What would be considered junior enough to at risk? Is it done by seat and fleet or overall seniority?

 

No way to tell until it actually happens..all speculation until then. Its by fleet and seat but all trickles down to lowest seniority.

 

A friend of mine says the current system bid will precede a displacement bid next month to park a 5-10 (rounded up to 6-9) MD-11s. Anyone else hear something similar? I’m gonna sit tight as a poolie keeping faith that the sky isn’t falling, and I realize there is a lot of speculation happening right now, but in the absence of any real info from ATL it’s just kind of therapeutic to sit here and speculate with the other poolies while we wait for the phone to ring.

Confirmation rumors? If so, how many MD-11 crews would be displaced by parking 6-9 MD-11s?

 

Its all guess work right now, and anyone pretending to know does not. I can easily see that scenario playing out, but why didn’t they just run a realignment/ displacement on the current bid instead of a tiny vacancy?

Not a whole lot makes sense at the moment.

 

A Vacancy bid consisting of 100% Captain positions is being viewed as somehow bad...

We're getting a number of 767 deliveries next year that will need to be staffed. Parking some number of MDs beginning after Peak has been rumored for months, and Q3'22 financial statements show two more 747-8 under option. What happening when has an impact on manpower needs, which impacts training capacity for transitions AND newhires. Perhaps they knew they need a number of Captains in the near term, regardless of whatever happens with the fleet, so they published a small vacancy now and will do a larger bid later when plans have been finalized? They'll need more than 27 positions if they want to run more than one or two small classes in early 2023...which there's every indication they will given 94 hires will have 30 years longevity next year.

Sky ain't falling.

 

The MD is going away……The question is what is the exact timeline???? My guess is that it will be gone sooner than later due to falling volume and forecast worsening recession in 2023.

 

Many mocked me when I kept stating until they have a clear replacement plan for the MD, we have to assume we are going net negative. A small fleet going even smaller 😢

 

A bit premature for the I told you so comments. I can easily see a net 0, but net negative isn’t a thing quite yet. 26 + 1 BCF 76s, and potentially 2 more 74-8, while the current projection is a loss of 21 MDs over the next several years.

Always subject to change, but that’s not net negative. I can agree things will move much slower going forward though. That isn’t very difficult to see at this point.

 

Based on Q2 and Q3'22 financial statements, we've already added a pax aircraft to our fleet but it won't enter service until sometime next year. We have 27 factory new 767s on order.

That's 28 additional 767s, vs. 21 MDs with time-limited Pratt engines.

Sky ain't falling.

 

Just so we are clear…what number exactly are you predicting to be net negative?