My takeaway from Flight Path / V1
02-02-2019, 01:05 PM
#101
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Joined APC: Jan 2014
Posts: 134
Originally Posted by Mea25000
Uhm... The retirements are built in to those numbers. The back end attrition is rarely anywhere near the upgrade line, usually falling off the very bottom realistically affecting no one. Early on there may be a slight increase of east cost FO departures closer to that line but this will be a very small number.
Alaska upgrade time for anyone hired 2016 to current should be 7 - 11.5 years. I know that isn’t sexy. Those are just the facts.
Alaska upgrade time for anyone hired 2016 to current should be 7 - 11.5 years. I know that isn’t sexy. Those are just the facts.
02-02-2019, 03:50 PM
#103
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Joined APC: Dec 2007
Posts: 341
Originally Posted by AtlCSIP
I think he was referring to attrition other than retirements. As you said, however, that number is probably relatively small. There will be some minor exodus due to JFK closing, plus some young guys wanting different kinds of flying opportunities, as well as a few medical early outs, but these will likely be relatively small numbers.
02-02-2019, 04:45 PM
#104
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Joined APC: May 2018
Posts: 1,173
Originally Posted by lowflying
If by young you mean under 50 then I think you're spot on...
02-02-2019, 04:55 PM
#105
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Joined APC: Feb 2007
Posts: 1,282
Originally Posted by Mea25000
303, 737/320 aircraft by the end of 2024. NG/Max only fleet decision
3,650 seniority by the end of 2024
900 total new hires 2019- end of 2024
320 reduction bid moved from spring 2019 to Summer 2019, most likely June, effective November 1st. (20-30 positions)
3,650 seniority by the end of 2024
900 total new hires 2019- end of 2024
320 reduction bid moved from spring 2019 to Summer 2019, most likely June, effective November 1st. (20-30 positions)
Originally Posted by Mea25000
Alaska upgrade time for anyone hired 2016 to current should be 7 - 11.5 years. I know that isn’t sexy. Those are just the facts.
These seem like contradictory statements to me.. if we are growing with 900 new hires and ~65 airframes then how would you expect the upgrade time to go to 7-11 years.
Early 2016 hire is ~73% on the list.
Late 2016 hire is ~80% on the list.
02-02-2019, 05:22 PM
#106
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Posts: 1,173
Originally Posted by ImperialxRat
These seem like contradictory statements to me.. if we are growing with 900 new hires and ~65 airframes then how would you expect the upgrade time to go to 7-11 years.
Early 2016 hire is ~73% on the list.
Late 2016 hire is ~80% on the list.
Early 2016 hire is ~73% on the list.
Late 2016 hire is ~80% on the list.
Dude are you kidding me? He did the math for you. 10% attrition over the next 6 years. We will hire 900 during that time... ding ding that equals roughly 450 CA positions or 450/ 2950 =‘s 16%. 10% + 16% = 26%... that means his numbers are absolutely correct. He said a new hire today would be 72% in 6 years. My math says 74% but I think his math was more precise. And that is only if we hire 900. You are either really bad at math or really new to this industry...
02-02-2019, 05:36 PM
#107
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Posts: 1,173
Originally Posted by ImperialxRat
These seem like contradictory statements to me.. if we are growing with 900 new hires and ~65 airframes then how would you expect the upgrade time to go to 7-11 years.
Early 2016 hire is ~73% on the list.
Late 2016 hire is ~80% on the list.
Early 2016 hire is ~73% on the list.
Late 2016 hire is ~80% on the list.
2299/ 2921= 79%
May 2017 right now is at 86%
2505/ 2921= 86%
If low growth happens pilots hired in August of 2016 will move from 79% to 60% or a possible Captain bid by 2025
If high growth happens pilots hired in May 2017 will move from 86% to 60% or a possible Captain bid by 2024
Either way all the Captains are already here
The more I look at it Mea is right, Captain at Alaska for a new hire is realistically 12 years.
Last edited by OTZeagle1; 02-02-2019 at 06:11 PM.
02-02-2019, 05:37 PM
#108
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Alaska is still a good place to pass through on your way to a Major Airline. And if UPS, FedEx, Delta, United, American or Southwest dont call then a 7-11 year upgrade is not a punch in the throat. Hard to say what Contract 2022 will bring. We will have been on Contract 200 (2013)for 9 years by then. For us, the loss of a fleet type will slow down movement considerably. BradBen calls it synergy a synonym for stagnation.
02-02-2019, 05:56 PM
#110
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Posts: 1,282
Originally Posted by OTZeagle1
Dude are you kidding me? He did the math for you. 10% attrition over the next 6 years. We will hire 900 during that time... ding ding that equals roughly 450 CA positions or 450/ 2950 =‘s 16%. 10% + 16% = 26%... that means his numbers are absolutely correct. He said a new hire today would be 72% in 6 years. My math says 74% but I think his math was more precise. And that is only if we hire 900. You are either really bad at math or really new to this industry...
You need to relax a couple notches.. don't get so worked up over the internet, it's okay.
My comment was related to a 2016 hire, not a new hire today.
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