I'm not sure where you're going with this. It seems you are jumping to an alternate reality where your conditions exist rather than taking into account the messy transition. Your scenario is as possible as any other guess, but we won't know the conditions until it happens.

 

Then just say "AA sucks, and I don't want to work there". That's not so hard. For a 30-something to claim they'd be permanently junior is a disingenuous copout.

 

If you'll notice I said I wasn't applying anywhere not just AA. I'd be permanently junior at all legacy carriers. A lot of 20 something's have already been hired and I'm 3-4 years out of being competitive. It's not a cop out, anyway people get angry when they think I hijack a thread so back on topic, some of us want Envoy and the regional model to exist.

 

What are you talking about?

Retirement #'s and simple math..

So what if you won't ever retire #1 or in the top 200 at a 10,000+ Pilot airline. Even if you got hired 4 years from now you could easily become a senior widebody FO, get great schedules for 15-20 years and make around $190-200/hr. (If you look at where the rates will be several years from now with the % increases.) thats over 5x what you make now. Plus benefits. Double what you will ever see at a regional topped out. And thats for an FO.

Your argument makes no sense about being permanently junior.

 

I was looking at United's lowest seniority numbers for each plane/seat last night. There are pilots 10,000 down on the seniority list flying left seat in the 737 and A320.

 

And the BZZT THERAPY SESSION continues! Gentlemen, you can't fix stupid!

 

Hey man I tried to stop it this time.

As to the other guys if I can't be top 1% I don't want the job, it's a personal decision, sorry it bothers you for some reason.

 

 

I'd rather be in the top 20% of narrowbody FOs than in the top 1% of a regional. QOL and pay will still be better even retiring in the right seat of a 737.

The reason people are bothered, is because it isn't just about you. The industry is at an unprecedented turning point that it hasn't seen in years. Pilots need to be pulling together to leverage the potential gains industry wide, while you're saying "just vote yes on whatever comes across the table, so I can stay put where I am".

I can understand that logic coming from someone in their late 50s, with 30+ years invested in their job. It may be counter to the goals of the majority, but I understand.

But for such a sentiment to come from someone with 30 years left in their career is beyond mind-boggling. You're getting so much push back from everyone, because your attitude is throwing everyone else under the bus for the sake of you having a little comfort.

 

LOL---someone said this can't happen. Right. I think --- please forgive me if I'm incorrect, but I think the type is already on the US Air CBA ... and their first year rate is consistent with being able to do this...and their competition is laying down the gauntlet. So, I think it WILL happen and sooner rather than later.

I agree that there will be fallout with consolidation. It will hurt some (and it may hurt me (wish I were 30 something))...but I think it really is going to happen.

RE: pilot shortage...yeah. I agree there are thousands of folks out there but ... but there is the issue of currency, pay, and QOL. FWIW, I'm one of those guys who had to go away, made lot of money outside this industry, and was able (and insane?) to come back. Most people can't take that pay cut...and won't live this life. So, I'd say that there IS a shortage, it is only now beginning to manifest itself. I think kids (and the sense of ... um .. entitlement) demonstrated by today's kids and the much higher cost (actual cost, not relative cost) is going to severely limit the support for the regional model. Added with that is the new ATP rule which started August 1...so all the "do it as you can" part 61 schools are going to not be a pipeline. That argues the new pipeline schools will charge even more...I just don't see the long term economics supporting that model.

Bzzt...I understand (and empathize) with where you are. Frankly, I'm afraid I'm in the same place (age) without the seniority (having to start over again). I still think this is where the industry needs to go to move toward the wages and career progression we all hoped for when we entered it (me in 2000 originally). Frankly, I'd like to see the development of a "universal seniority" in the industry that would start today with every new hire to any 121 carrier. It wouldn't hurt todays guys but in 30-40 years would allow for protection against required career changes (whether due to company constriction or personal changes). Seems odd we're one of the few industries where experience counts for everything but pays for nothing if you change. Just a thought...and would be in the long term interest of the labor side of this industry (yeah...that really would be a long shot wouldn't it ....)