What about PSA withholding flow to staff the operation?
PSA has in the past withheld flow for several months, in order to fulfill flying. Imagine what that would do to pilot morale, and loss of seniority.

 

One of the worries is that AA is doing something like that with its WO regionals, but most people don't seem to have caught on yet. If they just withhold for a few months, it will certainly cause a lot of gripes and discontent. They need to be more creative than that.

Instead, AA may have found another way around their problem of losing as many at the regionals. Right now, class sizes at AA are 45 per week, so 180 per month. Before Covid, they were 120 per month. A net gain of 60 per month. It is clear that AA training simply can not handle that many, so why would they increase hiring each month if it is not sustainable? Wouldn't that create a backlog in training and possibly skipped classes in the future? EXACTLY!

So, AA hires 180 per month for several months, creating a backlog in training, and then in July (a random month), they stop hiring for a month to catch up. Then they do the same in December. So, 10 months of hiring each year.

AA is still able to hire plenty of pilots, they give their training department a chance to catch up, and best of all...they have to only flow 10 classes worth instead of 12 classes. Since the AA WO only have to flow pilots in months that AA hires, they don't have to flow as many. For PSA, that would mean 20 less flows per year. AA wins and PSA/PDT/Envoy management win. Those that get stuck at PSA longer because of this lose.

One thing is clear, increased class sizes at AA are bad for flows. It means that there are more people in front of you in line every month. Worst case scenario, this is true and less flow each year.

 

Robin Williams had a bit where he called an idea particularly ineffective by saying "that's like putting gauze in front of an 18 wheeler and saying "Come on through!"

Hiring 10 instead of 12 months/year would save 20 captains at PSA. Few more at Envoy, few less at Piedmont. Better than nothing but nowhere near a match for the problem.

As for the WO's paused flow for operational necessity, that would really open the attrition floodgates. AA would instead lose a multiple of the number they saved to literally everyone else in the airline universe. ULCC's are hiring, big 6 are hiring, ACMI are hiring. Other regionals likely to be poaching experienced captain-capable pilots. The only way this ends well is if they make people WANT to stay at the WO's.

 

Personally, I don't "want" to stay anywhere unless I am building seniority and longevity at a legacy airline that will be the last that I ever work for. I want to work towards the top of the list, and that is it.

I can't get that at a regional.

 

Most people agree, which is why I doubt the WO’s succeed.

but not everyone. If they start paying captains an extra $10k/month, many will stay. Lot of variables and uncertainty but I don’t think it’s impossible

 

How is it possible that the majors don’t ensure the success of their WOs? Won’t they do whatever it takes to keep their owned feed afloat? I know everyone discounts the possibility of a staple but IF all this crazy hiring actually takes place, that’s probably the best cost-effective solution. Right?

 

I would define “succeed” as continued and stable independent operation in 2023.

It will be extraordinarily costly to make captains want to stay at a regional when the whole industry is hiring at Vne.

It will be extraordinarily costly and complicated to bring the regional fleet in house along with the pilots, fa’s, mechanics and ground crew.

It will be extraordinarily difficult to run an airline with greatly reduced regional lift.

My personal favorite wildcard scenario is massive domestic widebody deployment to support upgauging the entire operation.

It’s easy to shoot “these are the 16 reasons they would never” holes in every scenario. But IF the regionals have to contract, something weird has to happen in response.

 

Because when the Majors are faced with their own contraction due to staffing issues...they could care less about the minor leagues. And we won't reach peak retirements until 2025 and beyond! Lets say Major X loses 1,000 pilots in a year to mandatory retirement. To keep the status quo schedule, at a minimum they have to hire 1000 new pilots. Thus (roughly) 800 pilots are hired from the regionals (rest from Mil/135). They will decimate the regionals to maintain the status quo at the Major. They will "do whatever it takes" to keep their own selves afloat! Survival of the fittest, Darwinism, whatever you want to call it.

The real problem is FOs. The regionals can (and are) hiring FOs like crazy, but they legally can't become a CA until they reach 1000 hrs Pt 121. And you can't achieve that if your planes are parked due to CA attrition. Then the Majors will start poaching highly qualified FOs. Now the regional is getting robbed from the top and the bottom, and the hub and spoke system deteriorates. We just can't produce enough FOs fast enough unless Congress makes changes to the 1500 hr rule, the 1000 hr/2500TT CA rule, etc, I think the puppy mill flight universities will need to graduate kids in 3 yrs vice 4. But even that will be too late.

If the airline industry wants to maintain it's current level of capacity (assuming demand remains level) we will need a WWII style production effort...Reduce minimum required hours, reduce graduation time at the Univ's, raise ticket prices for pax, increase domestic wide body flying to make up for loss of regional capacity, yada yada yada.

Oh, and don't forget, the Military can turn off the spigot with Stop Loss any time they choose.

 

According to RST, more than 40% of all people who interview with Delta have job offers already at other major airlines.


The days of "go to the major airline that calls" is quickly coming to an end.

 

AA did this before the pandemic. And I agree, they ll do it again. Last time was more blatant if I remember correctly. Suddenly no hires one month then twice what they had been doing prior the next month. So same number of hires over two months but half the flows.