So today I looked at the Pilot webpage and under operation news they show us at 51% load factors. Not great. But not as grim as you put it.

I wonder where OTZ/MEA gets his numbers how he even has access to our ticket pricing stats? Or how accurate this numbers even are?

 

that’s what a union busting provocateur does. claims all kinds of connections etc, Union busting Ford and Harrison uses these types of attacks and leaks often to make it look as though your union is not effective. It’s rather useful most of time unfortunately for the company. Never forget we are also in a contract negotiation and this company will not let a crisis go to waste. Listen to ALPA they know what they know and are transparent likewise, they aren’t getting transparent info from OTZ sure he may know inside info but obviously unverified and seems to undergo zero factual verification, and as of yet has revealed zero sources so look at OTZ info for what it is ...unverified and rumor until otherwise confirmed.

 

If we were still running the same number of flights as pre-COVID our load factor would be less than 10%. And it’s been indicated ticket prices have been discounted just to get that amount of traffic. That seems pretty grim to me.

We are currently staffed for a pre-COVID level. How much would revenue need to increase for the company to decide they’ll just run fat on pilots and bank the goodwill? Probably a much higher number than what we’ll see by Oct. 1st unfortunately. If we’re lucky traffic might be back to 50% of normal levels. I hope Alaska will want to compete for as much of that traffic as possible, like I believe southwest is getting ready to do, but that’s never been this company’s MO.

You and I are pretty close in seniority I believe, so I get it. The prospect of a furlough sucks. I’ve been furloughed before and I honestly thought I’d never have to worry about it in my career again but here we are.

I will concede nobody can predict what’s going to happen, everyone who’s tried to predict other aspects of this crisis have been pretty far off the mark so far so I’m still holding out hope we’ll all be surprised and see demand in air travel rise as fast as it fell off. Unfortunately my optimism is waning again as I watch the social unrest unfolding across our cities tonight.

 

if tsa number reachs 1mil by end of june It is thought by experts we are mid level return anything less is not good anything more is better. 1 million by end of june I believe we will be at 80% by new year I’m just another opinion I have one like everybody i’ll be back then to say I got lucky and got it right or will be furloughed licking my wounds good luck to all

 

I’m planning on a furlough but still can’t stand these BS numbers designed to cause F.U.D.

Even the company is reporting better numbers than OTZ/MEA


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My numbers were for the whole month of May dude, and my numbers are really accurate. Alaska hopes to run 70ish% load factors June, July, and August... with about 30-35% of the capacity we were planning on this Summer, with a yeild that would make you blush. October we hope to be at 40% capacity with 45% load, November 55% capacity with 50% load, December cross your fingers 60/60 then soften a little until late spring. Summer of 2021 will be a smashing success, if we can run 70/70 for that three month period. Yield is way down though, if all that happens and yield goes to were we expect, ‘2021 full year will be break even or a trickle profit.

 

not planning furlough is not being responsible I’m just saying there is as much to be optimistic about about as there is fear to feed on. We have chaos in america tonite, a fueled election sound the corner with as much different ideological ideas as ever seen there are lots of holes in the cheese pieces now as we have ever seen hopefully society can avoid these, I believe the human spirit will prevail but preparing for the worst

 

OTZ are those numbers concrete or based on metrics that are unknown how can they possibly be concrete with unknown metrics?

 

OTZ I totally agree with those numbers yet outside influences are now evolving on a monthly basis vs quarterly basis and to have steadfast realistic view forward beyond a few months of what used to be a year is unrealistic but yes I agree with those dart board stats today that could be dramatically changed 3 months out. crazy times we live in.

 

Those numbers are hopes and wishes, filled with a significant amount of pixie dust. It’s what Alaska is planning for, what it optimistically hopes for. They are the numbers we expect on modeling, they obviously could be junk. They however are based on the modeling of very capable, very intelligent economists. I hope in three years we look back and laugh about how pessimistic and inaccurate they turn out to be. My gut tells me though, that those numbers will be found to be very accurate and I am a glassful kind of guy.

Our ridership over the last two weeks has risen significantly but we are still down (83%) from where we should be at right now.... better then down 90% but still down 83%. We are about where we expected to be on modeling. At this point I think people just make up their own reality and believe what they want to believe. If I ever get wind of good news, I will post it at the speed of light... At this point all I see is solvency and a 3-5 year recovery.