Pilottim79

Pretty much as far as you would like really.

24/48

I think it is clear that UAL prefers Bombardier and Embraer products for it's regional feed. I think it is also clear that TSA, RAH, and SKW have put in large orders for the C-series, the MRJ, etc in the hopes that scope would be relaxed beyond 76 seats, not gonna happen. It may be that these order positions could be used as a possible bargaining chip with the majors in an attempt to lure more outsourced flying to their respective companies. Who knows if that'll pan out.

My point is that just a few months ago TSA was a stale 50 seat regional with 1 guarantee for a prospective applicant, stagnation. Now all of the sudden you guys will double in size via 50 seat aircraft given to you by UAL that were once operated by XJT. With that, some folks on this thread, and others, are thinking you guys are awesome with all the upgrades, CQFO's, etc. when all you really have is a fleet of well-used 50 seaters that UAL does not plan on sinking any money in to. Also, our UPA does not allow for 50 seat aircraft replacement, a one-way check valve if you will, and those birds have a lot of cycles on them.

I participate on this forum for a number of reasons, one of which being that I was a regional pilot and understand where most of you guys are coming from. Additionally, my wife is a regional pilot so I like to stay involved with parts of the industry that affect my family.

Most importantly, it's staying engaged with the profession and trying to make it better. I participate on the United forum plenty but there is only so much negativity I can take whether it's the UPA, ISL, pick the issue of the day. I also mentor college students coming in to the profession and figured I should have a grasp on life as a regional pilot, and what is going on in the regional industry. I figure that engaging my fellow aviators, both regional and major, is a good way of doing that.

So if you guys and gals want to continue sitting around talking about how awesome your regional is, and living in a world of lollipops and balloons then by all means carry on about how awesome your cancellation pay is, or how awesome it is to pick time up on days off for 150%, etc. I just felt I would add my $.02 thinking you'd want a real discussion.

bjohnson09

24/48. Out of curiosity how do you think TSA will fare in the 50-seat market over the next 5 years?

Coneydog

Good post. Articulate and well said. It's the negativity that you alluded to in your post that's gets annoying on this thread. It's good to see when someone has insightful things to share without being a complete tool.

Coneydog

Also, 24/48, a few months ago (before all the Xjet planes) there was a lot of movement and prospect of upgrading relatively quick at this company. I wouldn't say it was stagnant. And the management has been completey changed from how it used to be. It's been a pleasant place to work. With that said, no one really knows what will happen to this company or this regional industry in the future. Everyone can take their best guess, and most will be wrong.

24/48

I can only speak for UAL and what our UPA permits. In short, our scope is lot more restrictive than folks think since they focus in on the fact that we allow outsourcing of up to 76 seats now, tunnel vision if you will.

With that said, there are a lot of restrictions that come with those larger jets, and our management team is starting to realize this. Looking at the 2015 fleet plan we will be parking 8 Q400's, 53 E145's, 9 E135's, 18 CRJ200's, 15 CRJ700's, and 9 E120's. We will also be taking delivery of 49 E175's for a net loss of 63 regional aircraft. This reduces the UAX fleet to 503 YE 2015. Mainline will park 2 744's, and 13 752's while taking delivery of 11 787-8/9's, and 25 737-700/800/900's for net gain of 21 aircraft.

YE 2015 the company will be at 240 70/76 seat aircraft which is 15 under the limit permitted in the UPA. To go above that 255 the company has to introduce a "New Small Narrow body" to mainline and they air actively pursuing that NEW fleet. They tried to get us to bite off on more 737's or Airbuses to satisfy the requirement to go from 255 to 325, we said no thanks.

Management wants to be able to maximize the language in UPA 1-C-1-g, I think you can download a copy of the UPA on APC, then there comes a total UAX fleet cap of 450, a ratio of 50 seat retirement vs. 76 seat delivery, and a cap on 70 seat aircraft. On top of that, as the company adds 76 seat aircraft they trigger more restrictive block hour percentages.

Essentially, we know they want the max number of 76 seat aircraft to be outsourced and we set that at 223 plus 102 70 seat aircraft giving them a total of 325 70/76 seat aircraft to outsource. To get there they will need to add to mainline with new aircraft of a different make than what is currently on property (think CS300 or E190/195). Additionally, they need to park more 50 seaters permanently than 76 seat deliveries.

All of the money UAL is spending on UAX is directly tied to 70/76 seat fleet. The 50 seater will have a place for the next 5 years but after that there's no telling. TSA is getting a batch of the "newest" 50 seaters that are pushing 10+ years old and have a significant number of cycles.

My guess is that 5 years from now we'll be putting the 50 seater to pasture at UAL. You'll have mainline flying everything above 76 seats with management scrambling to fill classes, much like regionals today. It'll be at that point where something will finally be done on a more permanent basis between regionals and majors, and possibly something more than a simple flow through.

Sorry for the long winded response, but I hope this answered your question.

24/48

Fair enough, however, I am who I am and I said most of that stuff that bothered you as if we were sitting across from each other having cold beer. I will continue discussing things as if that were the case, nothing personal.

24/48

I was going by a conversation I had with TSA folks back in November right after the announcement of new aircraft. According to them things had been pretty stagnant until recent months. I've also talked to many at UAL who came from TSA and that's how they portrayed it.

bjohnson09

Thank you for the response and the view from mainline. I know there are a pretty good amount of lifers at TSA (so Ive been told) and I know this will affect them greatly down the road. I was simply curious of what the impact of the 50-seat market will be on my career (call me selfish). This is why I look at the 5 year mark as well as the contracts that extend to 2020. As long as there are airplanes to fly for the near future, Ill be a happy man....

minimwage4

They will certify it under max scope weight. And fly it at 75 instead of 86 or whatever the seat config is for the MRJ. At least that's what I heard. I hope that flying goes to mainline.