LoneStar32

lol, quite the opposite. They won't go down because the cost of them to train you won't go down either. I hate to be the dose of reality, but the pilot shortage is officially over. All the retirements are going to do is help to cover the reduced flying/restructuring that will take place after this crises. With the shortage over these airline sponsored flight schools will also come to an end. There is no reason for a Regional like Republic to subsidize a program like LIFT when they no longer have a need for pilots. The Majors won't hire again for years which means little movement of pilots from the Regionals. Expect hiring mins to skyrocket again, like 3000TT with 500ME.

Domahmegok

Google pilot aptitude test, there are tons of free online tests that are the same as the ones used by employers. The test is not hard, practice basic math questions, multiplication/division. Brush up on basic physics. I would get get a joystick and rudder peddles to practice if you’re serious about the test. Don’t forget about the interview portion of the test, prepare for questions about motivation, dedication, leadership. Especially in this market, they want to know you can stand the ups and downs.

Finally, I believe the pass criteria would be raised now that pilots are not in demand, the school will probably change to a flow thru program instead of guaranteed FO, and loan repayment will be reduced or eliminated. Not to mention either a fleet reduction or elimination of some of the subsidies. Worse case is CFI goes from salaried to hourly contract with no benefits.

Everyone is is in crisis mode, cost cutting is on everyone’s mind.

Domahmegok

The largest costs for these schools are the planes, Lift has a new fleet of DA40’s, probably on a lease that are fixed costs which costs 300-400k each? Imagine having 40-50 mortgages at the same time and paying a full staff, not to mention annuals, maintenance, overhauls, etc. plus they were subsidizing some of the training costs to entice students. Those subsidies will probably be first thing eliminated, no more Bose headsets for students, new iPads, etc.

unfortunately, it’s going to be a turbulent ride ahead. The only upside is a vaccine is found quickly and travel could return to pre 2020 levels within a year or two. By that time, you should have your ATP mins and a slight chance of getting hired.

I’m still in the game, just pushed back another year or two now and realistic with my expectations. Right now got to make sure the bills get paid first.

powersmurfuk1

So did a bit of homework today and called two flight schools in the area. As expected, their pricing have come down with regards to plane hire p/h and also the rate of instruction.

I suspect, as the economy gets worse, that prices will also continue to fall. All about supply and demand.

LoneStar32

Really? You called two flight schools that happen to still be open and not only are they open and operating despite stay at home orders for nearly all states, but they have already lowered their prices due to this crises? Don't take offense if I am still skeptical.

Flights schools have a very thin profit margin so they cannot lower prices unless costs go down. Maybe they temporally lowered hourly rates temporally because gas is so cheap? But it has nothing to do with supply and demand. At my old flight school if they didn't have enough students to keep all the aircraft flying all day every day they didn't lower prices, they just kept the aircraft hangered where they were not incurring a cost. They would lose money if they flew the aircraft at any rates lower then what they were charging.

Valiant

In your calculations. Aren't you assuming that people will stop/reduce travelling on airplanes??

LoneStar32

yes, at least for the next 2 to 3 years there will most likely be a reduction.

deftone

It doesnt change much in the big picture, but only Lifts few initial planes were leased, the fleet of 40+ on site now are fully owned.

And there has been talk in this thead and elsewhere about Lift only having one location and possibly too many CFIs in future, well it hasnt been officially announced yet, but the second campus will be announced later in the year, details are still being worked out, and perhaps the virus situation will change things, but things are moving behind the scenes. There is already a TX base for winter ops that was very successful this year.

Valiant

I will be spending 2 to 3 years in training.
What might the hiring scenario look like when I emerge from training.

Bcz of economic conditions leisure travel will slow.
But necessary travel will still be there albeit might try to find cheaper means in the form of buses and trains maybe.

It'll be interesting to see how Fractionals/Corporate industry is effected.

Domahmegok

Latest from Lift is no classes until Fall 2020.

I guess it it works out for me, few more months of saving before the big change.