If you're a 76T FO in DEN the odds of you getting a guppy Captain slot via a vacancy bid is years away. If you want one this year, just wait for the displacement.

Which is why only 2 guys bid out this month.

 

Question, with all the talk of displacements Are you factoring in the new 737s 787s arriving, and the 300 or so retirements and number of medicals in the next year? Remember these bids forecast out to the future and the next several years we have a lot of guys leaving. I don't see many people getting bumped out of their seats, maybe pushed back to reserve, but honestly the 737 lines are so poor there's not a lot of diff between a line and reserve. I was getting more commutable trips on the aggressive pickup on reserve, sad to say. My line is 12/13 days off only commutable on 1 side. I know some guys want the left seat but a lot of guys will not want to give up the days off that international trips provide. Just my observation. I think the next two years will be a lot of upward movement for everyone. The LUAL guys will soon be bidding the 787 seats too.

 

You are right about the 787 future on the West Coast. We'll likely see a lot of LUAL bidding the 787 and with the drawdown of the LUAL widebody fleets many LUAL Capt and senior F/O's will be bumping into the 787 as well. Primarily because it's West Coast and Far East flying.

 

Just wait until the 787 goes into the EWR base eventually. It'll look like a piranha feeding frenzy as everyone bids it. And yes, the fence will be down by the time the 787 EWR bid is opened.

The timeframe on the 787 fence coming down is late 2015 to early 2016, or at least that's what they're telling us in EWR and based upon the current accrual rate of the 787/Scabwagon/Sparky.

 

How junior are the FO's getting SFO and LAX in the snapshots?

 

Sooo, you won't bid it then, scab cab and all?

 

Did you take a look at the latest Crew Resources Outlook on the Staffing page? "Rightsizing" shall commence in the Fall on the 76T and A320. Denver and Chicago are the primary targets. If you are displaced, by definition you lose your seat. Now, when these people bump into other positions, will there be secondary and tertiary displacements? Time will tell.

 

I prefer the name 'Sparky the Scabwagon'. Sounds legit like Thomas the Fire Engine, or Spongebob Squarepants.

 

If I somehow get bumped off of EWR 777, then yes, I'll push off a junior pilot from a 787 position.

 

Award is out.