such nonsense.

 

There are more entry level than you think IMO. Envoy will not attract what they need in its current state. FO pay and quality of life needs to be comparable to the other airlines. The flow needs to be the kicker. Until this happens I expect small numbers of new hires. Retention will become and issue as well as UA and DA continue to hire large numbers.

 

Thank you for pointing this out. eaglefly thinks that any pilot hired by mainline anytime in the next decade has a risk of being furloughed. Given the epic number of retirements coming and he thinks furlough is a concern. We could have another 9/11 style attack and a Great Depression, simultaneously and they still wouldn't need to furlough. AA is losing close to 10% of their pilots per year for the next 15 years. Look kids, this is what an idiot looks like.

 

Only an imbecile makes certain bets on the future and only a moron cashes checks that haven't arrived yet. Look kids..............well, you all get the idea. But you are accurate about one thing.............there are a lot of "kids" running around acting like imbeciles and morons nowadays, especially at Envoy.

 

I'm not pro-management. I pass along the news. You didn't question it when the news projections were bad... it's not my projection; it's theirs. So far, their projections have been fairly accurate.

How many new hires was PSA getting before they were awarded new jets?

You're basing your opinion on our hiring before the flow really starts effecting movement. We've been flowing people the past several years; if we had not been shrinking the movement would already have started. Now that the shrinking has subsided the movement will become much more visible.

AAG already proved that pilots recycle themselves to where the movement is. I'm not disputing your attrition math; I just think they are correct that pilots will go where the best long term movement is. They're already getting increased hiring. We've only hired 108 all year, but over 1/2 of them were in the past 3 months.

I also think that as outlier companies fail, their pilots will recycle to places with the best movement while continuing to apply to LCC and legacies; and that will be the WO's. When a place like Commutair or Silver finally fail, where do you think their pilots will go? If they're looking for movement and flow as a backup, ENY and PDT are their best choices. I happen to think that PDT (and most of the vendors) are operating 50 seat jets that will not get their contract renewed, and where will those pilots go while waiting for LCC and legacy jobs?
Right about the time that happens, places like PSA, CPZ and others will have already hired their last fast upgrade, so where will the movement be?

The industry is going to contract upon itself. They're setting the stage for their WO's to be among the last standing.

By the way, Ric's charts for 2.5/6 were based on hiring 15 a month. They are exceeding that hiring requirement. 1,500 AA new hires over the next 2 years should clean out our entire CA list. That's a lot of upgrades and movement about to start.