The Useful PSA Thread
11-11-2014 | 12:19 PM
#572
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It'll probably be a while. Right now there's attrition at the majors, predicted to increase, the DOW is at 17000, and oil is dropping. But a lot can happen in 5 years.
The regionals are a stepping stone but for many, it will still be a 5-10 year stepping stone. For some it might have to turn into a career, and hopefully you have a good contract and aren't next on the whipsaw.
The regionals are a stepping stone but for many, it will still be a 5-10 year stepping stone. For some it might have to turn into a career, and hopefully you have a good contract and aren't next on the whipsaw.
11-12-2014 | 06:49 AM
#573
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Joined: Dec 2008
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From: CRJ
It'll probably be a while. Right now there's attrition at the majors, predicted to increase, the DOW is at 17000, and oil is dropping. But a lot can happen in 5 years.
The regionals are a stepping stone but for many, it will still be a 5-10 year stepping stone. For some it might have to turn into a career, and hopefully you have a good contract and aren't next on the whipsaw.
The regionals are a stepping stone but for many, it will still be a 5-10 year stepping stone. For some it might have to turn into a career, and hopefully you have a good contract and aren't next on the whipsaw.
PBS, larger aircraft and reduced frequency will mitigate the need for pilots at all airlines, but there will still be a need for pilots as older pilots retire. Those who get jobs between now and about 5 years from now will be set for life. Those on the other end will be on the backside of the power curve for the rest of their careers.
This chart shows forecast retirements, but that doesn't mean there will be a one-to-one replacement as airlines seek to reduce costs through reduction of pilot staffing while maintaining the same passenger load capacity.
11-12-2014 | 07:52 AM
#574
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Joined: Mar 2011
Posts: 726
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Agreed a lot can happen in five years. Yes, there are thousands of retirements at the majors.
PBS, larger aircraft and reduced frequency will mitigate the need for pilots at all airlines, but there will still be a need for pilots as older pilots retire. Those who get jobs between now and about 5 years from now will be set for life. Those on the other end will be on the backside of the power curve for the rest of their careers.
This chart shows forecast retirements, but that doesn't mean there will be a one-to-one replacement as airlines seek to reduce costs through reduction of pilot staffing while maintaining the same passenger load capacity.
PBS, larger aircraft and reduced frequency will mitigate the need for pilots at all airlines, but there will still be a need for pilots as older pilots retire. Those who get jobs between now and about 5 years from now will be set for life. Those on the other end will be on the backside of the power curve for the rest of their careers.
This chart shows forecast retirements, but that doesn't mean there will be a one-to-one replacement as airlines seek to reduce costs through reduction of pilot staffing while maintaining the same passenger load capacity.
11-12-2014 | 08:03 AM
#575
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Joined: Dec 2008
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From: CRJ
My best guess is that we'll eventually see a third pilot again in the cockpit, but it will be a robotic system. After a decade or so, the second human pilot will be redundant and eliminated. After that, maybe even the first human pilot will go too or simply replaced with a software engineer.
The cost and weight of such a system would be too much for small aircraft, but large international airliners would be perfect for it.
11-12-2014 | 08:32 AM
#576
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Joined: Feb 2013
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The technology is developing rapidly, but still not up to Part 121 standards. The cargo pilots are the most vulnerable since most people don't care if a planeload of boxes goes down in the Pacific.
My best guess is that we'll eventually see a third pilot again in the cockpit, but it will be a robotic system. After a decade or so, the second human pilot will be redundant and eliminated. After that, maybe even the first human pilot will go too or simply replaced with a software engineer.
The cost and weight of such a system would be too much for small aircraft, but large international airliners would be perfect for it.
My best guess is that we'll eventually see a third pilot again in the cockpit, but it will be a robotic system. After a decade or so, the second human pilot will be redundant and eliminated. After that, maybe even the first human pilot will go too or simply replaced with a software engineer.
The cost and weight of such a system would be too much for small aircraft, but large international airliners would be perfect for it.
11-12-2014 | 11:02 AM
#577
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Joined: Feb 2013
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A pilot hired today at PSA will not have an 8 month upgrade.
Those guys got in at exactly the right time and already had the 1000 SIC requirement covered. As time wears on all the guys getting bypassed due to the 1000 rule will have the required time.
There will still be quite a few guys that will enjoy a very fast upgrade, but they are already hired and flying the line, someone hired right now is not one of them.
Those guys got in at exactly the right time and already had the 1000 SIC requirement covered. As time wears on all the guys getting bypassed due to the 1000 rule will have the required time.
There will still be quite a few guys that will enjoy a very fast upgrade, but they are already hired and flying the line, someone hired right now is not one of them.
To meet these goals, it sounds like they will bring on 68 airplanes in 14 months which is 4-5 airplanes per month growth. I think someone mentioned that PSA had 800 pilots? if I'm not mistaken so that would be a need for roughly 500-600 or more pilots in 14 months.
11-12-2014 | 11:14 AM
#578
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Joined: Mar 2011
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According to someone who posted november interview info at aviationinterviews, their current airplane count as of this month is 58. They are preparing for 126 aircraft by end of 2015. Also, aviationinterviews says that they are planning to hire 1300-1400 pilots. If I'm not mistaken, 10 pilots per plane is the usual staffing.
To meet these goals, it sounds like they will bring on 68 airplanes in 14 months which is 4-5 airplanes per month growth. I think someone mentioned that PSA had 800 pilots? if I'm not mistaken so that would be a need for roughly 500-600 or more pilots in 14 months.
To meet these goals, it sounds like they will bring on 68 airplanes in 14 months which is 4-5 airplanes per month growth. I think someone mentioned that PSA had 800 pilots? if I'm not mistaken so that would be a need for roughly 500-600 or more pilots in 14 months.
11-12-2014 | 11:20 AM
#580
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Joined: Feb 2013
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