View Poll Results: T/A Vote Yes or No
Yes
50
9.38%
No
483
90.62%
Voters: 533. You may not vote on this poll
Yes or No
07-04-2022, 06:11 PM
#332
Perennial Reserve
Joined APC: Jan 2018
Posts: 11,558
I got to go with Bobby Lee’s idea. The rules ought to be changed to give newbies a vote. They are usually going to have to live with the results longer than anyone else. Or make it anyone with 1000 hours of 121 time if you are worried that the 135 guys and ex-military guys won’t understand the problem.
And yeah, if you don’t make the attempt now to recoup some of the historic losses - like pensions - whenever would you do that?
And yeah, if you don’t make the attempt now to recoup some of the historic losses - like pensions - whenever would you do that?
07-04-2022, 06:21 PM
#333
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Mar 2015
Posts: 963
Originally Posted by Excargodog
I got to go with Bobby Lee’s idea. The rules ought to be changed to give newbies a vote. They are usually going to have to live with the results longer than anyone else. Or make it anyone with 1000 hours of 121 time if you are worried that the 135 guys and ex-military guys won’t understand the problem.
And yeah, if you don’t make the attempt now to recoup some of the historic losses - like pensions - whenever would you do that?
And yeah, if you don’t make the attempt now to recoup some of the historic losses - like pensions - whenever would you do that?
07-04-2022, 06:46 PM
#334
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2015
Position: B777 CA
Posts: 741
Originally Posted by baseball
passivists exist. They are out there.
So many problems/issues that factored in that resulted in this poo-poo sandwich.
1. MEC Chairman not in touch with membership. Has only flown 2500 hours in the totality of his career as a United pilot (CA and FO) combined
2. MEC Chairman far too isolated in the Instructor building over the course of his career makes him very apt to be see things from management's point of view and not from the line pilots POV.
3. MEC Representatives failed to design a properly dimensioned "sand box" in which they could direct and supervise the negotiating committee. The NC appears to be unsupervised and lacks both specific direction and as well as limitations as to which issues are on the table and how far they are empowered to negotiate away our hard fought contractual gains.
4. Lack of timely and active polling fails to capture new data brought in by the thousands of new hire pilots we have been hiring. Last formal data 2017.
5. MEC and NC were 'surprised" by AA's actions. Why? They aren't networking and keeping in contact with their colleagues and counterparts at other airline unions.
6. MEC has failed to launch any sort of contract support effort. Public, investor, and pilot group information campaigns have not taken place: Result: pilots don't understand their leverage and their net worth. Pilots willing to settle for substandard deal due to lack of industry information.
7. MEC brought in a contract that has too much "permissive language" that is favorable to the company and unfavorable to the pilot.
8. MEC brought in a contract that results in less take home pay to pilots when compared to current book due to number 7 above.
9. MEC willingly abrogates pilot shortage leverage that currently exists and assists company in reducing manpower requirements by allowing the company insane scheduling flexibility and reducing instructor jobs at TK.
10. MEC failed to remind the company that they must "put their money on the field", as in "MONEY BALL." The company chooses when, where, and how they invest their money. From Electrical aircraft to sonic boom - supersonic jets still in development, to purchasing flight schools. What about executive compensation? What about the overlapping and redundant jobs and positions in the airline? If we could get the New York Yankees to put soda in our vending machines wouldn't that be a great trick? That's exactly what management wants us to do. They want us to put the soda in our own vending machines, and then they want us to buy them at 300% mark up. I firmly believe that management should both invest in this pilot group and reward us. We've don so much. We've been there. How many concessionary contracts have you taken over your career? Do you really think you deserve another one? Do you really think management wants to invest in you? You are a human labor- economic widget. Your net worth to the company has a value. What is it? What's your career worth to you!!! For a 30 year career, my net worth is about 12 million dollars. What's your number? How does that work out every year, overlaid over an entire career? How about retirement? We don't get what we deserve, we get what we demand and negotiate. Management isn't just gonna give you the money. When approached after contract 97, Gordon Bethune was asked why he didn't give the pilots at Continental Airlines more money. His response: "you didn't ask for it." Larry Kellner said "30% of the value of the stock is in labor stability."
