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Old 10-31-2015 | 12:54 PM
  #13931  
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Originally Posted by word302
Yup. I imagine we'll see it get down close to 3 years in the near future. Especially if we can continue to hire 80 to 100 per month.
I don't think it will drop below 4 for a while. 2011-2012 there were almost 600 hired and they are all waiting for upgrade.
Old 10-31-2015 | 01:01 PM
  #13932  
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I think it will drop below 3 years by next fall. To many airplanes coming on line next spring-summer 2017. That and attrition, will drop it fast. its always senior around the holidays as they don't run training those days everything just stops for a few days so its guaranteed off..
Old 10-31-2015 | 02:09 PM
  #13933  
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Originally Posted by disillusioned
10 spots for the Dec ER7 transition class posted. Most junior 11 years. Most senior 21.5 years.

It appears the "any day now" has officially started. Now that the E175 has been announced for Delta, I don't see this plane going junior. When I started I was happy that I got the CRJ but it hurt my seniority because everyone above me transitioned from the EMB. It will be interesting to see how many RJ FO's will transition to the E175 or just wait for upgrade on the RJ.
Is there any advantage for someone who transition from one type to the other? What is the seat lock for both airframes? If given a choice, which aircraft should a new-hire choose upon being hired?
Old 10-31-2015 | 02:55 PM
  #13934  
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Originally Posted by Is offline
I don't think it will drop below 4 for a while. 2011-2012 there were almost 600 hired and they are all waiting for upgrade.
It's at 4 now with minimal upgrades the last few months. 60-65% company seniority is typically what you need to upgrade here. I wouldn't be surprised to see 2500 number guys getting the upgrade within a few months. I have been here less than a year and a half and have almost 1000 guys below me.
Old 10-31-2015 | 03:13 PM
  #13935  
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You have to figure there's about 10 to 15% who won't take the first upgrade opportunity for one reason or another.
Old 10-31-2015 | 04:50 PM
  #13936  
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Originally Posted by word302
You have to figure there's about 10 to 15% who won't take the first upgrade opportunity for one reason or another.
I think the percentage is much higher then that.
Old 10-31-2015 | 04:57 PM
  #13937  
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Originally Posted by Jet87
I think the percentage is much higher then that.
Agreed. Excel says 24% of FOs senior to the most Jr. CA.

I think the short-term future of upgrades hinges on whether the new aircraft next summer and onward are growth or not. They will need to hire and upgrade in advance of that slug of airplanes. For all the negative nellies on here, the list has grown by over 500 pilots since the current hiring wave began, in advance of the first 40 E175 for United... and that is with 40+ Brasilias parked.
Old 10-31-2015 | 05:50 PM
  #13938  
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Originally Posted by M20EPilot
Agreed. Excel says 24% of FOs senior to the most Jr. CA.

I think the short-term future of upgrades hinges on whether the new aircraft next summer and onward are growth or not. They will need to hire and upgrade in advance of that slug of airplanes. For all the negative nellies on here, the list has grown by over 500 pilots since the current hiring wave began, in advance of the first 40 E175 for United... and that is with 40+ Brasilias parked.
Yeah, I should have clarified. I meant 10 to 15% of the pilot group, which would jive well with 24% of FOs. In the year and a half that I've been here, junior captain has averaged 60 to 65% overall. I'm sitting right at 75% in 16 months.
Old 10-31-2015 | 07:58 PM
  #13939  
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Originally Posted by word302
Yeah, I should have clarified. I meant 10 to 15% of the pilot group, which would jive well with 24% of FOs. In the year and a half that I've been here, junior captain has averaged 60 to 65% overall. I'm sitting right at 75% in 16 months.
I am below 2500 on the list and I move up 12 or so a month. The movement is on the bottom of the list not the top. There are many aircraft coming off of contract this year and very likely will not be renewed.

There are tons of 5-6 year guys that are just waiting till they can hold a line to upgrade.
Old 10-31-2015 | 08:18 PM
  #13940  
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Originally Posted by Is offline
I am below 2500 on the list and I move up 12 or so a month. The movement is on the bottom of the list not the top. There are many aircraft coming off of contract this year and very likely will not be renewed.

There are tons of 5-6 year guys that are just waiting till they can hold a line to upgrade.
2015 shows 37 -700's coming of contract. Its nov. havent heard about a single one leaving yet.. And there painting/adding more seats to them... 2016 only shows 19-700's coming of contract... Still think we will have net growth here. Hence all the crazy hiring...
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