Not at all. Just because that point was made as a result of your post, doesn't mean it was directed at you personally. It was a point directed to the thread participants. That's common on forums.

 

Nonsense, nonsense, nonsense.........

 

Bad information ?

By all means correct me with specifics. I'm all ears.

Again, many of you guys slap the "troll" label on anyone and anything you disagree with (ostensibly in the hope you can silence others, no doubt). Labeling others that ad nauseum doesn't make it any more accurate.

 

So you can't refute the facts so you decide to make a personal attack on a person's language skills. Pretty soon you will climb on your high horse and claim you never make personal attacks...and play the victim card again.

How many languages do you speak, by the way? Pretty slimy to make a personal attack on someone like that. But we all know what your true colors are.

 

I just gave you some facts a couple of posts back. One of your guys immediately responded stating "there I go again, twisting the facts." You can't "twist the facts." They are what they are.

I stand by my facts. Today Envoy has:

8 year upgrade
16.5 year flow

Refute that.

 

Their guy?

The longevity of the pilots currently flowing does not serve as an accurate prediction of the time to flow for a new hire.

Can YOU refute THAT?

 

I know you're hopelessly biased against anything I say or do, so this latest batch of manure is of no surprise. For the record it was HIM that initiated an assault against me using your favorite "troll" babble (inaccurately applied) and making inaccurate claims that I give "bad information" that he cannot or will not validate, even when asked. I then read his posts and couldn't understand half of what he was talking about with let's face it.........abysmal grammar.

If you're inferring I'm making some ethnic reference to who he may be in real life (which I have no clue), you can go pound sand. My observations (which let's face it are dead on balls valid) about his communication abilities in his posts were my focus. Again, it was HIM that initiated conflict with ME, just as you love to do, so your criticism here is unwarranted, Mr. Pot. I know that won't stop your obsessive harangue against me, so continue to knock yourself silly if it gives you a warm, fuzzy.

You know, just because you are miserable at Envoy doesn't mean it's my fault.

 

He can't.

 

True, but likewise, the projections being used for ANY flow can not be predicted, yet many are doing jut that. In reality, it is simply an unquantified variable.

 

You are one of the pro Envoy guys right? The ones who jump all over anyone who says something negative about Envoy.

I agree that the date of pilots currently flowing may not necessarily be an indicator of a future flow time frame. What I can give you though is the last pilot to flow was around the 330's on the list. Let's just look at those hired through the end of 2011 since that's about when the current agreement of 50% ends. The end of 2011 hires are around the 1710s. So, 1380ish guys to flow. If you flow 300 per year, you are looking at about 4.6 years to get through the end of 2011. So, about October 2020 until the last 2011 hire makes it over from today. So, there's your company math.

That's saying that Envoy will flow 30 guys each and every month for the next 4.6 years from today without stopping. We already know that the flow is going to stop around June. We don't know how long though, it depends on how many come back.

Attrition will likely help improve your numbers above by the way. Now, let's look at the fleet. We know the CRJ's aren't going anywhere soon, if at all. The pilot crunch is on big time as PSA can't find guys to fly what AAG wants them to. Let's just say that Envoy lands with 35 CRJ's, 90 145's and 40 175's to fly for the next two years solid. And let's figure 1750 total guys needed to do that. Sure, you guys have 1/3 or more of the company on reserve today, but as those 175's keep trickling in and the CRJ's stay and 145's stay due to cheap gas, you will need more pilots.

With 1900ish guys on the list today, I would say by the end of this year, you will start hearing the company squawking about not having the pilots to fly what AAG wants them to.

I will admit that if the company honors the flow, which they have already proved they aren't going to, coupled with the math above, yes, it adds up to a 6 year flow for everyone today. A projection just like you guys are so happy to talk about.

Here's your big IF. Will Envoy get enough new hires to replace the pilots leaving via flow and attrition? Hiring 15 per month isn't going to cut it. One thing I can guarantee you is......Envoy ain't gonna park any airplanes that AAG wants them to fly, flow be d**ned.

There's your big problem as I see it. This goes along with the very rosy picture painted above. My best guess is that Envoy will flow out the 824 as soon as possible and then, if not before if 824 guys are needed for staffing, you'll start to hear the company's complaints about how they can't flow due to the necessity of staffing Envoy frames. They've already proven that with an overstaffed situation, they're willing to go against you guys for a mere 5 guys in one month. This is even before the big flow slowdown of the summer while Letter T's return.