Not “sold” on anything, just been paying attention for the last 35 years. As someone who’s burned more than my fair share of taxpayer funded JP-8, I’ve seen how this goes from the front seat. Not interested in sending another generation on the same adventure. Nor am I interested in watching the military that I fund through my taxes be worn out and hollowed out on another misguided side quest in the desert. Russia and China are absolutely licking their chops at the prospect of bogging us down in another conflict in the Middle East, chipping away at our military capabilities by the day, while they move unimpeded in their own perceived spheres of influence. You know; chess not checkers & all that.

 

It would seem, at least as things stand now, that the kinetic phase of this is mostly over, at least in terms of large uses of our stockpile. I would argue we have been resupplying during all of these pauses, and we have been pushing manufacturers to up production. I am not saying you are wrong per se, just that there are varying levels of right. I also think we have shown that for at least the weapons China and Russia have given Iran, they are not an issue for us. I don't want another long-term war either, but I still feel more good has come of this than bad, at least for now.

Keep in mind, this has been something that has been discussed and debated on for 50 years, and finally, someone is doing something about it, besides sending pallets of cash. Our partners in the Middle East, not just Israel, seem very happy that we went in and took care of this problem, as Iran is just as much of a pain in the backside for them as it is for anyone else. The only thing that I don't think we will get in the short term, sadly, is a regime change away from the IRGC or the clerics. Perhaps that happens down the road, but I think Trump is looking for an exit path that will clear the dust (pun intended) and get us out.

 

If you’re saying occupation is a loser, I’m with you there. If you’re saying we can’t protect global trade and stable markets for free, ditto. Crews working a distant, large scale exercise can’t remain engaged indefinitely and you’re right, there is no shortage of other simmering conflicts to consider. Iran may well renege on any peace deal signed in principle. They also know If we don’t target their next bomb program, Israel will.

 

Just a couple thoughts on the bolded points:

1. I just don’t see ANY good so far. Regime still stands, nuclear can maybe kicked down the road (after it was already completely obliterated 6 months ago), and we’re on the precipice of a global energy crisis.

2. The gulf states have had tens of billions of dollars of energy infrastructure destroyed, and now they’re looking for a bailout from the US taxpayer which Bessent has said is likely.

3. Yes, he’s been looking for an exit strategy since a week from the start when it was clear it wasn’t an easy in and out like Venezuela. He doesn’t have one because the plan for the “Iranian people to rise up”, with zero organized opposition against an entrenched IRGC was half baked, and that’s being generous. The problem is he has NO exit strategy. The strait is still effectively closed because all it takes from Iran is a few thousand dollar drones a day lobbed from anywhere inside a mountainous area the size of New Jersey.

 

this is the kicker. Im still genuinely confused where these pro war (prob anti war during the election but hypocrisy aside) think this war is going. Iran CONTROLS the straight. Period. Full stop. Theyve been goaded into a eureka strategic windfall moment of realizing that they can apply pressure anytime they want with almost zero (relative) monetary cost.

so the only way is to go boots on the ground to establish a flot/feba deep enough to allow us to set up an iads?. Are you willing to do that? Are we really willing to shed blood here? There is no out anymore. We completely blundered, and saying that other folks are being cowards for not risking their young men and women for a war WE STARTED is asinine at best.


iran is actively executing combat operations in the straight as i type this, but “we are almost at a deal” or “the war is almost won”……every American should put on their clown shoes because we are definitely the the #1 circus in town

 

i think the problem is expecting Iran leaders to have logic and reason. Its like arguing with a crazy ex. There is no accountability and consequences.
if the whole contry goes to poop it's the fault of the infidels and "death to America ". If they die then it's off to the 72 virgins amd "praise be".
there is no winning.
I guess just keep the straight blocked, absorb the higher cost of oil, sell the US oil at a profit and keep dropping bombs on whoever sticks their heads up who is in charge and wait.

 

Fixed it for you.

 

No good so far, at least to the extent that we reap the benefit.

But given the scale of destruction of IR's tools for malign behavior and influence, there is bound to be some positive effects for regional stability after the dust settles. Whether that juice will be worth the squeeze is one for the historians.

We routinely spend more than on allies and partners. If that's what it takes to smooth things over, that's the cost of doing business.

I can't wait for the Tell-All books, going to be really interesting to see what exactly he thought would be the off ramp, and who sold him on it. But I do know who did *not* lead him on with unrealistic expectations: Dan Caine.


Short term bad news.

But long term that won't hold up... closing the strait with cheap asymmetric weapons relies on the old status quo for how commerce flows through. If this drags on, commerce will adapt (with government intervention if necessary).

 

Even oil costs will come down. Lots of fields that were marginally cost effective to develop or simply maintain at $65 a barrel are now being developed or maintained at $90.

But this isn’t over before it’s over. The last DECLARED war we fought in, the Commander in Chief decided he would be unwilling to accept the casualties we would have taken with boots on the ground but that a bunch of zealots couldn’t be allowed to stay in power, came up with an alternate solution.

That was a Democrat, Harry Truman.

 

It’s pretty clear Iran is executing combat operations and filming themselves to try and gain leverage, which they don’t have.

When they realize they can’t spook the markets dramatically filming IRG climbing a ladder in a ski mask they will come to the table.