For 2023:

So net increase of 3 tails ~ 26 pilots

31 Mandatory retirements.

~ 57 required new hires, minimum. Early retirements and other attrition will raise that.

Looking at AM's Ops Reports, block hours are down. IMO we are "slightly" overstaffed. I think wait and see will be UPS's MO. If the March class is really three as reported in above post, that covers the last vacancy bid. The MD is overstaffed after the parking of 6 and small realignment bids/retirements will cover the growth on other fleets. Might not be the news people want to hear, but I have seen this movie before here.

We are most definitely not overstaffed, running around 12 pilots per plane, that is very lean. The 70 or so MD overstaffing issue will take care of most of the 76 deliveries this year (realignment). My crystal ball tells me maybe 50 total hires this year, and maybe 40-50 upgrades at best to cover small amount of retirements, unless we see larger number of early outs (we won’t see a new contract until 2026 at the earliest, don’t expect many to stick around that long). Next 2-3 years are gonna see very slow movement with similar numbers, maybe a tad more with 2024 and beyond with a bit more retirements.

I hope you are right, 50 total 2023 new hires isn't much after the classes in Jan, Feb, and reported 3 in March come onboard. I think they will hold tight, get an idea of the economy and parking schedule for the 6 MDs, run a displacement off the MD to staff 76 deliveries, and then look to hire a few. Retirements have slowed (especially early), and who can blame a change in plans with the market and news. JA is in the tank, the 74 staffing emergency is over. Not doom and gloom, just reality.

UPS Hiring?
 

Is UPS hiring now? I was able to find all other airline’s pilot recruitment website except UPS.
Could you please give me a link to apply for UPS?

Thank you

New bid out. All predictions appear to be incorrect. It’s a weird bid.

0 positions for new hires. So hiring has officially stopped for at least a little while. Any poolies need to take notice.

For poolies et als., this was a realignment bid that presented 66 captain openings almost entirely in SDF and weighted to 767. In addition, it is displacing 66 FOs, mostly out of ANC 747 and some SDF MD. It was not a massive MD retirement bid - there are 12 MD captain slots being awarded… go figure.

So, you’re gunna see some fleet and domicile shuffling with the captains and the 66 FOs upgrading. Probably won’t see too many actual displacements.

Summer bid will likely have the remaining 50ish vacancy slots for new hires as discussed above.

Not great news but not bad either.

Well that should open up some nice anc crashpads for me.

SDF75, SDFZ, and MIA are also seeing FO displacements. Doesn’t necessarily make a lot of sense to me with more 76s coming, but nobody asked me. I think there are more dominoes yet to fall and the company is still hedging their bets.