I have no qualms with your ticket price or revenue number. But you’re equating a 40% raise to that total revenue not total pilot costs. And you are using a per quarter revenue. Unless I have misunderstood you again? I feel like I am just misreading your math somehow.


My math…

Pilots make up 28% of our workforce. Frontiers total salary costs last year totaled 954M. It’s impossible to get to 400M per quarter with a 40% raise based on those numbers.

Let’s just say pilots cost 500M per year for easy math. And let’s give our contract a 50% raise after all benefits are computed again for easy math. Thats only a $250M hit for the whole YEAR.

So 3.775B plus 250M = 4.025B in revenue required to have the same 80M profit. Divide that 4.025B in revenue by the 33.3M passengers we carried and you get $120.88 per passenger.

$7 change from the current ticket price. That doesn’t include the benefit of having more airplanes, more passengers, with more mature markets, with a revamped route network…all things Barry literally said yesterday. He also has mentioned reaching 5B in revenue very soon.


All math comes off of recently filed 10K

 

credit card $$ is where there is a ton of growth to come with profitability with Frontier. In the 4th quarter they saw an increase of 25% in credit card acquisitions along with 10% higher spend. As they add first class product this will continue to go up because unlike Delta’s Skypesos you will actually be able to get upgraded regularly on Frontier.

Our loyalty program is like 1% the size of United or Delta, so even if we can increase that by 7% it’s hundreds of millions of dollars of profit on an annual basis

point is, just like how the legacy’s copied the ULCC’s in basic economy the same is about to happen in reverse with premium and credit cards.

Will be as successful? Probably not, but will it be good enough to produce 10% profits for Fromtier long term, yes I do think that.

 

Huh?

In order to determine the amount of additional TICKET price needed (not ticket and ancillary but JUST ticket), we need to know the actual ticket (fare) revenue per passenger. It was about $44.

Now, we need to know how many passengers we carried. It was about 33.2M. That math comes to 1,460M in just FARE revenue. Raising the fare price by $10 would raise revenue to 1,792M or a difference of 332.8M.

There were 2202 pilots on payroll as of Dec 31, 2024. We don't have good #s of what PILOT salary costs were but if we use an average yearly salary of $250k, that cost is estimated at 550.5M. Adding another 40% would grow that to 770.7M. The difference would be 220.2M.

A $10 fare increase would more than cover the additional cost of the labor (this doesn't include additional 401k, increases due to additional vacation weeks, etc). And it ASSUMES that we'd carry at least the same # of passengers - according to BB, that wouldn't happen w/ a fare increase...

 

Yes, my math jives w/ yours for the most part (post above).

 

I found his push for M&A at the end interesting. It’s almost like he expects dominoes to fall with every small carrier getting scooped up. Or maybe he is just giving bond holders and shareholders a little more nudge to look at Frontier again? Should be interesting times in the industry.

 

I appreciated biffle not being afraid to say where the industry is headed.

im just curious when all this consolidation is going to begin.

 

There’s a video of Frankie at some conference, saying the same thing about consolidation probably from about five years ago. They’ve always been preaching consolidation, but still yet to see it come to fruition with the exception of Alaska’s acquisitions.

 

Well it's not from a lack of trying!!

 

Barry also mentioned trying to connect to an international network alliance within two years. I figured that was in our future until we cancelled the 321XLR option. Seems counter productive.

Maybe they will try and hookup with Wizz with Norse being an intermediary?

 

Or maybe spirit.

It’s behind a paywall but Franke is still going on about it.

https://aviationweek.com/air-transpo...olution-spirit