New bid is out.
There are a bunch of displacements. I’m still seat locked, can I volunteer to displace a junior FO who is on the “projected” displacement?

 

Thats a good question that I don’t know the answer to. I’m sure it’s addressed in the contract, but it may be worth asking on the B&G as I’m sure you aren’t the only one trying to figure that out.

 

93 new CPT positions have been created in the last two months, between the Nov bid and this Jan bid.

 

Are they all really “new” if this latest bid is for displacement and realignment?

Not being sarcastic. I’m really asking.

 

Yes, because those are CPT positions that did not exist previously.

 

The Captains positions are new, but they did create any overall new pilot positions as they are displacing equal amount of FOs. They will need to run at least one more bid this year creating net new positions if they wish to hire at all.

Based on this bid, as no new FO positions created, we will not see any hiring past the very small rumored March class, most likely AUG/SEP timeframe, if any.

What a dramatic 180 deg turn from the last 2 years compared to the pax carriers. Barring another major event or deep recession, the PAX airlines are going to be hiring for a long time and a lot. Compared to our puny trickle hiring going forward.

 

To get a truly accurate answer, one would need to look at total Captain seats in each fleet over time. The 8 300 Cpt seats are certainly due to retirement, as well as MD. Are there 66 seats that weren't available before? Yes. Is the total number of Captain seats at the airline going up? More of an A.M. or EB question (my guess is a little bit more total seats).

 

Yes, we are just returning to normal ops here at UPS. The last few years here have been out of the norm for this place and going forward, probably back to a 8-10 year upgrade. I would not be surprised to see some junior guys jump to the the Pax carriers as there are way more opportunities for advancement there. I also see hiring slow wayyyyy down and even stop for some time here after March.

 

I don’t see upgrade going up that far with the retirement numbers that are coming the next few years. Hiring will be slowed but will still need to happen at a slower pace.

 

The airline grew by 53 airframes (22%) in five years starting Oct 2017. We're adding 28 more 767s in the next four years, including nine this year, though six MDs will get parked. Future of the MD beyond this year, or at least the Pratt-powered ones, is TBD.

In the same five year period, the pilot group grew by over 750 pilots (27.5%). 2022 represented the biggest pilot hiring year at UPS since 1994, and the seniority list grew by 286 (8.9%).

The bids in Nov and Jan created 93 new CPT positions in two months, albeit no new vacancies for newhires. Training will start next month for the Jan bid, which has an effective date of mid-July.

The retirement curve has been flattened by early retirements, with attrition running 2-3x mandatory retirements for a number of years now, but our mandatory retirement wave really begins 2026 then runs for over a decade.

None of that is to say things are all puppies and rainbows...but IMO the sky ain't falling.