Envoy
02-27-2017 | 04:01 PM
#1311
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Where are you getting the 4-5 year estimate? 550 pilot group, flow 4-6 per month (I heard it's 6 now) at 6 per month that's a 7.5 year flow, if its only 4 per month than that number is 11.5 years.
02-27-2017 | 05:12 PM
#1312
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He's assuming a certain rate of attrition. ANY WO could do the same and lower their projections.
02-27-2017 | 05:16 PM
#1313
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Joined: Dec 2016
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From: Line holder, barely
More growth = faster
More attrition = faster
Recession = slower
AA needs more = faster. I think if mainline needs more bodies, they will ravage all regionals rather than cancel flights for want of crewmen
02-27-2017 | 05:42 PM
#1314
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flow will up to 5/mo at 600 pilots. Then 1 more for every 125 on property. 1 in 125 means basic flow is in 125 months. Then take out top 100 not flowing. Take out 20 months. Then add some growth to 6 flows and #550 (450 net) becomes 450/6 = 75 mos. then add some outside attrition, say 1% or 6 monthly, say 2/mo above you, goes to 450/(6+2) = 56 months. There is your 4.5-5 yrs for a NH today
More growth = faster
More attrition = faster
Recession = slower
AA needs more = faster. I think if mainline needs more bodies, they will ravage all regionals rather than cancel flights for want of crewmen
More growth = faster
More attrition = faster
Recession = slower
AA needs more = faster. I think if mainline needs more bodies, they will ravage all regionals rather than cancel flights for want of crewmen
Last edited by Flying101; 02-27-2017 at 05:55 PM.
02-27-2017 | 05:50 PM
#1315
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Joined: Dec 2016
Posts: 256
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From: Line holder, barely
I gotcha man, thanks. I don't think that will be the case in the next year or so. PDT is in the best position to cover AWACs flying out of PHL. PDT would have to hire close to 400 pilots to cover AWAC flying. Based on your formula 450 (current with flow) + 350 (50 went else where) divides by 9 (6 original + 3.. 1 for every 125) flow comes around 7.5 years. PDT challenge will be finding, hiring, and, training 400 pilots over the next 10-12 months.
02-27-2017 | 06:00 PM
#1317
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Joined: Jun 2015
Posts: 482
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400! 400!@!@. Are you kidding? PDT would be thrilled to be at 700 by year end. 40-50 flows, plus attrition. Means 60-70 just to run in place. Then there's training. PDT does not yet have an in house sim operational. Expected May. Then training staff. Lotsa lotsa growing pains with concomitant mobility, of course! Goes hand in hand. Mobility comes from growth - comes with growing pains
02-27-2017 | 07:18 PM
#1319
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Joined: Dec 2016
Posts: 256
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From: Line holder, barely
PDT would love to cover the lift. But reality bites. At 30 NH/mo they are groaning under the training weight. If they can add 300 this year -FABULOUS for all PDT NH now
02-27-2017 | 07:45 PM
#1320
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Joined: Nov 2016
Posts: 2,607
Likes: 12
iPad Air 2 for EFB.
I can't really speak to reserve stuff. I'm not 'out there' yet.
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