We're such good little minions. We come to work every day, do our jobs awesomely, and we rinse and repeat. Just a little robot-minion. Got our Core 4, buy into the corporate word of the day and give the company that "labor stability" they so richly deserve. No informational picketing, no other side shows or distractions. The company is careful not to directly provoke us, although their scheduling games and schemes come very close. The company knows they will get as much union as they deserve. So, they back off unless the issue is willful non compliance or a direct HR problem. They don't want to be perceived as taking a hostage, so they respect those boundaries.
Since we don't have a directly hostile and overtly hateful relationship with management that plays well with the public image they want to portray. A robbery is still a robbery. They can ask you nicely for your wallet, or they can stick a gun in your face. Either way, you should at least know when your being stolen from. The proposed TA is essentially "legalized thievery" from the pilots.
Please don't give in. It's not our job to solve their manpower problems, or the industry pilot shortage we see developing. Management teams across the country failed to develop the talent when they had a chance post 9-11. It's like a pro baseball team that doesn't manage their farm system. When Derek Jeter retires, who is his replacement? Many dropped out of aviation because of the horrible pay and work rules after 9-11. Again, not our fault or problem. Why did management keep ordering aircraft even though they knew they didn't have pilots to fly them? That seems irresponsible. Why should we finance their growth plan? When your neighbor wants to add on to his house, does he come over and ask you to help him fund it? No way.
Take a close look at Alaska, SWA, Delta, and AA. What do those pilot groups have in common?
Are we so different?
They all want immediate and tangible rewards for their sacrifices to keep their companies a float and for absorbing the pain that scheduling dishes out. They want to "take it back". Everything we gave up after 9-11 should be returned to us.
If you are a yes voter, not insulting you, but maybe you don't understand what we lost after 9-11. Maybe your 0-6 military retirement has you taken care of. Maybe you don't understand the contract, or collective bargaining, or the RLA.
Serious question: Will we ever get this much leverage again in which to take back our concessions? Or are you simply content to keep giving up and giving in every time management asks nicely.
Don't Give up the POOTY!
So many problems/issues that factored in that resulted in this poo-poo sandwich.
1. MEC Chairman not in touch with membership. Has only flown 2500 hours in the totality of his career as a United pilot (CA and FO) combined
2. MEC Chairman far too isolated in the Instructor building over the course of his career makes him very apt to be see things from management's point of view and not from the line pilots POV.
3. MEC Representatives failed to design a properly dimensioned "sand box" in which they could direct and supervise the negotiating committee. The NC appears to be unsupervised and lacks both specific direction and as well as limitations as to which issues are on the table and how far they are empowered to negotiate away our hard fought contractual gains.
4. Lack of timely and active polling fails to capture new data brought in by the thousands of new hire pilots we have been hiring. Last formal data 2017.
5. MEC and NC were 'surprised" by AA's actions. Why? They aren't networking and keeping in contact with their colleagues and counterparts at other airline unions.
6. MEC has failed to launch any sort of contract support effort. Public, investor, and pilot group information campaigns have not taken place: Result: pilots don't understand their leverage and their net worth. Pilots willing to settle for substandard deal due to lack of industry information.
7. MEC brought in a contract that has too much "permissive language" that is favorable to the company and unfavorable to the pilot.
8. MEC brought in a contract that results in less take home pay to pilots when compared to current book due to number 7 above.
9. MEC willingly abrogates pilot shortage leverage that currently exists and assists company in reducing manpower requirements by allowing the company insane scheduling flexibility and reducing instructor jobs at TK.
