This makes no sense. Retirements alone is like 600-700 in 2026. Not too mention the deliveries of NEOs, MAXs, and 787s. I’m thinking 1700-2000 is very realistic.

 

The reality is it's a moving target. The last I heard from an LCP is that the target is 1500 +/- 1000. I'd shade on the high end of that, personally, but it's hard to say.

 

Sounds like you are missing TPIC and a degree. When the pool of applicants has enough of those to fill all the positions and then some (and you don’t), it’s hard to get a call.

 

Do you have a four year degree?
Do you have less than three total training failures, including less than two 121/135 failures?
How many job fairs have you attended?

 

Because there’s quite a few built already is my understanding

 

Pretty much heard this across multiple different sources. I don't know if they're being cautious or what. What I do know is they obviously do not want people waiting 120+ days for a class, so they aren't interviewing many street hires at this time. Non-zero, but it's not a big number. That leads me to believe that there probably aren't currently planned classes for June and July, and possibly May. If we do start seeing Hogans go out more consistently then that would be a sign of late spring/summer classes.

Hopefully you guys end up closer to the high side of the ~1600 + 1000! I was told that I was in a good spot post-CP M&G but that it "might be a while," so everything seems to point to some level of uncertainty in hiring totals this year, and a current expectation of at least a few months of smaller or no classes. Still hoping for the best!

 

then the plan changed in the last month if that’s true because I heard 2600 from up high 🤷🏻‍♂️

 

from what I’m hearing from those in training currently, 2500 is back to being the plan. Seems to change week to week, so I’d put zero stock in it.

 

Exactly. You’d have a better chance of accurately predicting the weather a few months out than accurately predicting future hiring numbers. It’s going to be somewhere between merely noteworthy and more than we can train.

 

128 deliveries this year with 500+ retirements. Certainly 2,500 is a reasonable number for hiring for the year.