Paralysis by analysis

 

Let's agree to disagree, I find "your picture" VERY useful. Agree, just like you said, many others might not be, but thank you for your answer and advice.
And yes, those months in DENVER will be enough to figure everything out, maybe I'm looking for answers now that will be answered later anyway...
You are also right about "the minority" thing... I won't be alone when I think about the military, 135 or 91 people.
Thanks again, and you see? between you and few others colleagues here...at the end, a message board can be very good sometimes. The information that I'm gathering provides me with a picture accurate enough so I won't walk in to that first day totally blind or unaware of how things will work.
Kind regards,

Tangalanga

 

Question for anyone that can get out their crystal ball:
How quickly can I get to ORD on the 756?
Background:
Have a CJO with a pending class date.
I'm old, so will probably get top 5 pick of base / equip
Looking at drop history, I can probably get 756 EWR, but want ORD.
Leaning on picking anything ORD as I live in IL and don't want to commute for too long.
I really want to fly the 756 though.
I commute to NYC now and it has gotten old.
Maybe one more question..... How long to hold a line on 756 EWR if I am there a while?
Thanks,

 

What was the drop today?

 

2nd hand from the new hire facebook page: 43x 737 IAH only, 6x 320's EWR and SFO, 2x 756 not sure what bases, 2x 777 not sure what bases

 

If you are willing to commute a little longer, I would take the 756 EWR and bid to ORD in the following vacancy. I started on the EWR 737 and changed bases via vacancy bid the next month on the 737. When I bid to the 756, it took 7 months from award date until I started training. The unpredictability of waiting for training, IOE, consolidation, etc. isn't worth it if you can avoid it IMHO. To answer your other question, based on the vacancy that closed today you can hold ORD 756 almost immediately. Once you are on property, you will be able to bid in the next vacancy. Of course, YMMV and the training department is catching up but I was a summer '21 hire and that was my experience.

 

Best anyone here can do is guess based on vacancy awards. The one open now has about 80 EWR 756 FO seats open. So expect those seats to become part of the hew hire drop pool. Only 7-8 seats in ORD (filled) so don't expect that in any drops. Our heavier vacancies happen late fall/winter, so that's probably when you might be able to bid into ORD with activation in the winter/early spring.
- Line holder in EWR is a dude around 13780ish.
- ORD 756 Line holder is about 13330ish.
- We are at 15900 with the latest new hire class.
- Rule of thumb is you have to bubble up to about 78% in base to get in the ballpark for a line.

Another route is go 737 ORD 1st, as there are about 55 unfilled seats (vacancy snapshot), and then upgrade to 756 when a vacancy opens late this year. There is no seat lock going up from 737 to 756, but of course there is a training footprint to consider. Line holder in ORD 737 will happen way faster especially with all the growth with the 73 fleet.

Of course this predictive info doesn't take your pending class date into account (how long til class) and what the BES mix with each class (baro pressure, what's on TV, stock market, and gas prices that might influence company whims).

One other consideration, commuting to reserve sucks, and global reserve (WBs) sucks more.

 

737 was IAH and EWR. 777 was SFO. 756 was DCA, IAH, EWR, LAX, SFO.

 

This was last week.

Edit: Oops, jk they're very similar.

Edit Edit: ok not really, somebody put the 2/14 drop in the 2/7 thread

 

No, 2/7 had 30x 737 IAH, 6x 756 EWR, and 14x 777 SFO.