You guys crack me up. The senior management is looking at a fight for their corporate lives and keeping us out of Ch.11. They are going to do what is most economical and there will be no half measures. Any idea about buying another airline must be the product of some bad mushrooms. Boeing and Airbus is in the same boat as are many banks. They all will be cruising for new business with very generous terms. Old airplanes are headed for the bone yard, or cockroach corner freight operations.

 

How on earth does this statement have anything to do with my comment asking about a general displacement protocol?

 

Thank you! I never paid much attention to previous displacement bids. Wish I did now.
Just to clarify, they displace 300 756 FO’s and displaces 80 777 FO’s at the same time. If all 300 756 FO’s are senior to the new plug on the 777 spot can they all be awarded that BES? This would then result in the 777 being even more overstaffed needing another displacement right?

 

Yes, and repeat. The exception being a category that's totally closing. You can't displace into that.

It costs money to furlough pilots so that's why we hear things like the "18 month" number.

 

Much appreciated! Thank you for the info.

 

Jim,

Yes, that is correct; any pilot being displaced can bid any BES if they are senior to the junior pilot in that displacement. Will this cause unwanted imbalances? Very likely Yes.

What next? They will then issue another displacement bid right away to deal with that imbalance before they send anyone to WB training. Repeat that process as many times as required to have pilots where they want them on paper. They will start training the needed NB F/O's that are not slated for furloughs as soon as they can...Kind of like hammering a nail with multiple blows instead of one.

I am not sure UAL will furlough any pilots this year, but the chances of it happening at this point seem likely.

SP

 

Keep in mind that the junior man number changes on the report once a displacement letter goes out for that category. So the junior man numbers you see today for other fleets wouldn’t be valid for another category if that category has a displacement at the same time.
A new junior man report is generated when a displacement is announced.

 

Where it gets very difficult to predict with displacements is that the junior pilot remaining in a BES that has displacements on the posting is not necessarily the junior pilot at the end. If 1 senior pilot volunteers to be displaced the senior most pilot that was displaced now becomes the junior pilot in the base. This dynamic number is what determines where you can bump to. So, if it looks like you can't hold a BES because they have bumped all the pilots currently in that BES junior to you doesn't mean you should not submit that BES as your preference. When they run the displacement it is what you can hold when they get to your seniority number, so if pilots senior to you have volunteered, you may not be displaced at all or may be able to hold a different BES that it didn't appear you would.

Here is my simplified example:

BES A
sn 10000
sn 10010
sn 10020
sn 10030 displaced
sn 10040 displaced

Let's say you are in BES B and your seniority number is 10025 and you are being displaced. It looks like you can't bump to BES A. However, if the pilot that is sn 10020 decided to volunteer for the displacement, then the pilot sn 10030 becomes the junior pilot in BES A, so you actually can.

As you can imagine when you have a large multi base displacement, the bottom numbers can change a lot as some people would rather move to a new plane than remain really junior in their current position.

 

Check your email for an SSC Update. NPDM 20-01 for some upcoming bumps primarily on the 756 with “full Category closures” and “partial Category reductions”. Let the games begin. 😔

 

Owned aircraft don't cost much to park for long periods. But unless one can get out of long term leases, parking leased aircraft makes almost no sense (unless loads stay down 90%). As of our last annual report we were leasing:

2 of 16 764s
13 of 38 763s
12 of 21 753s
5 of 53 752s

So, 32 756 aircraft that we could very well keep flying right up until their leases expire. Long enough to bring back portions of the remaining fleet as the economy improves.

Below is an excerpt I made from a long post I made in Aug 2017, I still tend to think it holds true. But the NPDM may clearly point elsewhere. Fingers crossed. Fleet Discussion and News

"The five more 798-9s we have coming in the next six months plus the 14 787-10s we have arriving starting next year will allow our oldest 756s and 777s to continue being moved from international to domestic p.s. type service where they can receive more care and feeding from maintenance... or be parted out if the economy tanks.

I think this general trend of removing our oldest larger jets from international services will continue until a MoM aircraft enters service. I think the MoM will be used primarily for transcons and TATL services, allowing the hodgepodge of geriatric jets being used for p.s. service to be retired en masse"