Yes, at least for a little while and that was the point of my "reluctant agreement" statement to modification of the PP flow provisions instead of by force. A consolidation scenario is very likely to dilute the PP agreement for present Envoy pilots IMO further slowing the timelines being projected at present.

 

I don't think anyone who is more than 1.5 to 2 years from flowing at any of the WOs thinks they are going to flow in the projected time. I think EVY/PDT will merge and perhaps PSA might merge If AAG buys another small regional or maybe we will be sold off. No clue though honestly. If they bought someone it would likely be someone like AWAC.

 

I think 7 at PSA? Haha they must see what's happening. No one wants to work for peanuts and sit reserve a long time anymore. Things are likely going to get worse before they get better. It's likely going to take some sort of mass exodus (2017) to get AAG to throw more money at the problem. And by then it will likely be too late.

 

2017? Bro, it's already too late. Conference call today said Envoy has 1550 active pilots and approx 150 jets. At the very least 100 will leave by the end of the year via flow and probably another 50 through attrition. That's 15 airplanes parked that they could use flying around since RAH and PDT are also struggling to cover their flying.

The time to act is now, so yeah, on second thought 2017 sounds about right.


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Envoy will almost certainly lose a lot more than 50 pilots to outside attrition by the end of the year.

 

Any details on the pay proposal?

 

Not sure who you are talking to at Endeavor but I have never heard this rumor from a single pilot (and I've heard plenty of them). No doubt us pulling out the 200's is only temporary. But, from now on the only regionals that will survive are the ones who can hire.

 

The beauty is that soon NONE of them will be able to hire sufficient pilots as there is simply an inadequate number of them in an increasingly shrinking pipeline. Considering major airline retirements over the next decade, this situation will eventually touch the legacy airlines, but by then I cannot see how many RJ's will even still be in operation. I say "beauty" in that it is the very people who orchestrated this situation will be the ones that suffer. They have been in deep, deep denial and evidence of that today is that are still doing nothing but kicking the can further down the road.

This profession has gone from a once desirable career to becoming just another job that is far too expensive and a pain in the arse to tolerate. As such, it's being avoided. The patient has cancer, it has been in an increasingly symptomatic situation and it has denied its symptoms, avoided treatment and procrastinated too long and now is entering stage IV where a cure can only be achieved by aggressive and drastic action that will be very unpleasant to the patient.

I wonder if it is too late already.

In the interim, it appears each of the legacies are taking a different approach. Actually, Delta and UAL are on similar pages and AA has gone in the opposite direction. Over the next months and years one of those two paths will prove to be more successful then the other and that will impact the pilots at the regionals tied to that particular path. I think what looks like one thing now, will morph into something different in the future and so present regional pilots should try to consider who has a better track record of success in the past and factor that in to where you want to position yourself in relation to a particular path.

 

Negative. On the teleconference they said they wouldn't comment on the specifics of it. I hate to sound pessimistic, but we can already assume what AAG will say.

 

Got it. I assumed AAG was the one that presented it to you.