Plus the app review, or several. Then job fairs, interview prep, and test and interview. What's the fun in missing all that? Plus all the money spent on those.

 

Aviate is a joke. It’s the EXACT same process as an off the street hire goes through if you are already at a regional. At least the CPP removed one part of the interview.

 

Exactly. And they still have the opportunity to apply outside of the flow. Best of both worlds.

All of this stems from the marketing ploy to convince young and eager CFIs that if they come to Envoy/Piedmont/PSA, they are essentially AA pilots. Reading some of the “we wear the same uniform” “our callouts and manuals are similar” “we call AA IT when our iPads don’t work”, it’s kind of sad that some people truly internalize this scheme designed to put butts in seats rather than see it for what it is.

The flow is a great opportunity for regional pilots. And the flows are just as capable as off the street hires when their time comes. But they aren’t AA pilots, they just work for a company with a contract to flow.

 

Pot meet kettle.
I think this will happen as well. Delta has enough pull that they dont really need it, however I think United will continue the march towards the same model. Aviate is already kind of doing that.
All valid points, my only counter to the military issue is that a regional pilot at a WO is already flying the customers of the mainline partner, where as the military pilots are working in a totally different field. Not a great answer, but there is some distinction between the two.
I have really started to come to these same conclusions the last few days, hence why I love these kinds of debates. I admit, the marketing team at AA really did a great job selling the flow and "you are AA" mantra. Literally everything screams a WO pilot is part of AA except the parts that really matter. It is a smoke and mirrors show. Thanks for you valuable input on this subject sanicom3205 over the las few days.

 

Not following you here. Once one company went to one list, the others (assuming you're referring to regionals) would follow or wouldn't get new pilots? Sure they would. The WO aren't big enough to support every regional pilot. And regionals can't dictate to mainline that they must be included in the seniority list. Plus in many cases it is faster to get to mainline outside of a flow. Why wait 6 - 10 years to flow when you can get there in 2-5?

Speaking of mainline, which is where nearly everyone wants to go (not regionals for life with some exceptions)... once one company went to one list, the only pilots they would be able to get would be from their WO. Why would anyone from outside the flow go to that particular airline?

Let's take AA for example. If they went to one list with legacy seniority number from day one of Envoy, or even as a cadet, no military pilot would go there. No outside regional pilot would go. No 91/135 pilot would go. No LCC pilot would go. Why? Because they would be at the bottom of the seniority list until every flow has passed them, for the next 10ish years!

Eric signs with Envoy, not AA, Jan 1st, 2020. Mark the Military pilot signs with AA, not Envoy, Jan 2nd, 2020. Using 10 years just as an example to flow, or 8 or whatever, every single flow ahead of Johnny will be ahead of Mark when they get to AA, despite Mark having been at AA the entire time. Nobody will go there outside of flow because they will be at the bottom of the list for a decade despite thousands of pilots coming in.

The rest of mainline without WO will get experienced pilots from everywhere - 91, all 121s, 135, military, and even steal some regional pilots from the WOs. If there is ever an issue at the WO, it puts the parent company in a very bad position because they won't be able to recruit from outside.

 

All new hours are getting AA numbers only and old hires are transitioning to AA numbers, JSing

 

Flow = carrot on a stick, period. It’s the House’s game and the House wins the most. Always.

Shotgun your apps everywhere, even to the Mainline you feed.

 

To be honest, AA doesn't need the military pilots or the outside hires to stay in business. It does need to keep the eagle carriers staffed and solvent to stay in business. They have grown to be a massive component of the operation, doing more departures a day than mainline.

AA wouldn't survive paying mainline rates to fly these routes and it wouldn't survive only flying trunk routes between major cities. It has already proven that it can't compete with the ultra low cost carriers head on.

 

A key part of the hub and spoke model in recent years has been the cheap regional feed, both to feed the hubs AND to saturate gates with small aircraft to fulfill the requirements of the ‘use it or lose it’ terms for keeping dedicated gates.

The hub and spoke model was already in trouble with aircraft like the A220, Embraer E195s, and A319NEOs bringing point to point service to secondary hubs. Why travel in a CRJ a couple hundred miles off a straight line course to go to a hub to sit for two hours, even if you have a fancy lounge to sit in, when you can simply go direct?

But by COVID driving down the passenger load (and business and international flights for years to come), even defending many of the ‘fortress’ hubs from the likes of Frontier, Allegiant, Spirit, even Breeze, to say nothing of Southwest, has become far more difficult. And while shrinking their fleet size and number of aircraft types will save the legacies money in the long run, in the short run it simply drives up costs - especially training costs - while reducing the need for pilots. And since ultimately the number of pilots needed is controlled by the gainfully employed aircraft, their pilot demand will remain low until they get more aircraft in the air. Until international is back most WB aircraft are going to remain parked and until business flying is back, even the remaining legacy narrow body with interiors designed to appeal to those missing business class passengers will be at an economic disadvantage to the L/ULCCs competing for the vacationers on CASA alone.

But to EVER get their pilot numbers up to where they once were the legacies are going to need to get their aircraft numbers up to where they once before the aircraft fleet retirements which is going to require they get more financing (ie., bond debt) and all of the Big Three currently have more debt than they’ve ever had and very low bond ratings, forcing the coupon in their bonds - that is, the debt service they will owe annually for the loan if the money - up into the 10-11% range.

So right now the post COVID reality favors SWA and the ULCCs and that is going to be affecting hiring for years. That’s why F9 and NK have already resumed hiring and none of the legacies have.

Flows have always been a device to fill the ranks of the regionals - not the major. But for the next several years flows will be even less valuable as the Big Three adjusts to the downsizing moves they have already made.

 

As someone waiting on a flow spot I see your post as very unfortunate and accurate.