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11-13-2017 | 04:58 PM

#21

king10pin02

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Joined: Dec 2005

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From: A320 CA

Quote:

Originally Posted by SUX4U

I thought that seemed pretty optimistic. Where is the 17 year upgrade numbers coming from?

prob a combo of pilots per plane devided in half and mandatory retirements, though it wasnt my number

11-13-2017 | 05:02 PM

#22

SUX4U

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Joined: Oct 2009

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From: B756 FO

Quote:

Originally Posted by king10pin02

prob a combo of pilots per plane devided in half and mandatory retirements, though it wasnt my number

Gotcha! Hope for everyone's sake over there that those numbers will change in a more favorable way.

11-13-2017 | 06:48 PM

#23

Super EZ E

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Joined: Jul 2015

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Quote:

Originally Posted by king10pin02

anyone past seniority number 1400 or so will mathmatically never upgrade.. not counting for attrition or retirements and assuming no additional aircraft orders

Junior award is 1054, 1600 is a better guess if you ask me. Who knows!!!

11-13-2017 | 06:52 PM

#24

king10pin02

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Joined: Dec 2005

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From: A320 CA

Quote:

Originally Posted by SUX4U

Gotcha! Hope for everyone's sake over there that those numbers will change in a more favorable way.

no new orders=when the music stops at 161 planes, there are only so many capt spots. 161x17pilots per plane...divide in half you get 1368ish captains.

11-13-2017 | 06:59 PM

#25

Tranquility

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Joined: Sep 2014

Posts: 1,691

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From: 60’s Tech, Right

Quote:

Originally Posted by king10pin02

no new orders=when the music stops at 161 planes, there are only so many capt spots. 161x17pilots per plane...divide in half you get 1368ish captains.

With PBS it’s more like 14 per plane...

11-14-2017 | 02:10 AM

#26

Spear it

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Joined: May 2016

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If your friend has been here for 2 years already then yes, he will likely have a 3 year (total) upgrade. However, for someone hired now, that mathematically will not occur unless we get a new aircraft order or much much higher attrition (possible! Lol)

At the end of 2017, the most junior CA upgrade will be at 56% of the list.

Just my guess but... at the end of this aircraft order, 2021, we should have around 2600 pilots, with current staffing model. That puts junior captain at seniority 1500 ish. We have already hired through seniority 1800 ish.

11-14-2017 | 05:25 AM

#27

Planepirate

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Joined: May 2017

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Quote:

Originally Posted by Spear it

I don’t understand why this concept is so difficult for some to grasp. If you get hired now, you will not upgrade for a very long time unless there is a substantial aircraft order. That is a FACT.

Spirit will be a great career choice if:
1 we get a good contract soon
2 airplane order
3 Management is changed to a group that cares about employees
4 we don’t get bought, merged, parted out etc.

Or you can play the powerball, which probably has better odds