The funny thing is, the anti-envoy clan keeps claiming the "salesman" are convinced the flow is iron-clad and that it can't be violated. Nobody has EVER said that. Contracts can and will be violated all the time. What we're saying is that it doesn't behoove AAG management to do a complete 180 of their recruitment plans. My opinion (as a current employee who is more familiar with day-to-day operations then you, SayAlt, and eaglefly is) is that both envoy management and AAG will do whatever it takes to keep the flow moving along as advertised. They're doing it as we speak and we can agree to disagree at the extent to which it is working.

While the new-hire pool is certainly dwindling, it's not empty. The reality is that all airlines are competing for the same group of pilots, which is the exact reason why pilots such as SayAlt talk bad about envoy. It's a cowardly move, as I could care less about Skywest. I hardly know anything about them so I'm not going to bombard their forum with lies, scare tactics, etc.

As for former employees such as yourself and eaglefly, the only reason why I could imagine that you're essentially guaranteeing the flow won't work as advertised and that any current FO will be here for a long long time, is that you're jealous and angry that it's not how it worked for you. For you, you bailed and want to see a validation in your career move. Jealousy and regret is an ugly stench and it's all over you.

 

I think the flow is working well right now. Envoy/AAG has made a critical error by holding back 5 people a couple of months ago. That small action has hurt their credibility with the pilot cadre who desperately want to believe there is a way out of the Envoy quagmire.

My opinion is that once the 824 are gone and when/if the staffing problems I've noted come to fruition, you'll see a change of the flow where 30 aren't going each month, maybe 10 are. I say when/if because AAG could decide at the last minute that cheap feed is too valuable and they might decide to do something that surpasses Endeavor to attract the limited amount of aviators out there. Unprecedented is the word here as I believe AAG will do nothing until it absolutely has to. The grass is on fire in the barnyard now and that fire has crept to the edge of the building and is burning enough that the bottom boards of the barn are now smoking. As we know with AAG, the barn will become fully engulfed before meetings start on what to do.

The hiring well is fairly dry right now with all of the regionals competing for the same limited number of bodies. If AAG offered big bucks like Endeavor or something better, other guys who have gotten out completely or are working in another segment of aviation might decide to get back in. This is happening at Endeavor now.

Eagle and especially Envoy have typically violated agreements on a regular basis and made the quality of life unbearable for some. They continue with the page from the AMR playbook to aggressively discipline and punish instead of making the work environment friendly and easy to navigate.

I bailed due to the belief that I was far enough down the list that the flow would stop or be severely reduced before it got to me. I wasn't keen on making Envoy a career always waiting and hoping for that flow carrot that the company likes to dangle and then jerk away. The dismal Envoy hiring numbers I posted yesterday that Skyvector has buried his head in the sand about, were enough evidence that things weren't too rosy from my point of view. Low hiring numbers = stagnation and regression when Envoy is "right-sized" and no longer shrinking.

You've mentioned in the past that decisions about the flow and how they calculate the numbers were well above your paygrade and that people smarter than you came up with them. I assume from your postings that you were hired in 2011 or after. With that seniority, I would advise taking stock and looking at the situation. You may decide Envoy works for you and you want to wait for the flow. That's a personal decision and if it's yours and you've taken the time to examine the situation then that's great.

 

What a bunch of horse dump.

2 year commitment? HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

 

...and what we have here is failure to communicate. To wit, the Envoy sales team here is convinced at least I am claiming the flow is or will completely fail. I have NEVER said that. I have simply said the present math that has been represented here for the purposes of maximum recruitment is assumptive and unreliable. Those are two different things. My opinion as one who has seen multiple managements there all doing the same thing is that they will prioritize THEIR interests in providing that benefit to the pilots. It's really no different then any other contractual provision like reserve or the LTFO debacle. In fact, they have ALREADY demonstrated my beliefs last month by withholding a scant 5 pilots from flow in a grossly overstaffed airline. Even Envoy ALPA has told their pilots they expect management to meter in the future to minimum flow rate in perpetuity. It IS in both AAG and Envoy's best interest to have a working flow, but that is NOT the same thing as altruistically placing your needs above theirs. When they are in sync, the flow will run smoother and faster and when they are not, they will maximize their interests before yours and that may be because of internal factors which they wont communicate or outside global or economic factors that they cannot control. I think you better understand that or again, I think you are setting yourself up for more frustration and disappointment.

It's nothing personal, it's just business.

Yes, it IS dwindling and Envoy's recent new-hire classes prove that as is the fact the flow option isn't as enticing as they had planned. Considering the not-as-yet empty pool will only dry up further, one can only come to the rational conclusion that that effort will not only get harder to adapt to with a dwindling supply of possible lures, but consistently more impossible to fulfill even with those. I DO know something about Envoy having worked for their predecessor for nearly a quarter century and one learns a few things along the way, both the easy way and the hard way (although it seems some there now are resistant to learning ANYTHING from the past or listening more to those who were there before) and one observation is that while you may think you have it all figured out, you don't. I realize that may sting a bit. I went through that stage too, but grew out of it. Again, a byproduct of that last realization is that some there feel compelled to produce embellishment and even embracing lying and that not only does nothing good for Envoy as it sheds them in a further bad light, but also is counter-productive to the very worry those doing have............the delay of their own flow to AA. Why don't you try to both of yourselves a favor and keep it real ?