10. MEC failed to remind the company that they must "put their money on the field", as in "MONEY BALL." The company chooses when, where, and how they invest their money. From Electrical aircraft to sonic boom - supersonic jets still in development, to purchasing flight schools. What about executive compensation? What about the overlapping and redundant jobs and positions in the airline? If we could get the New York Yankees to put soda in our vending machines wouldn't that be a great trick? That's exactly what management wants us to do. They want us to put the soda in our own vending machines, and then they want us to buy them at 300% mark up. I firmly believe that management should both invest in this pilot group and reward us. We've don so much. We've been there. How many concessionary contracts have you taken over your career? Do you really think you deserve another one? Do you really think management wants to invest in you? You are a human labor- economic widget. Your net worth to the company has a value. What is it? What's your career worth to you!!! For a 30 year career, my net worth is about 12 million dollars. What's your number? How does that work out every year, overlaid over an entire career? How about retirement? We don't get what we deserve, we get what we demand and negotiate. Management isn't just gonna give you the money. When approached after contract 97, Gordon Bethune was asked why he didn't give the pilots at Continental Airlines more money. His response: "you didn't ask for it." Larry Kellner said "30% of the value of the stock is in labor stability."
We're such good little minions. We come to work every day, do our jobs awesomely, and we rinse and repeat. Just a little robot-minion. Got our Core 4, buy into the corporate word of the day and give the company that "labor stability" they so richly deserve. No informational picketing, no other side shows or distractions. The company is careful not to directly provoke us, although their scheduling games and schemes come very close. The company knows they will get as much union as they deserve. So, they back off unless the issue is willful non compliance or a direct HR problem. They don't want to be perceived as taking a hostage, so they respect those boundaries.
Since we don't have a directly hostile and overtly hateful relationship with management that plays well with the public image they want to portray. A robbery is still a robbery. They can ask you nicely for your wallet, or they can stick a gun in your face. Either way, you should at least know when your being stolen from. The proposed TA is essentially "legalized thievery" from the pilots.
Please don't give in. It's not our job to solve their manpower problems, or the industry pilot shortage we see developing. Management teams across the country failed to develop the talent when they had a chance post 9-11. It's like a pro baseball team that doesn't manage their farm system. When Derek Jeter retires, who is his replacement? Many dropped out of aviation because of the horrible pay and work rules after 9-11. Again, not our fault or problem. Why did management keep ordering aircraft even though they knew they didn't have pilots to fly them? That seems irresponsible. Why should we finance their growth plan? When your neighbor wants to add on to his house, does he come over and ask you to help him fund it? No way.
Take a close look at Alaska, SWA, Delta, and AA. What do those pilot groups have in common?
Are we so different?
They all want immediate and tangible rewards for their sacrifices to keep their companies a float and for absorbing the pain that scheduling dishes out. They want to "take it back". Everything we gave up after 9-11 should be returned to us.
If you are a yes voter, not insulting you, but maybe you don't understand what we lost after 9-11. Maybe your 0-6 military retirement has you taken care of. Maybe you don't understand the contract, or collective bargaining, or the RLA.
Serious question: Will we ever get this much leverage again in which to take back our concessions? Or are you simply content to keep giving up and giving in every time management asks nicely.
Don't Give up the POOTY!
07-04-2022, 07:16 PM
#335
Moderator
Joined APC: Sep 2017
Position: MEC Chairman, Snack Basket Committee
Posts: 3,198
Originally Posted by fadec
I don't want teamster proles, former non-union company men, and military yes-men voting. Let them soak for a year in our current contract. If they have previous experience under an ALPA contract then it's a maybe at best.
I think half wingers "in general" are experienced professionals who have the humility to listen to the more experienced pilot group, learn the history of contracts at UAL and other carriers, and the intelligence to weigh the issues for themselves.
I keep hearing how some people dont take the time to vote, don't take the time to understand the issues and the downline consequences, ladder pullers, section 3 chasers, etc etc.. so how's the 1-10 yr+ soak under the current book changing how they vote?
I think the con statements put out by the 4 no's show how self evident the shortcomings are. Imo it doesn't take a yr under current book to "get why it's a bad TA." But besides that, my argument is more on principle- not that we would vote how you would want..
07-04-2022, 07:20 PM
#336
Moderator
Joined APC: Sep 2017
Position: MEC Chairman, Snack Basket Committee
Posts: 3,198
Originally Posted by Boeing Aviator
THIS!! Outstanding. 100% Spot On !!
