I try to look at the math this way, out of 300 pilots, 150 are f/o's. Of that, how many are chasing 1500 (and the other atp requirements?). I cannot attest to the Beech side, but what I see on the EMB side is that say 4 of 16 of us are chasing the 1500. Thats 25% of our group, or roughly 37 F/O's if the ratio is the same across the board. Obviously thats terrible math in a statistics world.

The "shrinking" referenced, the number of F/O's that upgrade, then the number of F/O's who think they see "the writing on the wall" and leave over the next several months. I imagine the airline will be done shrinking as much as it'd like by August. Then when the F/O's get furloughed that don't meet ATP requirements, 25% or more of them, that means by me using elementary math, 25% of our flights cancel or operate with two captains.

And the suggestion that the company fires the individuals and collects $7,500 only sounds to me like a scare. I see not meeting minimums a furlough event ("call us when you get an atp"), not a termination of employment event. If furloughed, the company cannot collect the money, your 15 months has hit the pause button until you get called back to work. So the company gains nothing by holding individuals under 1500 hours.

If I am one who gets let go and they were to demand $7,500 I wish them luck trying to find a way to squeeze water from a rock. I have no assets and have nothing to offer this company other than the debt I've accrued working on first year F/O wages.

All this just one guy thinking to himself aloud in an open forum.

Think of it as a big chess board....All of us are pawns, uppers are the Bishops, knights, Queen, and King. Who gets sacrificed? Pawn. Who gets brought out last? Queen (not Freddy Mercury's band). Who gets blamed for everything even though it wasn't our fault? Knights. I've got this figured out. Enough of this "math" stuff Ben, lets talk STRATEGY!!! Chess anyone?

You'll probably beat me at chess, but if you are inciting the pawns into an angry, torch carrying mob-

-I'm in!!! :D

Are they actually threatening pilots?

I think the pawns on my board are going to have rocket launchers!

No.

Again, there are only a few guys who probably won't make 1500 hours by August. Well under 10% of the FOs. There is no threat to them by the company. The company has not said what the plan is for the few that miss the 1500 come August. As mentioned, it will likely be a furlough and a "please come back when you have 1500"

For people interested in applying to Lakes, obviously we are hiring and running very quick upgrade times. The company is not shinking by much at all. I think we lost a whopping two cities. Ely, NV lost its EAS contract, so we are no longer serving Las Vegas. I think we are down to 46 cities instead of 48. No need for concern.

As far as pay at Lakes goes, with upgrades running at less than one year, you won't be on the FO pay for long. 1st year FO is $16, 2nd year CA is $29.

I'm only defending Lakes because no one else seems willing to :)

I'm flying with BenS tomorrow. I'll whoop him into shape.

Ouch. That CA pay is only a few bucks more than most 1st year FO slots at other regionals.

It's also a 19 seat turbo prop compared to what a 50 or larger seat jet.....

The company has been really quiet on what the plans are for low time FO's. I think they are counting on an exception for people with part 141 college training. It's going to be close for me. I have ~1200hrs right now and I'm flying about 70/month. My line this month only has 59/hrs on it and I've picked up some stuff to make it alittle better.