I'm not gonna put much stock into the furlough number speculation.

First, we are in an unprecedented time where the government is mandating people to stay at home. Furthermore, many businesses deemed "non-essential" are not allowed by the government to keep operating. Really strange set of circumstances. The 85-95% drop in bookings is not really surprising.

Second, there is already plenty of anecdotal evidence that a number of medications appear to be effective against this virus, as well as a big push by the population to stop with the lockdowns. These calls will only get louder as the data that suggests far more people have been infected by or exposed to this virus than tested. This won't stop the screeching from those who are addicted to fear porn, and those who are politically and emotionally-driven especially in the election year, but at some point, the reality will have to set in. When that's done, the investigations, commissions and committees investigating just how did we bungle this whole thing up and literally destroyed our economy to protect a fraction of the population amounting to a fraction of a single percentage point will surely be entertaining to watch.

Third, Southwest is the opportunistic company with the best balance sheet in the industry. Furloughing 3000-5000 pilots literally handicaps the hell out of this company. Want to move into a market? Nope, sorry... no pilots. Bear in mind, this isn't US Air back in the day. Southwest isn't hanging by the thread because it's been grossly mismanaged on a big scale and cannot get any financing because it's already drowning in debt. Southwest also doesn't outsource any of its flying to a regional subcontractor, let alone almost half like some legacies do. In other words, to maintain a market share, a legacy can put an RJ and furlough at mainline with someone like Alaska being able to do this indefinitely since no caps on RJ flying. On the other hand, Southwest have to pull out of the market altogether. Does Gary want to do this to the tune of 3000-5000 pilots?

Fourth, despite grossly deviating from the historical manning norms, the ones who have been complaining about it the loudest have been the pilots - not the company. Note that despite that, we had the largest PS pie to split. Granted, not the percentage, but the overall pie, and this is despite the deliberate overmanning. Furlough 3000-5000 to get to what level and for what purpose?

In closing, I'm gonna stick to flying a jet and keep looking for things outside of this industry to supplement and and possibly replace my airline income and let the C-suite do the C-suite stuff.

 

Not what I said at all. I could GAF.
The guys who keep pushing to test are making a lot of insinuations, to include that our SWAPA legal counsel (who happens to be ethnic Taiwanese, not Chinese) is somehow behind this...because she is Asian I guess?
Had this not become some sort of conservative rallying cry, these guys wouldn't care. But it is...and so now they do.

 

Thats disappointing to hear

 

Great post. Thank you.

 

Good post and I sincerely hope that you're right. No way to know what they'll do. They don't have a cost problem, they have a revenue problem. Cutting to zero won't solve that.

However preservation of cash should be an imperative. That's where there is value in ETOs, temporarily lowered guarantee, etc. - at least from the company's perspective, they bleed a little slower which could theoretically leave us stronger going into a recovery (if there is one before we run out of $$)

What I wish we could see on the Facebook page is date of hire or, even better, relative position on the seniority list for each poster. Because if someone is trying to stick it to the junior pilots, it's helpful to know whether they are junior themselves, or insulated from furlough and just don't want their QOL to change.

I can't speak for anyone else, but when a fellow junior pilot says "no concessions", I have no issue with their opinion on the topic. But when a senior captain says "no concessions" it bugs me that they're unwilling to share in the sacrifice as junior pilots end up on the street.

It's a perception problem that I'm having, and I understand that it makes little sense. I think everybody's emotions are just under the surface right now and senior guys who aren't willing to do anything to prevent a furlough trigger me right now.

I'd also like to add my opinion to this "too big to fail" notion I've been seeing going around lately. We are not a business travelers airline. Even before Covid19 we didn't have the network strength, the frequency, or the international to serve business travelers. So when it comes time for the government to choose winners and losers, I think they're going to choose the company that has the most comprehensive network (including regional feed to small and midsize communities we don't serve) plus international.

Just devils advocate.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

Wow. Up to 70%??? So we have about 9895 pilots. So furloughing 70% would be 6962. That cut would take us all the way back to an April of 2004 hire. That would leave SWA with 2,969 pilots. OUCH. So that would leave us with a fleet of what, 250ish aircraft? With SWA having one of the best (if not the best) balance sheets among the airlines, then with these cuts I believe we would be seeing several of the major airlines fail. I find this scenario extremely unlikely.

I could see a 10%-20% furlough for up to a year simply because we have been overstaffed due to the MAX debacle. I believe as massive testing begins, the country starts to open up (this week), and people see that new cases, hospitalizations, deaths, etc... are dropping rapidly, people will begin flying again. Not to 2019 levels, but they will begin to trickle back.

I also believe that the airline that can make the public feel safest aboard their aircraft will see loads increase the quickest. Once shelter in place restrictions begin rapidly easing up in the country, SWA should massively advertise the deep cleaning the aircraft undergo each night, the wiping down done in between each flight, masks and gloves worn by flight crews, agents, etc... to show us going above and beyond to keep them safe aboard our aircraft. Then flood the market with $49 gottagetaway fares.

In my opinion, SWA can survive this without furloughs with continued ETO's and sweet early retirements options to the senior folks. After all, we don't have to be profitable right away, we just need revenue coming in the door and grow it each month. The big 3 operated at a loss for years. If Covid flares back up this fall, I believe the country will have the testing in place to quarantine infected people without shutting down the entire country again. If not, we are all screwed.

But I'm a glass half full kinda guy. I'm cutting unnecessary expenses and stashing away as much cash as possible just in case. If I do get furloughed, I'll have a nice cushion. If no furlough, I can finally pay cash for that jeep I been wanting.

 

The SWAPA fourm sucks. The union does not allow anything on the fourm, from saying the word China to any talk about the AQP and what one might want to study .

 

The JL redesign (new in 2018) of the wrangler is great. Best Jeep Ive ever owned.

 

triggered much?

think deeply about WHY they can’t post info about AQP on there...put your red MAGA thinking cap on, it can’t be too difficult to figure it out.

 

I had a 2016 on a 3.5 in. lift. Wife needed a new car last year so took one for the team and traded it in . I'm ready for my next one now!!