07-04-2022, 08:35 PM
#337
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Nov 2010
Position: 787 CA
Posts: 425
Originally Posted by Sunvox
What I meant by your "thesis" is to say it is your opinion that because UALPA did not apply for mediation they are years away from applying pressure on UAL and therefore years away from a contract. I disagree for the reasons I explained above, but I tell you what. If UAL doesn't have a signed TA within 18 months of the current TA being voted down I will donate a $100 to the charity of your choice, or conversely you can just quote this post and send me an "I told you so" if I'm wrong.
07-04-2022, 08:56 PM
#338
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Feb 2018
Posts: 1,256
Originally Posted by Sunvox
Clearly you are the master of internet diatribes, and you obviously have read some airline history and labor law books, but I'm afraid, in my opinion, you 100% did not address my point. Brings to mind the term: Dunning Kruger Effect. Air Force guys always think they're the smart one
What I meant by your "thesis" is to say it is your opinion that because UALPA did not apply for mediation they are years away from applying pressure on UAL and therefore years away from a contract. I disagree for the reasons I explained above, but I tell you what. If UAL doesn't have a signed TA within 18 months of the current TA being voted down I will donate a $100 to the charity of your choice, or conversely you can just quote this post and send me an "I told you so" if I'm wrong.
What I meant by your "thesis" is to say it is your opinion that because UALPA did not apply for mediation they are years away from applying pressure on UAL and therefore years away from a contract. I disagree for the reasons I explained above, but I tell you what. If UAL doesn't have a signed TA within 18 months of the current TA being voted down I will donate a $100 to the charity of your choice, or conversely you can just quote this post and send me an "I told you so" if I'm wrong.
The leverage available via the RLA is not the only source of leverage. I would never claim that. But I would say, in general, it is the strongest leverage available to labor. There may be particular issues at particular times that offer more leverage for a certain period of time to labor than being able to wield the credible threat of a strike. But, in general, over time, it is the most powerful weapon in labor's arsenal. That's not just my opinion. There are many folks out there a lot smarter than myself who hold that belief.
Can you get a TA without leveraging the RLA? Yes, of course. You already did. Is it a quality TA? Some United guys seem to think so, but not many.
Will you be able to get another TA within 18 months without leveraging the RLA? Of course you can.
Will it get ratified? It seems there's a decent chance of that if the pot is sweetened a little bit, especially in light of the fact that some of your guys are willing to vote yes even for your current TA. Hopefully, in the next 18 months, in addition to the leverage you already have, other pilot groups like Delta will ratify significantly better contracts that United can pattern bargain off of to generate a better TA.
My "thesis" is not that you won't be able to get a ratifiable TA within the next 18 months. But I wouldn't define a ratified contract within X number of months as the mark of the best possible deal that is achievable.
Whatever deal you get, inside or outside of 18 months, will almost certainly be sweeter if RLA leverage is applied and would have been sweeter still if your current MEC/NC had filed for mediation years ago.
It doesn't seem like the pilot shortage was very threatening in Kirby's mind given the TA that resulted. Kirby doesn't seem to have believed that United pilots needed a substantially better contract in order to recruit enough pilots to fuel his "aggressive growth plan." On that issue, he apparently thought this TA is good enough.
It does seem like he believes the training center is a critical issue, so he targeted that pain point very specifically in the TA and your MEC/NC went along with it. Maybe the training center issue can be better leveraged in the future.
Whatever TA that is produced going forward is more likely to be the best possible TA if your MEC and NC appear in Kirby's eyes to be willing, if necessary to achieve their goals, to go as far as is required to win back everything that has been lost since the Chapter 11 concessions and then some.
