You put it quite nicely Piper. 16 years ago a batch of starry eyed kids were promised a 5 year flow through to AA that included being issued a seniority number. Today, those folks are just now flowing.

The flow is absolutely not guaranteed. It's a carrot to get new hires and nothing more. I've predicted the 824 will flow out and then you'll likely see 'adjustments" to the flow agreement. I believe Envoy's Union will be a willing participant in this. Basically there will be no choice. The company is going to drastically alter the flow simply because there aren't enough new guys coming in behind the pilots leaving to allow it to continue to work in such large numbers. The company will tell the union to play ball if you want to have any say in the way anything in the future is structured.

Operational necessity will be the keyword that will allow the company to get away with stopping or altering the flow. The union will threaten a grievance and will likely file one. It will be tied up in negotiations and pending arbitration for 2 to 3 years before anything is ever agreed upon. In the meantime, Envoy pilots will be stuck for the duration in their seats. Just look at the LTFO grievance. Violation occurred in 2012 and 4 years later a tepid remedy is basically agreed upon but not yet implemented.

 

Nothing in life is guaranteed and anybody who tells you so is full of it. I'll take the odds on me getting to AA in the very near future vs selling myself short and going to a LCC. Like I said though, we all gotta have goals. My goal is to get to a legacy, preferably AA.

That being said I always find it comical that the ones who talk smack about the flow are the ones who don't have it. Isn't it ironic? Carry on with your Mesa thread

 

Should have specified. Yes, I meant upgrade.



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Lol I've met plenty of Envoy guys who talk smack on the flow. What are you talking about?

 

Me too. Nobody knows what the flow will be after the 824 are completed. The flow we see today is (IMO) not indicative of what the future flow will be. The only reason Envoy is short of pilots and still flowing 20 - 30 a month is because a judge/arbitrator ruled that way. Does anyone think Parker will park airplanes to honor a flow agreement? The only saving grace will be speeding up parking the 50 seaters to staff the new airplanes coming on line. What is happening at Envoy with the new airplanes is not growth but replacement. What has happened at Mesa is true growth. The airplanes that are coming on line at Mesa are in addition to, not replacement of the current aircraft.

 

Correct regarding the Envoy flow. The 824 is an arbitrated decision which will likely be honored without any hindrance as there are currently around 300 of these guys left. It could get tight with staffing near the end of these flows but as Envoy sheds more 50 seaters, that allows this 300 or so to flow per aribitrated decision. After that, it's contractual which can be stopped by the company for operational necessity.

With scant new hires at Envoy, things will turn ugly near the end of the 824. Expect the company to severely limit or all out stop the flow to staff their hulls. As we know, AA is addicted to cheap feed and violating yet another provision in the pilot contract will be a non issue for AAG.

 

This is what I've been told. Im planning on getting some E175 time under my belt while applying elsewhere.

 

A lot of these new guys at Envoy have swallowed this flow hook, line and sinker. I had lunch with a friend that got hired at then American Eagle in 1999. He's now at Souhwest. He was told then he would be at American in 2 years. AMR and now AAG have gotten a lot of mileage out of this flow stick and carrot. Some of these guys that are really relying on the flow get angry when you point out the obvious. I'm guessing they're young and don't have much experience. My advice to them. Don't pass up an opportunity waiting on the flow that may or may not happen. The pool of pilots for regionals has almost dried up if not dried up completely.

 

WOW, the ONLY mainline you would consider is United! You MUST be a flying god to be able to pick what you like.

For the rest of the MAG pilots UA (and DL and AA) DOES have issues with hiring MAG pilots.

Post the ALPA link where the regional pilots are going and I will take back my words. (I suspect you won't

 

It's irritating that you keep reviving old threads instead of posting in the current ones. Complain in the http://www.airlinepilotforums.com/re...sa-thread.html like a normal person.

You also seem to willfully ignore earlier posts, like...
So here's the most recent chart I can find. I'm sure there's a 2015 one out there, but I don't know where it is or how to find it.



In 2014 Mesa made up around ~4% of regional pilots. 3% of civilian new hires at United were from Mesa. So that's about right. Add in my earlier post, and you'll probably find MAG's hiring numbers to increase as time goes on.