Ok the combined totals and comparison is done, I tried to make the data as easy on the eyes as possible.
Comparison and Combined Totals
Airline Pilot Demand Comparison | Audries Aircraft Analysis
Learned some interesting things, the 10-12% a year draw from the Regionals should last up through 2020, at which point a couple of things could happen. If Boeings Projections are correct we will see the draw from the regionals, (If they remain the same size over the next 8 years) go to 20%, which would be a 2.5 year upgrade for someone who gets hired at a regional in 2020. However if Boeing's predictions are still correct but the 2.3% domestic growth comes from larger aircraft, ie CRJ 700 vs 50, 737-800 vs MD80's we might see stagnant fleet growth.
Both lines are represented on the page
If this is the case we can expect 10-12% to be draw from the regionals for the next 18 years.
A couple of factors change this, Military Pilots, which are not included into the calculation, will represent a percentage of Pilots that will go to the Majors displacing some Regional Pilots who will then stay longer at the Regionals. What that percentage is I do not know.
In addition- If we see substantial regional shrinkage, in the next 8 years with the loss of the 50 seat market (due to High MX cost, Fuel Cost, no replacement) even with a 2-1 swap for a 70 seater, the Regionals may contract in size as pilots leave for the majors, increasing the amount of time an FO will stay an FO at the Regionals, beyond the projected 4-5 years. At the same time as the Regionals contract in size this percentage draw from them will proportionally go up. So it could be kind of a wash.
The good news is if the Regionals shrink to half of their current size in the next 8 years the draw will represent 20-24% of the new size per year at that time. This would equate to 2.5 year upgrades as the average. This coupled with the possible growth projected past 2020 at 2.3% per year, and new draw rates of 40% due to the shrunk regionals, we could at that time I think have a potential shortage. I do not believe 40% attrition rates at the regionals is sustainable. That shouldn't be the case though till the middle of the 2020's.