You do love that Kool-Aid don't you?

 

That scenario although not completely without plausibility is HIGHLY unlikely. For one, the company doesn't do drawdowns quickly, maybe in a 'right sizing' scenario it's plausible and those furloughed would most likely agree it happens that quickly, but the reality is the company is a whole now looking to reduce deficits and keep bleedout to the minimum. They will mitigate a parking of a fleet slowly and match it to the attrition levels based on demographics and retirements as well as vacancy movement. You will possibly see some displacements but they will not open the floodgates. To do so would be a training center, cost detrimental nightmare. The vacancy's and any displacements will be a slow trickle and not the damn bursting event you propose. See the last vacancy bid, that will be the scenario for years to come. It took well over 5-7 years to completely phase out the 737 300 and 500's and this management team doesn't do anything cost prohibitive to appease emotion. This is the company running the show now, not the union(s). There are no absolutes and the word 'expensive' with regard to pilot staffing is not in this managements vocabulary. Stagnation may happen for junior Captains but displacements will be far and few in between, the company has plenty of slop at the min/max staffing levels to absorb a very wide degree of movement without triggering a displacement bid, and that includes secondary vacancies and backfills..all the while keeping the vacancy bids, although monthly, to a slow cadence.

 

Great post...I agree with you, the company will do everyhing to keep training cost to the minimum...

 

They'll go to the bigger ORD 737 base probably.

 

Sure they will, like closing a 400 base and then open it back up again, lol. A very forward thinking company, lol.

 

Well compared to the forward thinking company you came from, that kept 747 that everyone else was parking and 757 with old technology and most uncapable of ETOPS and buying A320's that can't do what the 737 can do and not investing in new technology and buying new and more efficient aircraft...yes I would say we are in a more forward thinking company...oh and let's not forget the forward thinking of your company which sacrified your pension and ruined the career of thousand plus pilots...yea forward thinking.

 

John D. Rainey - EVP and CFO: As one data point, for each Boeing 757-200 that we replace with a new 737-900ER, we project more than a $2 million benefit annually on a run rate basis, inclusive of ownership cost. This adds up to a fairly substantial number as we plan to retire 73 domestic 757-200s by the end of 2015 and replace them with new 737-900ERs.

 

Go back and read the post I know it's tough but I was talking about the training cost you referenced. That is it. But no I see no forward thinking at this company at all. If you think this team as they always say is that way, best of luck to you.

 

Sled, Plan's at this place are like dirty diapers, they're changed every hour and usually full of crap

 

Great point!

These new visionaries leading us surely know what they're doing!