SkyWest ?’s
12-01-2021, 08:29 PM
#2991
Line Holder
Joined APC: Dec 2021
Posts: 58
Originally Posted by MtnFlying
I don't believe that, there will always be pilots available that meet minimums, just look how far out OO is filling classes right now (June currently on the CRJ).
What they won't have is fully staffed training departments, LCA, and training CA's to be able to QUALIFY those new hires in a timely fashion to offset the losses AND upgrade the current batch of eligible FO's to keep the line moving. That is going to be the choke point and downfall for a lot of airlines unless something is done to make the people in those three areas want to stay (i.e. start paying them better now). We are seeing the break between initial training completion and IOE growing right now and it will continue to get longer. How long before you have to restart training because they timed out before IOE could happen? For the most part, people will go where the pay is better if they are qualified - that is just the nature of the business. We've already seen one LCC start picking up FO's with no TPIC. More will follow in 2022....
If it gets bad enough, a couple of thing's will probably happen.
Door #1: The Major's will be forced to absorb what they can and the entry level 121 jobs for pilots will become one with mainline. No more (cough, cough) flow or mega bonuses to entice people to stay.
Door #2: There will be major restructuring and turmoil within the regional 121 world and 2-3 will be left standing when the dust settles. My SWAG - Republic and SkyWest split East and West as the feeders, with possibly MESA holding on to fill some gaps and Horizon for Alaska in the PNW, unless they get absorbed into mainline since they aren't that big to begin with.
Door #3: The wildcards are the LCC's, ACMI, and Cargo carriers (Purple and Brown). How they handle the situation and where they fit into the puzzle while looking for new pilots is something they will have to wrestle with as well.
The caboose is already off the tracks and shacking the tail pretty badly. How far will it get out of control before someone makes the first move to fix it. It's going to be a wild ride for sure the next 12-18 months.
The last question is, who is going to blink first to start the chain of events that will shake up the industry.
This is my opinion only, so take it for what it's worth.
What they won't have is fully staffed training departments, LCA, and training CA's to be able to QUALIFY those new hires in a timely fashion to offset the losses AND upgrade the current batch of eligible FO's to keep the line moving. That is going to be the choke point and downfall for a lot of airlines unless something is done to make the people in those three areas want to stay (i.e. start paying them better now). We are seeing the break between initial training completion and IOE growing right now and it will continue to get longer. How long before you have to restart training because they timed out before IOE could happen? For the most part, people will go where the pay is better if they are qualified - that is just the nature of the business. We've already seen one LCC start picking up FO's with no TPIC. More will follow in 2022....
If it gets bad enough, a couple of thing's will probably happen.
Door #1: The Major's will be forced to absorb what they can and the entry level 121 jobs for pilots will become one with mainline. No more (cough, cough) flow or mega bonuses to entice people to stay.
Door #2: There will be major restructuring and turmoil within the regional 121 world and 2-3 will be left standing when the dust settles. My SWAG - Republic and SkyWest split East and West as the feeders, with possibly MESA holding on to fill some gaps and Horizon for Alaska in the PNW, unless they get absorbed into mainline since they aren't that big to begin with.
Door #3: The wildcards are the LCC's, ACMI, and Cargo carriers (Purple and Brown). How they handle the situation and where they fit into the puzzle while looking for new pilots is something they will have to wrestle with as well.
The caboose is already off the tracks and shacking the tail pretty badly. How far will it get out of control before someone makes the first move to fix it. It's going to be a wild ride for sure the next 12-18 months.
The last question is, who is going to blink first to start the chain of events that will shake up the industry.
This is my opinion only, so take it for what it's worth.
12-02-2021, 06:24 AM
#2992
Prime Minister/Moderator
Joined APC: Jan 2006
Position: Engines Turn Or People Swim
Posts: 39,497
Originally Posted by ItsJustUsLeft
Does anyone else see the CTP course a complete 90% waste, a burden on mainly the regional liners, and a wait here for now pilots? Why do we put up with it? It is a huge speed bump in the road in a money making racket. It's like the rules just fall out the sky and we go, "OK, sure! What ever you say".
We could all tell you EXACTLY how many rotor and stator stages the engines had on each end of each spool, and could draw the fuel delivery system from memory. But how that engine would behave near or outside the envelope? Nada. Well we did talk about that a little, but only because somebody had just crashed a jet.
This was an era when regionals (rapidly) were transitioning from turboprops to jets, and it showed.
Yes, you'll get all of that in new-hire training but it will won't be the main event, you'll blow through some CBT's (or maybe your autoclicker will) because you're focused on memorizing profiles, lims, mem, and KV items.
It exists because the regionals can't be trusted to cover it adequately.
12-02-2021, 06:34 AM
#2993
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2019
Posts: 481
Originally Posted by ItsJustUsLeft
Does anyone else see the CTP course a complete 90% waste, a burden on mainly the regional liners, and a wait here for now pilots? Why do we put up with it? It is a huge speed bump in the road in a money making racket. It's like the rules just fall out the sky and we go, "OK, sure! What ever you say".
The CTP course was written in blood.
12-02-2021, 06:53 AM
#2994
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Nov 2017
Posts: 2,286
Originally Posted by ItsJustUsLeft
Does anyone else see the CTP course a complete 90% waste, a burden on mainly the regional liners, and a wait here for now pilots? Why do we put up with it? It is a huge speed bump in the road in a money making racket. It's like the rules just fall out the sky and we go, "OK, sure! What ever you say".
12-02-2021, 07:20 AM
#2995
Banned
Joined APC: May 2017
Posts: 2,012
Originally Posted by SoFloFlyer
CTP exists because people died. Don’t take it lightly, it may save your life one day.
2) ctp course effectively addresses gaps in pilot training. Mmmmm. IDK
12-02-2021, 07:27 AM
#2996
Prime Minister/Moderator
Joined APC: Jan 2006
Position: Engines Turn Or People Swim
Posts: 39,497
Originally Posted by ZeroTT
1) ctp course exists because people died. TRUE
2) ctp course effectively addresses gaps in pilot training. Mmmmm. IDK
2) ctp course effectively addresses gaps in pilot training. Mmmmm. IDK
12-02-2021, 07:33 AM
#2997
Line Holder
Joined APC: Dec 2021
Posts: 58
OK fair enough. That is just what it seems looking from the outside. Seems like maybe the majors had a training transition that worked from turbo prop to jet. However, I would rather study meaningful aerodynamics over how many rotor and stator stages on each end of the spool.
12-02-2021, 07:40 AM
#2998
Banned
Joined APC: May 2017
Posts: 2,012
Originally Posted by ItsJustUsLeft
Seems like maybe the majors had a training transition that worked from turbo prop to jet.
There were a lot of things about the way the system used to work that led to slow enough OJT the system worked organically.
When you spent ten years flying night freight in a twin been then a Merlin then you were flight engineer on a 727 for 3 years ... you didnt tend to make noob mistakes the first time you flew a jet.
12-02-2021, 07:48 AM
#3000
Pathological Flyer
Joined APC: Jul 2007
Posts: 694
Originally Posted by ItsJustUsLeft
So what is the order?
1. Application
2. Get e-mail for interview via web
3. Get hired?
3. ATP/CTP ? (with pay?)
4. INDOC? (with pay?)
I'm learning. ...and what does OO stand for? OJT ______ jet time???
1. Application
2. Get e-mail for interview via web
3. Get hired?
3. ATP/CTP ? (with pay?)
4. INDOC? (with pay?)
I'm learning. ...and what does OO stand for? OJT ______ jet time???
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