While I agree with this to an extent I think you're also basing your 5 year upgrade time on the last 5 years too much. I see the upgrade time going back up to 2-3 years after the dust settles, given we get no new flying.

The reason the upgrade time was 8 years here, Republic, XJT, OO, etc was due to a multitude of factors:

9/11, age 65 rule, then the 2008 recession followed by no hiring at the majors.

Unless we see another one of the above factors, there will not be a stagnation in the left seat the next 3-5 years as we have seen the last 3-5 years.

With the hiring at the majors, LCCs and legacies to continue indefinitely, guys will continue to upgrade, get their turbine PIC and trickle out.

 

So if I already have 1000+ sic time the wait should be 3 or so? Trending now of course.


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I had a long response drafted that I lost that basically said the same thing as you. The only thing I would change is that there are no majors that require PIC time anymore. Hell, American only requires an ATP written to be done. That wasn't by accident they dropped that off their mins. We will see a lot more FOs going to majors/LCCs than we are now in the next 2 years. I don't think majors want high time old captains, and high time old captains don't want to go to majors. The trend seems to be that they want younger, moldable, insurable, and safe pilots who aren't set in their ways. Clearly PIC is not an insurance requirement for them anymore.

Get in, and GTFO. Don't chase upgrades. Keeps the whipsaw alive. Now when the majors add PIC time back in order to cause their feed to shuffle and chase upgrades again, I'll reconsider my stance. I don't see that happening with their attrition though.

 

"Dear God, This Christmas season I am sooo thankful that there are so many life coaches for me on the forumboards."

 

Uh the info is geared towards those looking to get into this industry and trying to make an informed decision on where to go and what factors to consider. Don't want to read it? Don't waste your time.

Riddle me this, what is the forum for? Complaining? Whining? How about debate and info sharing. What are your initials so I can be sure I never fly with you.

 

His initials are FB, obviously.

 

FO's getting hired at Legacies without any TPIC time is like the one story we've all heard but we've never seen. (A can't think of a better analogy or metaphor than this)

I can call up a handful of guys in my phone at this very moment who have all been hired at Legacies in the last year; they all have had TPIC, plus impeccable backgrounds. (almost half of them have been CKA, bachelor and masters degrees at places such as UCLA, Auburn, Purdue)

I know of several people hired at Jetblue, Spirit, etc with no TPIC.

I think this airlinepilotforum trend of undervaluing TPIC is just flat wrong.

 

I haven't followed the posts in a few days. Can I please have the 5 minutes back I took to catch myself up on this crap?

 

That's because it doesn't fit the agenda of the folks who have sat 7 years in the right seat and won't help themselves or their career by bailing out and instead chastise those who do.

 

How's the hiring forecast for mesa in 2015 looking?