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Old 12-08-2015, 05:06 PM
  #441  
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Originally Posted by Probe View Post
There is not now, nor has there ever been, industry stability.
While the airline business will always be subject to the business cycle never have fewer airlines (four) controlled more (82%) of the biggest airline market (US) in the world and are therefore enjoying the pricing power/profitability that comes with it.

http://www.newsweek.com/are-airline-...r-fares-360987

This is a structural change along with the dramatic increase in oil production.


Originally Posted by Probe View Post
The current shortage of pilots will be extremely short lived.
Sorry, but countless flight schools have gone out of business and the US military supply has slowed to a trickle while ATP requirements have become far more difficult to meet. This pilot/pay shortage is clearly another structural change.
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Old 12-08-2015, 05:48 PM
  #442  
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Asian carriers pay 2-4k for a narrow body FO, 7-10k for a Captain. Low cost Euro carriers are similar.

They will simply open the door to H1B visa's. Same as the tech industry. There is a shortage of RJ pilots. There will never be a shortage of pilots at the majors. There are simply too many qualified and lower paid pilots in the world.

As far as financial analysts and their opinions, they are generally straight out of college. It is an entry level job. In the boom times, they are always predicting a bigger boom. They are correct, right up until they are not.
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Old 12-08-2015, 06:01 PM
  #443  
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Originally Posted by Probe View Post
Asian carriers pay 2-4k for a narrow body FO, 7-10k for a Captain. Low cost Euro carriers are similar.
Carriers all over the world are still offering western pilots big $ to fly in both left and right seats. They cannot keep up with the projected growth. Lots of those pilots are coming back from voluntary leaves to fly back in the states. The collapse of the regionals and JetBlue's tiny level 7 program are clear evidence that the pilot/pay shortage is for real.
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Old 12-08-2015, 06:15 PM
  #444  
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Originally Posted by Flytolive View Post
Carriers all over the world are still offering western pilots big $ to fly in both left and right seats. They cannot keep up with the projected growth. Lots of those pilots are coming back from voluntary leaves to fly back in the states. The collapse of the regionals and JetBlue's tiny level 7 program are clear evidence that the pilot/pay shortage is for real.
Actually, it is carriers all over asia and the ME alone. They grew faster than they planned, and can't get FO's experienced enough to be captains fast enough. The vast majority hire experienced captains only. As soon as they have enough of their own, they will no longer employ foreigners.

I flew at one of the few expat jobs that had expat FO's. A bunch of asian, South American, and Europeans. Trust me, they will come if offered a work visa to the US. There will be no shortage at the majors. The regionals, yes. But not UAL, DAL, AMR, etc.
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Old 12-08-2015, 06:18 PM
  #445  
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The number one cockpit conversation with the local FO's revolved around how to get a pilot job in the US :<).
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Old 12-08-2015, 06:33 PM
  #446  
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Originally Posted by Probe View Post
Trust me, they will come if offered a work visa to the US.
That's just it. They won't get visas to fly for US carriers for a myriad of reasons.
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Old 12-08-2015, 07:07 PM
  #447  
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Originally Posted by Flytolive View Post
That's just it. They won't get visas to fly for US carriers for a myriad of reasons.

I don't necessarily like agreeing with what Probe said but it wasn't that long ago that United hired Canadian pilots. I don't know all the details but Vietnam was in full swing. United also hired and trained pilots with a private license.
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Old 12-08-2015, 07:25 PM
  #448  
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Originally Posted by AllenAllert View Post
I don't necessarily like agreeing with what Probe said but it wasn't that long ago that United hired Canadian pilots. I don't know all the details but Vietnam was in full swing. United also hired and trained pilots with a private license.
Training at TK is in full swing and only getting better! So it's all good such that's even the Australian Pilot's will do okay.
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Old 12-08-2015, 07:49 PM
  #449  
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Originally Posted by AllenAllert View Post
...it wasn't that long ago that United hired Canadian pilots. I don't know all the details but Vietnam was in full swing. United also hired and trained pilots with a private license.
United hired very low time pilots in the late 1960s when the military was not letting many out, but there was no 1,500 hour ATP requirement, enormous worldwide airline growth, a five year hiatus from pilot retirements that devastated the civilian training capacity or a permanent waning in the supply of military pilots.
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Old 12-08-2015, 08:06 PM
  #450  
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Skywest is already hiring foreigners, Aussies and Brits I believe. 3 year contract. Upgrade path, 80k bonus at the end of 3 years. They are also sponsoring them for a work visa.

It is already happening. Just not at the majors. Yet.
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