Maybe it will be possible to create that kind of fear in Kirby by filing for mediation as soon as is reasonable and then perhaps staging massive and frequent pickets and conducting a strike authorization vote that turns out like Alaska's did in May. Kirby will then have all of that to deal with in addition to the leverage that you currently possess. Maybe Kirby will think to himself as a result, "If I don't give these guys what they want sooner rather than later, I'm going to end up having to give them what they want in the end anyway because they're obviously serious about taking this to the mat. So. I might as well give it to them now so we avoid all the unpleasantness to come later if I don't." That's possible.
But even if that occurs, I'd say whatever TA that results will likely have been better if mediation had been filed for sooner by the current MEC/NC rather than later by the next MEC/NC because the credible threat of passengers booking away in the face of a looming strike would have been that much more real to Kirby.
Going forward, an aggressive and smart MEC/NC can make up for a lot of where the current MEC and NC have fallen short. But it will be difficult for them to completely unf!!k what the current MEC/NC did (or rather, didn't do).
So, like I said before, bottom line, TLDR, my "thesis" is simply that it's usually better to file for mediation earlier rather than later because, in general, the realistic threat of legal self help is the most powerful leverage labor has access to. Under the RLA, a union can't just file for mediation and then immediately have access to the full weight of the leverage the RLA affords. That kind of leverage develops only with time. To be clear, a union doesn't have to wait years after filing for mediation to have some leverage under the RLA. But the full force of RLA leverage requires years after entering mediation to have access to it.
Last edited by Lewbronski; 07-04-2022 at 09:21 PM.
07-05-2022, 03:58 AM
#339
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Sep 2010
Position: EWR 777 Captain
Posts: 1,715
Originally Posted by 13n144e
Yeah, you’re pretty fond of these internet wagers and then weaseling out when your predictions don’t pan out. I hope your right though and would gladly cover your wager if it comes to pass. However you’re the one not addressing the point; we didn’t file for mediation. Whether we have any leverage from the “pilot shortage” or staffing issues in the training department doesn’t negate this fact. We could have both: staffing leverage as well as the additional pressure of the clock running out on mediation. I’m guessing it was because we were too busy negotiating concessionary pandemic LOA’s, but imagine how much better we would be situated if, in addition to whatever leverage we currently may or may not have, we had been released from mediation as well.
Originally Posted by Mitch Rapp
From all the way back to the SLI, your predictions have generally been right on and I value your input. I sure hope you’re right on this one!
Originally Posted by Sunvox View Post
Yes, the PS guesstimate is 7.6% of your full year wages. Last year was 5.6% Management is "managing" expectations. The steps I outlined are exactly how PS is calculated. The unknowns are "other" and the final Q4 profit and revenue, but my 7.6% estimate is assuming a low number for "other" and profit in line with what the company told Wall St. to expect in the last earnings call. The gentleman who came up with the 8.3% number used a higher estimate for "other" and a higher estimate for Q4 profit, and he had a more accurate number for payroll.
My original guesstimate earlier in the year based on forecast expectations for 2019 was 5-7%, but I said every $100 million in savings adds about 0.3%. UAL exceeded the high end of their profit estimates, saved $200 million on fuel compared to last year, and kept cost increase well below revenue growth which net net is adding to PS for the year.
There really is little need to "guess" once you have the actual steps involved and 3 quarters worth of earnings and revenue.
Yes, the PS guesstimate is 7.6% of your full year wages. Last year was 5.6% Management is "managing" expectations. The steps I outlined are exactly how PS is calculated. The unknowns are "other" and the final Q4 profit and revenue, but my 7.6% estimate is assuming a low number for "other" and profit in line with what the company told Wall St. to expect in the last earnings call. The gentleman who came up with the 8.3% number used a higher estimate for "other" and a higher estimate for Q4 profit, and he had a more accurate number for payroll.
My original guesstimate earlier in the year based on forecast expectations for 2019 was 5-7%, but I said every $100 million in savings adds about 0.3%. UAL exceeded the high end of their profit estimates, saved $200 million on fuel compared to last year, and kept cost increase well below revenue growth which net net is adding to PS for the year.
There really is little need to "guess" once you have the actual steps involved and 3 quarters worth of earnings and revenue.
Last edited by Sunvox; 07-05-2022 at 04:19 AM.
