No, not every regional pilot does that.

 

Tell us, wise ole troll. What's considered a "regional jet?" I see management in your future.

 

Is there an honest recruiter I can talk to? Or maybe I can ask pilots here....I'm starting to think the immediate upgrades I'm told of at PSA is not capable? I'm also hearing Charlotte line holder out of training is false and not true. Also the more I research the more I find I won't flow as a new hire in three years. Is PSA a place to consider or is endeavour/Skywest/compass the new golden egg? Don't respond if you are a recruiter please.

 

There are no more "immediate upgrades" at PSA.

You definitely won't hold CLT right out of training and you most definitely won't hold a line in CLT very soon. As of June, the junior round 1 line holders in CLT are January 2015 hires. That fluctuates a bit based on how many lines are available to bid each month, but as of now that is what it is.

I'm not sure who told you that you would flow to AA in 3 years. I would honestly find it hard to believe even a recruiter would have told you that. To be honest, I wouldn't really consider one of the 3 AAG wholly owneds for a flow. You'll probably never flow to be honest. There will be furlough recalls and AA is shrinking the overall size of its fleet over the next few years. All of that will likely add up to less flows than what management and recruiters are projecting. The flows will create some movement off the top of the list over time, but I think there will be plenty of movement everywhere in the next couple years.

As for which airline is the "golden egg"? That's impossible to say. PSA was a golden egg a couple years ago when I got here. Now, not so much. This industry is a Ferris wheel. Those at the top will come down, and those at the bottom inevitably come up. It's a safe bet that if you aren't already on property at a regional when they get their "good news" and turn into that "golden egg" you speak of, then your window for benefitting from that good news is small if not already closed if you aren't already on property.

 

Upgrade will take several years for a new hire (even those with the 1000 sic). Plenty of FOs on property have the time and won't be by passing future classes. The recruiters are either completely out of touch with reality or straight up lying. Both are kind of scary to consider.

 

Very true. PSA has very little potential for a new hire and I wound consider endeavor or Skywest. Go where the money is and try to avoid commuting. I have been here over a year and won't be able to hold round 1 in CLT. Lines seems to fluctuate for some reason we have less lines even though we have more planes.

 

AA is practically scoped out. With a reduction in narrow body fleet, the total and large RJ count will have to shrink, not expand. It won't be a large number of RJ's, but the regionals are at their max size and will only shrink from here on out.

 

PSA is still a very competitive place to go, and has a good outlook for new hires. You just need to write down what's important to you, and compare the different airline offers. If you're looking for flexible schedules, decent quality of life, career opportunities, and a sure job at AA, PSA is the place to go. If you're looking for decent first year pay and possibility* of a job at Delta (*if they hire you via SSP), Endeavor is the place to go. If you want to chase pay or slightly better work rules, but don't mind risking having the airline fold or downsize and you don't mind starting all over again, go to a 'contract carrier'. Regional consolidation is a certainty, and the big question mark is where the 'contract carriers' will end up, if anywhere.

If I were a new pilot entering the industry these would be my top choices in order: PSA, Endeavor, Envoy, Piedmont, Horizon. <<(Notice they're all wholly-owned carriers). Places I would avoid would be: AirWisc, GoJet, TransStates, CommutAir. The other contract carriers are still risky, but may or may not find the right path for survival.

At PSA:
Time on reserve is approximately 2-12 months depending on domicile you bid/are assigned, based on your seniority. Time to upgrade is currently 2.5-3 years. (Most new pilots at a regional won't have their required 121 hours to upgrade for 1.5-2 years anyway). Flow to AA currently for a new hire is just under 8 years, many factors included.

I don't see time to flow beyond 5 years as relevant. I don't see regional airlines being around in the current form in 5 years. There are approx 18,000 regional pilots with approx 20,000 pilots needed at the majors within 5 years. Even with regional consolidation and reduction in flying throughout the industry, there still won't be enough pilots to staff regionals. 70+ seat flying will return to the majors and 50 seat jets will be a thing of the past. Before the shortage plucks out every regional pilot to the majors, you'll see the majors offer seniority numbers and mainline pay rates to keep pilots in place flying the larger RJs. Seniority numbers are key. Solely increases in pay will not solve this problem. Also, bonuses and incentives will eventually become so expensive for the regionals, that it'll make more sense just to pay a negotiated mainline pay rate, and give the pilot a seniority slot. These same incentives will cause some contract carriers to go bankrupt or be sold off.

Retirements haven't even really kicked in, and the regionals are already feeling the pinch. 2017 is when the big retirement numbers start happening. Without seniority numbers, the bleeding of pilots from the regionals will continue.

I truly like PSA. I've seen the lowest of lows here, but I can honestly say it's come a long way and things are much better. Two topics which need to be addressed are: accuracy of paychecks and contract compliance. The recent $20,000 bonus for current/active FOs was wonderful - a great incentive to keep them around a little longer, and will enable them to drop flying while maintaining or even gaining a little pay. They can even delay upgrade for a year or so and be paid about the same as if they had upgraded.

 

Realistically it will never be cheaper to fly RJs at mainline pay vs any B scale and we will never see seniority numbers, it shows how little people know about business. I can see average pay for RJs to be closer to first year pay at mainline eventually but they will never give us seniority numbers. It's cheaper for a company to reset your longevity by having you fly for a seperate company first.

 

This. Im skeptical that the flows will even realistically last any longer than it takes to remove the highest paid CAs at the wholly owneds.