I'm not sure if it is true, but I have heard as many as 500 pilots are enrolled in the pipeline program. I am not sure how many of those are there for Envoy. I still believe AAG will have to make it more lucrative to attract the numbers of pilots we will need. They may be able to pull out of the new hire problem just fine. Time will tell

 

Well, I guess I nipped a little of that in the post above before reading this.

From my POV, unless Envoy starts raking in 40/month immediately, then contraction occurs and contraction is NOT a good reinforcer of maintaining any flow projection in the 5-6 year range that is now claimed. Once Envoy becomes an RAH or PSA and cannot itself maintain stability in its present feed footprint, then Parker makes his next move of shifting.....or more accurately REshifting assets and flying away from Envoy so as not to overburden. Obviously, the primary goal will be to protect E-175 ops and so look for smaller E-jets to go back to the boneyard, which is easy and quick. At some point though, a longer term plan for ALL the WO's must be embraced and acted upon considering the realities in the regional pilot procurement business. What that is could be one of several moves and I suspect now, old "kick the can" Doug is probably being fluid in his plans as there is still time to do that.

As for the flow, it will continue at minimum aggregate rate until the 824 are gone, which due to Letter T could be from a couple of months to as long as early next year. They may or may not trickle some flows during the process and/or may stop at any point DURING that process if longer then anticipated. I would think presenting the most positive environment to get through the busy Summer season will occur, but come the slow doldrums of fall, if Letter T's are still rolling in, any trickle might not be needed. Once the 824 are gone, I would anticipate metering to minimum flow rate and what is that.........like, 25/month ? At any rate, in fairly short order (within 18 months), I'd expect possible consolidation via merger or asset (which includes pilots) acquisition from failed regionals and as Doug says, "the landscape has changed".

The landscape is always changing at this legacy/regional network and so nothing can be counted on tomorrow and anyone who claims such is truly reading tea leaves.

 

Even if Envoy did have 500, they all wont be available in the time frame Envoy would need them to maintain present size. Considering what else is out there (virtually nothing), they'd need the entire pipeline within the next 18 months and that assumes EVERYONE in that pipeline is coming to Envoy which doesn't sound realistic. Additionally, pipeline pilots are usually bound to academic schedules and must complete college educational requirements too, so they are only spit out into the airlines in periodic spurts like when semesters end.

I'm skeptical this source of pilots will be anything more then a fraction of those needed by ALL regionals going forward and airlines will need more while this source stays stable, at best.

 

Moving up 400 numbers is fine unless the total pilot count dropped by that amount. Moving up 400 numbers with a static pilot count and a contracting pilot count are two VERY different things. The critical key is can Envoy maintain its present pilot count in the future (for 6 years) to ensure their count does not contract which is required for your path to AA to meet claims ?

 

Their under six year projection was based on newhires now and since last May. Comparing that to guys who've been here when there was no flowing due to no hiring at AA is not a valid comparison.

Their math on flow being under six years for those hired after last May does work just based off mandatory retirements alone.

That doesn't mean any number of things couldn't upset the apple cart; but that is pure speculation. I actually expect it to shorten as more guys leave for other airlines as hiring picks up.

What's factual is the flow is and has been working the past 5 years catching up on all the guys who've been trapped here during the lost decade.

AAG has been doing much better than AMR ever did at keeping the flow going. Not perfectly, and those issues are being dealt with in the appropriate manner.

There are many things that need fixing. However, their plan to create a cradle to grave career is progressing pretty well.

 

Ah...........it's their math that you're going on ?

I see. Is this the same math source that is still claiming a 2.5 year upgrade ?

At any rate, please present the specifics of their math that you are validating here. It would be much appreciated.

 

Does the same go for stupid financial advice?

 

This board is largely useless when you have the same two trolls posting over and over all of these assumptions they are making that have no basis whatsoever in fact. And to top it off, neither one of them work here.

Cujo's posting is correct. The math works. Someone who could only get hired at Allegiant, a severe downgrade for an Envoy FO by the way (might as well go to Great Lakes), and someone who slipped through the hiring process cracks by flowing over to AA from a long ago flow agreement very obviously cannot do math correctly.

AAG is truly in the process of making this a cradle to grave program. Their plans are to have Envoy as the premiere regional and the model by which all other carriers follow suit. We are already 95% there. A few adjustments and tweaks are being made but as you can see, the FLOW WORKS. It's been working. Not like when eaglefly was hired and only had to do an "Eagle" interview. Now, the interview process is based exactly on the the AA interview footprint so that there are no longer anyone "slipping through the cracks."

Keeping the CRJ's indefinitely, EMB 140's and 145's returning to the property, and continued delivery of 175's are setting Envoy up for success. We just announced 87 upgrades last month. You can expect everything management has announced in the past to come to fruition.

 

Ah...so we have to base our descision on your Envoy cataclysmic predictions that always fail Mr. Eaglefly Nostradamus? The last person we would take an advise from this forum is you.

 

How about this one. Where's Charlie Bucket's upgrade as advertised? Junior CA is 3/08. Ol' Charlie is supposed to upgrade this November.