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Old 04-07-2013, 09:00 PM   #491  
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Originally Posted by JamesNoBrakes View Post
No offense, but that's just as bad as the science you are trying to discredit. Being within 95% is the accepted gold standard, and you have no idea if it will stay there or not, but so far they are correct. There are much more advanced quantitative methods that can be used to quantify and explain data, which I assume is what the scientist do, but you're not really helping your cause.

What the data also shows is no warming at all in 15 years. Al Gore promised us Atlanta would be Oceanfront property by now.
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Old 04-08-2013, 03:27 AM   #492  
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What the data also shows is no warming at all in 15 years. Al Gore promised us Atlanta would be Oceanfront property by now.
That's right. Good old Al Gore. Now there is a man I can trust on world climate matters. Right up there in the sanity range with Kim Jong-Un.
What a pair to draw to.
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Old 04-11-2013, 02:26 PM   #493  
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JamesNoBrakes View Post
No offense, but that's just as bad as the science you are trying to discredit. Being within 95% is the accepted gold standard, and you have no idea if it will stay there or not, but so far they are correct. There are much more advanced quantitative methods that can be used to quantify and explain data, which I assume is what the scientist do, but you're not really helping your cause.
JamesNoBrakes,

I thought a bit more about this issue that you've raised.

Gallup, and other political pollsters, construct polls to a 95% confidence interval (CI) and they claim accuracy to +/- 3 or 4 or 5%.

On the image about which we've had this discussion the model projected temperature rise for 2015 is about .7C. If the model was as accurate as a Gallup poll (+/-5%) the 95% CI would range from about .66 to .74; instead the range is, roughly, about .4 to .8. That seems very large--no one would be impressed by a political poll if the range was, by percentage, that big.

This may comply with the gold standard for climate science but I don't think we should be making consequential economic decisions based on predictions as imprecise as these.

The width of the confidence interval gives us some idea about how uncertain we are about the unknown parameter. A very wide interval may indicate that more data should be collected before anything very definite can be said about the parameter.

Statistics Glossary - confidence intervals
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Old 05-04-2013, 05:14 PM   #494  
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Tornado spike in 2011 attributed to climate change. So what to make of this year?s tornado drought? | SciGuy | a Chron.com blog

Another guy who wishes he could figure out why it is so frickin cold this spring.
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Old 05-04-2013, 08:05 PM   #495  
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Hhahahaha some of these so-called 'experts' are reaching .
Don't know about anyone else but I tend to like a warm climate .
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Old 05-06-2013, 09:04 AM   #496  
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Old 05-06-2013, 09:05 AM   #497  
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Default U.S. Spring forecast

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Old 05-09-2013, 01:00 PM   #498  
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The Most Controversial Chart in History, Explained | Mother Jones
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Old 05-09-2013, 04:55 PM   #499  
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Did you read the article; It says nothing. Here is its conclusion:

"Meanwhile, the hockey stick's blade doesn't just stop rising of its own accord. It's just going to go up, and up, and up, as the image above, combining the Marcott hockey stick with projections of where temperatures are headed by 2100, plainly shows."

Can you show me on the hockey stick where it shows the temperature level from 1998 to 2013. Did you notice how Ma Jones didn't ask Mann why he refuses to release his raw data. Ma Jones has a couple of charts showing the temperature rising through the roof well APC has one that shows the temperature stable:


Mean temperature for the next couple thousand years (+/- .006C):


---------------------------------------------------------
Nowbrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr rrrrrrrrrrrrrrThen



No you can't see my raw data you pervert.
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Old 05-11-2013, 08:21 AM   #500  
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No you can't see my raw data you pervert.
Actually, the raw data is available online. It always has been at sites like NASA, NOAA and the Met Office among others and was made available by the Climate Research Unit when the UK was investigating the sham, Climategate.

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Anyone can now view for themselves the raw data that was at the centre of last year's "climategate" scandal...The CRU and its leading scientist, Phil Jones, were at the centre of the so-called "climategate" storm in 2009 when the unit was accused of withholding and manipulating data. It was later cleared of the charge.
OK, climate sceptics: here's the raw data you wanted - environment - 28 July 2011 - New Scientist
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