I cannot speak for anyone else, but this is the same, tired old claim that is baseless regarding me and quite frankly, the more your clan posts these, the more I rebut, so if you want less of me, you have another option, although I realize it isn't as emotionally satisfying as this one. I do understand that like some of the other things your group have erroneously convinced yourselves of in order not to face the significant possibility your path to AA isn't likely to follow your desired timeline, even your worst case scenario IMO isn't likely to take the time it took me and as I have stated before (which your clan always seems to forget or ignore), I think you'll make out pretty well by comparison, in fact better considering your ages and advancement schedules at AA. Jealousy and anger have no place in my psyche regarding present Envoy pilots future flow to AA as I am perfectly at peace with where I have been and am and embracing either one of those emotions regarding things I cannot change be it my path or your potential path serves no purpose for me and only would make me more like many of you who perceive things that aren't there, believe things that aren't reality and then use those misguided perceptions to act in error.

 

The commitment is if you want the bonus. If you want to get out quickly, you don't have to sign the paper. Go to class and you're free to go as you wish.

 

Although it is impossible to determine how this will impact hiring and thus flow at AA, 2016 is forecast to include a fleet reduction of 37 aircraft, more numerous in the latter half of the year after Summer. 2017 will include a further reduction in mainline fleet numbers. PBS will also be activated and the estimates as to increased efficiency in pilot usage range from about 5-15%. 37 aircraft theoretically means 370 less pilots (if usage stays the same) and the PBS factor could range from 750-2200 pilots, but I would angle more toward the lower figures in the PBS staffing componenet. Concurrently, Parker plans to INCREASE regional fleet count by 20 aircraft so, if anything he'll need MORE regional pilots over the next 18 months then now, or at least as many.

That's a tall order indeed, but it should give one pause as there may be another shoe that will drop this Fall regarding these issues and staffing and pilot need at AA. No one can conclude any certainties yet (at least outside the inner senior management circle at AAG), no one really knows, but it would be prudent to not ignore these potentially unbalanced forces. The Letter T issue only exacerbates these forces. Too many at Envoy may be themselves in a Charlie Bucket mentality and should that come to fruition, they'll have only themselves to blame for not taking a more cautious approach to the AA flow.

As usual, just my .02...........

 

Don't think for a minute that would slow me down. If I was at that sewer of a place and Daddy Delta, or Yo-nited called me with a class date-the speed at which I'd be gone can't be measured with existing technology.

They could stick their paper where the sun don't shine.

Easily defensible in court. I was just following past company practice. Reference the ALPA contract with the "flow-thru". They agreed and signed, then crawfished and screwed everyone on property with a pilots lisc.

You'd win it.

 

Thinking out loud and curious how it works...

What's the language on the commitment? If you pay the money back is there anything else legally holding one there? How is it prorated?

So you'd be out the taxes. What's a bonus tax rate?? Prolly 25%ish

If prorated, after six months you wouldn't be out of pocket at least.

 

Your first paragraph brings up some valid points that I would like to add to as it pertains to AAG regionals in general. This is going to be a long post so bear with me

As it currently stands AAG is allowed a regional fleet of 75% of its mainline narrowbody fleet. In addition, from 2016 onward 40% of AAG mainline narrowbody fleet may include RJ's from 66-76 seats with total count of all RJ's including small and large RJ's must fit within that 75% total.

Assuming the MD-80 fleet is parked, the 757 is reduced down to roughly 25 internationally configured models and all A321 and B738 deliveries are taken plus the 20 E190s in limbo at the end of 2017 you finish with a mainline narrowbody fleet of
A319: 125
A320: 50ish (some early models have been retired)
A321: 220
B738: 305
B757: 25
E190: 20
Total: 720

Taking that final number multiplied by 75% you get an allowed total RJ count of 540 with 288 of those allowed to be between 66-76 seats. Today's RJ count with outstanding orders accounted for include

165: E70 E75 operated between Compass, RAH and Envoy
118: CR9 operated between Mesa and PSA
69: CR7 operated by SKW, PSA and ENY (22 currently count as large RJ)
118: EMB 145 operated by ExpressJet, TSA and ENY
132: CR2 operated by SKW, ExpressJet, Air Wisconsin and PSA
11: DH8-300 operated by PDT (only 300's count toward total)

283 large RJ's if 22 CR7s are reconfigured and 613 total RJs. While I agree that the large RJ fleet is growing there is going to be some serious pain among small RJ operators as AAG removes small RJs to stay within total RJ fleet count. I'll let everyone else speculate where those 60-80 removals come from. AAG's plan is no different than Delta or United in regards to RJs they're just a few years behind.

How the A320NEO and B737MAX play into those numbers or if CR7 and E70 eventually get removed to allow more E75 or CR9 options to be executed is speculation at this point

 

Not trying to derail the dirty diaper toss, does anyone know if this only applies to a specific type of 135 work? Have a load of 135 helicopter time and curious if they consider it. I can already assume what the answer is. Better yet, can anyone point to a place where the details are specified? Thank you.