Its because you guys need to help cover Republic's flying.


Good Luck!

 

Cuz they're worthless. Seriously the most unhelpful dept we have. I really don't know what they actually do, other than deny everything. I'd talk to your respective rep.

 

Yeah like going into a airline with 2yr upgrade, it can convert into 8yr upgrade. Everything is a gamble in the airlines.

 

You do have to go with facts, however the current upgrade and flow time is meaningless for a new hire, at any regional. You have to look at fleet plans and attrition.

Envoy has guaranteed attrition through the flow, which is in addition to the attrition all airlines will experience in the future. The latest word is the shrinking has finally stopped, with the slowing of the crj transfers and the 175s arriving, envoy is actually (finally) in a good position.

You could go to a regional with a short upgrade and completely miss that, and be the fo forever. Or you could get lucky, it all depends. Facts are important, but don't point to current upgrade times as a fact for a new hire. They are essentially meaningless.

 

Displacement rules would allow him/her to bid anywhere their seniority will hold. As E175's arrive and other fleet types shrink there should be plenty of opportunity to displace to other equipment or bases.

 

Would you accept a job at United airlines tomorrow? Of course you would, the income and lifestyle "projections" outweigh going to the bottom of the seniority list and being potential furlough fodder in the event of another war or major crisis.

Here are the facts:
over 18,000 mainline pilots will retire the next 10 years
AA is going to retire 3800 pilots by 2021 (5 years from now)
We get 50% of those positions (later 35%, and 25%) but for all but the last few hundred it's essentially 50%
50% of 3800 is 1900 (a buffer of 150 for the lower percentage classes)
We only have 1750 pilots that will elect to flow.

So, it is factually correct that contractually we should flow our entire pilot list to American Airlines within the next 6 years.

Those are facts.

Do facts change? of course. Delta said they were hiring 600 before they said they were hiring 1,000. American said they were hiring 600 before they said they were hiring 750

Just because somebody hired now is going to have a hell of an easier time than all of us before them doesn't change the facts.


Oh, and about getting the new planes; the first is to be delivered in 6 more days. None of the other AAG regionals have a program in place and the planes are on their way. Further, flowing to AA has nothing to do with getting new planes.

 

Just to be clear, current FTs have spent 16 1/2 yrs at AE/ ENY. Totally agree with the rest.

I wouldn't hitch my QOL to a <possible> Displacement. See emb145's quote above re: potential future events.

 

I don't disagree with the retirement numbers you have posted or with the "current plans" Envoy/AAG management has for the pilot group.

However, you list many things above that haven't occurred yet, so currently, they aren't facts.

When Envoy's first pilot upgrades that has 7 years exactly at the company, the fact will be that Envoy "currently" has a 7 year upgrade.
When the flow throughs leaving are at 14 years seniority, the fact then will be 14 years to flow.

It's projected to go down, and it may do just that. You may revise the facts monthly or weekly when that happens. It just hasn't happened yet. Knowing AMR/AAG, I just don't bank on anything until it actually happens.

 

You're counting year where there was NO hiring in your flow projection.
How many years the pilot worked at EagleVoy or PDT or PSA is not an accurate reflection of flow.

How many years - with AA hiring pilots - did it take for a pilot to flow.

You are using a lost decade of no real hiring industry wide at major carriers and including that in your flow total.

That is not accurate of how long it takes to flow.

Likewise, with no movement from regionals to majors for the majority of the lost decade your time to upgrade is skewed also.

Those pilots at the legacies WILL retire. Even another 9-11 won't stop the retirements. It could stop growth and maybe allow some contraction, but not enough to outright stop hiring. They have too many pilots retiring.

If the hiring isn't stopping, the flow isn't stopping.

I understand the animosity and distrust towards the company; but they are along for the ride as much as we are. Time doesn't stop.

You want more facts

580 of the last 890 hired at AA came from Envoy.

That's FACT not fiction, not a projection. So, if you're telling guys to use facts; well, there it is.

The flow is working pretty much exactly as they said it would. They're hiring 1,500 over the next two years. Guess where half of them will come from.

 

You know AMR, not AAG.

I will say this, so far AAG has done what they say it will happen. We voted no, they said they will focus us on DFW/ORD, now those are the 2 bases. They said they would give planes away, that happened also. We voted yes and they are saying the fastest way to get into AA is Envoy/PDT/PSA (in that order), seems to be true. They also say things will get better here if we agreed to their terms...

That's happening also.

I'm not saying everything is perfect or that they will screw us over eventually, but at the time being they've been doing what they said it was going to happen.