Geez, you need to relax meatballs.

 

I'd vote a big fat NO on any merger. But, Mr. Franke probably won't ask for my 2 cents in a billion dollar plus deal like that. Here's some interesting math though:

Mergered today the "new" airline would have 128 airframes. Spirit's orders, plus Frontiers orders scheduled by the end of the decade would bring the fleet to 328, accord to numbers found on APC (I can only confirm F9's orders.)

Both airlines are operating around 13 hrs a day, which equates to 10-ish crews per plane. 328 airplanes = 6,560 pilots plus a 30% reserve staffing = 8,528 pilots to staff a combined airline by 2021. The total list right now would be 2,000 pilots.

Even though a merger could potentially be awful for years, maybe in the long term, it's not the end of the world? Of course, that's all dependent on current orders turning into real deliveries, and FAPA's ability to negotiate F9 off the bottom of a merged list.

But it looks like my crystal ball is still deferred... Hate those darn MEL's. Just one man's opinion...

 

Meatballs
Thx for your well thought out response. Glad you decided it better to put down someone else's opinion instead of using your time for intellectual discussion. I didn't realize I, or anyone, had to check with you but in the future you can expect my PM for reassurance that it's ok to post.

 

Saab,
First of all thank you for stopping by F9 thread and sharing your wisdom with us. We did not realize we were underpaid. Also why do you think Frontier has a new paint job? Just so our pilots can be happy flying a pretty airplanes (sarcasm BTW, since you did not get the yellow banana one).

I don't think anyone at Frontier wants to be associated with NK. The only single positive thing that can come from that merge is a faster newer, better CBA. Even than that's not guaranteed. Negotiations start next March, hopefully you boys will have signed a contract so we can aim for something higher.

See you next time when you decide to troll back in

 

Something doesn't add up with your numbers. Southwest has just under 700 airframes and just under 8000 pilots, and they are a benchmark of staffing efficiency. These numbers are also sufficient to satisfy almost 17% of the domestic US travel market. Do you really see Spirit/Frontier's niche ultimately growing to that size? I don't. There is a finite limit to the number of passengers who will put up with the dubious travel experience that ULCC's produce. You have not fully-satisfied the niche yet, but will at some point soon, IMO.

 

Smoke, I don't know. I guess all those numbers are based off 13 hours a day and 10 crews per plane. Maybe with all those deliveries there wouldn't be a need to fly each airplane as much? Reduce utilization and the staffing numbers obviously go down. Time will tell, I suppose.

 

Sorry. Delayed on day 4 my apologies, lol

 

This conversation got a little unnecessarily heated...I work for F9, I have a lot of friends that work for Spirit. I think a merger would benefit both sides, both would gain aircraft and new destinations, and we could try to negotiate a CBA that pulled from both of our contracts strengths. Yes we do have some golden nuggets in our cba, even though we are underpaid! I think a merged spirit/frontier company would be in a better position to compete, but maybe I'm wrong. I suppose in time this will all play out and we'll see.

 

Keep in mind that virtually all the decisions made by management are designed to raise the stock price and increase the profit margin.

Frontier will ipo well before any merger. Indigo might as well be called ipo. After the ipo they can watch what the stock price does and then evaluate a merger. If the stock price does well, there's no rush to merge. If the stock price disapoints, I bet they start talking merger. Pubic talk of mergers always drives up stock prices.

I still say we aren't going public this fall. It's too soon. I know I'm in the minority on that, but I really don't think we go public nearly that soon.

I predict that we do merge with spirit, but it's at least 5 years off. When/if it does happen it sure could create a big airline. I think that the order book of Buses is so big that all non NEO airplanes will go away. Both airlines have very aggressive growth plans and I highly doubt that all that combined growth could happen. The US market simply can't support a 700 airplane SWA and a 350 airplane "Spirit of Frontier" in addition to the legacies.

Perhaps the combined airlines growth would sputter out at 200ish airframes?? I don't think the ULCC model will be able to grow as big as it has in Europe with Southwest here. I think the ULCCs in Europe have grown to 30% of the market. I don't think we'll have that here so long as Southwest continues to do well.

From the pilots perspective, I think a merger is a good thing. I think we are stronger together than apart. Hopefully both airlines can sign new, better contracts before any merger so that we can continue to aim higher. I sincerely wish spirit pilots the best in their contract negotiations. Raise the bar!

 

OOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!

- Hacksaw