That guy obviously didn't get the memo that the LCAs are home based the first year and bidding with them will not work.

 

Long term it'll work, but you're right that they have a period before they have to be based with the aircraft (I think it's the next AE that they'll be required to bid to the a/c though). That said, it's the only explanation I could think of why he'd bid like that.

 

I mean this in the most unsarcastic, loving way possible...seriously.

Your post makes it clear that YOU are not getting it. What you are missing is that because of the movement at Delta your Delta buddies are going to fly past you on the SEA BPL. You are looking in the rear-view mirror saying see...i'm ahead of that guy back there me in my little old prius. Only he is coming up behind you going 200mph in a ferrari.

I have a feeling that that is why you have been proven wrong on this thread. Maybe you checked in with your friends when you got hired on, perhaps last year. Only they have been flying up the BPLl in the meantime since you talked to them. That difference is not going to stop. It is only going to get worse.

If you are here because you love SEA so much you don't want to risk your SEA base ever closing, your dad was a Captain here so you like wearing his old wings to work everyday, or whatever then fine. But it is a mistake to extrapolate the last 2 years of movement in SEA over your career and think that that is what will happen for the next 20 or 25 years.

I haven't looked at it, but I am guessing that in the last 2 years SEA flying has grown such that you stayed put on the BPL as far as hard count, but because the flying increased you are now a line-holder. The difference in QOL between a line and reserve is large. You are probably feeling pretty good. Congratulations. Now begins the slog up the bid packet that will take you the better part of a decade on the FO side and the rest of your career on the Captain side to climb. 737 pilots at Delta in SEA won't have nearly as long a journey as you will.

 

PNWflyer gets beat up on his own forum as bad as he does on SWA’s? I’m shocked.

 

And the same on TPN.

 

12 yr CA making 266/hr plus 15.5% retirement to start over at the big 3? No way. That doesn't make any financial sense. First year you're gonna make 80-85k at most of those places and 2nd yr about 130k-145k. Compared to giving up 270-300k/yr here, those 2 yrs you'd give up nearly 400 grand (or more). And it'll continue to be a paycut until you upgrade again at the legacy in the base you want and then start to make up on the lost opportunity cost of what you gave up to start over. Not to mention the loss of vacation, QOL, schedules you held, to start over again. Another huge threat is a downturn and being at the bottom of a 14,000 pilot list. As previously stated if you have less than 5 yrs invested here, the decision to leave is easier. But 12 yr CA? No. You'd be hard pressed to find any 12 yr CA at Southwest, jetBlue, or Alaska leaving to start over at the bottom of the big 3.

Besides, leaving AS solely for SEA at Delta is a gamble itself too. Delta gained SEA through the NWA merger and only in the past several years opened more categories there like the 737. One major downturn in the economy, or a realignment in the international strategy, joint venturing out, consolidating to LAX or SLC, anything could happen and the SEA base could shrink or go poof. SEA isn't ATL, and history has shown itself with Delta and its bases at PDX and DFW and soon to be CVG. United was huge in SEA once too. 737s, 75/767, 777s. All gone. Good luck with a SEA gamble.

 

Nice post. These were my thoughts exactly when I read tunes' ridiculous post but didn't have any skin in the game to care enough to respond. You pretty much nailed every point that came to my mind.


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From a financial standpoint it does. From a QOL standpoint it would take longer to recover. The previous vx guys that lost the NYC it's a no brainier. We have line holding captains on 3 airplanes in NYC in under 4 years. 4 yr captain pay is higher than AS 12 year captain pay. Tack in profit sharing and that 2-3 years of taking the pay cut is softened. West coast, I agree with you it's probably not worth it. But if having options are what you like then it's worth considering. The beauty is everyone has a choice.


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You said it’s worth leaving even as a max cap 12th yr CA. Your math just doesn’t add up, it does not make financial sense. AS 12th yr pay is 92-93% of Delta on the same equipment. Profit sharing can disappear like a fart in the wind (downturn, no profit years). In the post 9/11 downturn, Delta took a 32.5% hit and for a while AS had higher pay. Those were bad times and some Delta guys took their own life (as some did at other airlines too).

You go straight to those 2015 CAs and don’t acknowledge the loss of pay as 1st, 2nd, 3rd yr FO, assuming you even get to upgrade then (and esp in a base you want). I’m not gonna get into the argument of those rare unicorns who drop their lines and green slip their way through. Those are not the norm. Go with straight guarantee pay x12 months. Do that math as FO for 4 yrs. Now do that again with $266/hr at guarantee x12 months for those same 4 yrs. Its over a million dollars. As FO for the first 4 yrs, skewed with lower 1st yr pay, it’s 500-550k. Not talking unicorns, simply hourly rate x guarantee x 12 months. Now calculate how long it would take you to make up over 500 grand when your current rate today already pays within 93% of Delta. Say an AS 12th yr narrowbody makes 266/hr and the Delta guy is 285/hr. 19/hr difference, x75 hr guarantee (lower at Delta sometimes with ALV) x 12 months, and you get 18 grand. 27 yrs times 18 grand would make the 500k you lost your first 4 yrs. Thats not a good comparison either because that extra 500 grand you earned 27 yrs ago is worth a lot more today. You could make the argument of Delta widebodies pay, true, but not anytime soon, and esp not behind 4,600 newhires since 2014.

It’s the opportunity cost you are not accounting for. To reiterate, it does not make financial sense for a 12th yr AS max cap CA to start over again. You’d be foolish to give up 12th yr CA at AS to start over at the bottom of a legacy.

(And btw, AS guys hired before 2010 still have a pension. Only about 300 are in the full pension system, the rest are in a rebalanced formula, but still pension nonetheless).

 

I still disagree. Yes PS can disappear tomorrow but it won't next year or even the next. The ALV of 75 is pretty accurate. You have months that are 72 then you have months that are 85 so I'd say calling it 75 for the year is accurate. Like I said before If you are an East coast guy it makes total sense to bounce even after 12 years...for the west coast guys Id agree with your 5 year assessment. Not trying to brag but I haven't hit 4th year pay yet and I'm going to make over 200k as a FO as a commuter...I usually average 16-18 days a month working. If you live in base you could easily surpass that.

The pension you got me. The opportunity cost is up to the individual...I'd argue it's worth exploring if you want variety of flying in your career...if you don't then probably not.


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