Again, if 300 flow this year and 300 next year, that's 600 pilots. If you figure half that number leave for outside employment (reasonable and conservative considering historical numbers), that's 900 pilots. To not shrink which negatively impacts both advancement within a status (off reserve, etc.) and change of status (upgrade), Envoy will need at a MINIMUM 38 pilots/month and more importantly each and every month. If Envoy cannot meet that metric, it shrinks and shrinking CAN impact the flow negatively. The reason they withheld 5 puddly pilots in March (aside from the fact they could), is ostensibly because looking forward they would be............yup, short of pilots.

Too few pilots = impeded flow to AA.

Q.E.D.

 

So you are making future projections based on current hiring. Hiring during which envoy as a whole has been overstaffed. Hmm...

If you had posted this while envoy was stopping the flow, cancelling vacation and offering critical coverage every day, then I'd say it has some merit. But until then...

Some regionals have been doing just that for a while now. Envoy isn't one of them.

 

And if/when it in fact DOES impede the flow, I'll say you were right. But until then...

 

As you previously admonished me, try to concentrate on what I write and not get carried away like the others. The point was it ALREADY has impeded the flow, that's why they withheld 5 pilots in March. Their present metric is insufficient and they are obviously projecting that forward.

 

Can you provide the language which they violated? Or since you seem to be so in touch with what's happening, maybe something from ALPA that says as much? I have yet to see anything that says they did. I should have clarified that in my reply so as to avoid getting you riled up.

 

I'm suggesting that Envoy will be able to hire about 15 per month average for the entire year of 2016. I'm projecting that from the dismal actual numbers of hires you have brought in since 2013.

The hiring numbers I posted have nothing to do with Envoy stopping the flow, cancelling vacation or offering critical coverage. It's just hard numbers on how many your crack team of recruiters were able to bring in for the past three years.

I'm not projecting low or even high hiring numbers based off of wild a** optimistic assumptions. Just hard numbers that you and the rest of the Sales Team conveniently ignore. Envoy has a steep hill to climb. If they can't make it up the hill, it will affect the flow in the future. Just like Joe Namath, I guarantee it.

 

Regarding the flow ?

A contractual violation isn't necessary to prove to demonstrate this point. Yes, they can contractually withhold, but did so for the very reasons I described in that post which is essentially because they can. They don't need a viable excuse (and with present staffing, didn't have one) and that reality is as much of an accurate indicator of the future then a contractual violation would be, in some respects more so. Anyone who would either disregard that reality or rationalize that with semantics like you are is again, simply setting themselves up for disappointment.

As for contractual violations in general, well, let's face it. Envoy management's record there is well, shall we say less then ideal ? If semantics are your foundation in this respect, I think your house of flow is very shaky indeed, but you are the occupant and so whether you sleep with a window open or strap yourself to the bed is your choice. Personally, based on what I've seen as of late, I'd be sleeping on the porch if it were me.

 

Again, I'm not ignoring them. In fact, the hiring numbers seem to be accurate.

What you fail to grasp is why a company would purposefully not hire more than they think they'll need in the next 3-5 months. Think about that before you reply.

You have brought up these numbers as if they are proof that envoy is understaffed and that the flow will soon be stopped as a result. What you are ignoring is that envoy doesn't exhibit those other signs that I previously mentioned.

 

So to be clear, when you said "impede" you didn't mean violate the contract; you meant to meter.

 

Correct. Many things can impede the flow (meaning to slow or retard movement). That term has no contractual relationship as far as I know. Outside forces (from Envoy management) can impede the flow like those of AA fleet and staffing for the near future that just hasn't been finalized or disseminated and the Letter T situation. Likewise, economic or political issues could impede the flow due to impact on hiring at AA.

I have never stated, nor do I believe the 824 agreement will be violated per se. The protected pilot agreement is something in my opinion that is very likely to be modified by agreement, but those factors haven't yet manifested themselves yet. Consolidation involving Envoy would be a major factor in that future consideration, but again that is simply my opinion.