Union Dues
05-28-2020, 06:44 PM
#221
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2017
Posts: 463
Originally Posted by beancounter
You are? I thought you said in an earlier post Alaska is furloughing hundreds, which is it?
So says the guy wearing the rose colored (Alaskan Kool Aid) glasses.
So says the guy wearing the rose colored (Alaskan Kool Aid) glasses.
05-28-2020, 07:07 PM
#223
New Hire
Joined APC: Jul 2017
Posts: 2
You’re not debunking anything
Originally Posted by OTZeagle1
Really, that is ridiculous and absolutely untrue. I have good friends in prominent roles at the union, they are doing what they can, I would do no better. I spend seconds on this site debunking nonsense, most of my friends give up many hours a day trying help the pilot group.
And please don’t insult everyone here by saying you “spend seconds” on this site. I think you spend more time here than you spend flying. Are you even a line pilot for Alaska? Someone said you were removed from a union position. Seems likely to me. You claim that you’re trying to help our pilot group. How is what you’re posting here helping?
05-28-2020, 07:22 PM
#224
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: May 2018
Posts: 1,174
This is the exact reason the union should have said something.... You have 400 people on a manic ride. One minute they are low realizing the unthinkable is about to happen, the next sky high because AAL is running new hire classes, and back straight down when they realize it wasn’t true.
Right now AS is running about 24% of its 2020 planned schedule at 40% load factor, at 65% of last year ticket pricing. Right now fall looks about a 40-50% load on a significantly reduced schedule. We are forecasting 817 bid blocks August ‘21. Everyone is smarter then this but I get it, I have lost a loved one, everyday I woke up I was happy, then I remembered. No matter where you are on the seniority list you want to believe the impossible, I get it.
Right now AS is running about 24% of its 2020 planned schedule at 40% load factor, at 65% of last year ticket pricing. Right now fall looks about a 40-50% load on a significantly reduced schedule. We are forecasting 817 bid blocks August ‘21. Everyone is smarter then this but I get it, I have lost a loved one, everyday I woke up I was happy, then I remembered. No matter where you are on the seniority list you want to believe the impossible, I get it.
05-29-2020, 01:41 AM
#226
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Dec 2005
Posts: 8,898
Originally Posted by OTZeagle1
This is the exact reason the union should have said something.... You have 400 people on a manic ride. One minute they are low realizing the unthinkable is about to happen, the next sky high because AAL is running new hire classes, and back straight down when they realize it wasn’t true.
Right now AS is running about 24% of its 2020 planned schedule at 40% load factor, at 65% of last year ticket pricing. Right now fall looks about a 40-50% load on a significantly reduced schedule. We are forecasting 817 bid blocks August ‘21. Everyone is smarter then this but I get it, I have lost a loved one, everyday I woke up I was happy, then I remembered. No matter where you are on the seniority list you want to believe the impossible, I get it.
Right now AS is running about 24% of its 2020 planned schedule at 40% load factor, at 65% of last year ticket pricing. Right now fall looks about a 40-50% load on a significantly reduced schedule. We are forecasting 817 bid blocks August ‘21. Everyone is smarter then this but I get it, I have lost a loved one, everyday I woke up I was happy, then I remembered. No matter where you are on the seniority list you want to believe the impossible, I get it.
I'm not doubting you. I'm just wondering about the outside firm AS has hired to look at demand outlook for Summer 2021. AS isn't the only one, pretty much every major airline has done the same. My only question is since this is absolutely unprecedented in modern history, how exactly can they predict anything for next summer? It would have to make large assumptions about a lot of factors (second wave, third wave, vaccine, treatments, etc).
05-29-2020, 04:22 AM
#227
Line Holder
Joined APC: Apr 2016
Posts: 31
05-29-2020, 04:48 AM
#228
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: May 2018
Posts: 1,174
Originally Posted by PokerPilot007
Southwest raised a ton of liquidity, they are ready, my guess is they may be going for the jugular with AAL. If all that capacity keeps AAL at or near current burn rates, they would likely have to file around the first of the year. Essentially, modeling says 50,70,90% return by next summer, most airlines are planning the middle.
I think it’s important to note: those are domestic travel returns only.
Last edited by OTZeagle1; 05-29-2020 at 05:00 AM.
05-29-2020, 04:57 AM
#229
Line Holder
Joined APC: Apr 2016
Posts: 31
Alaska has access to the same liquidity as Southwest. The only difference is Southwest is always on offense and Alaska has never picked a fight it couldn’t run away from. Alaska and Southwest are the two healthiest airlines in the US, but only one is going to come out the other side stronger & bigger.
05-29-2020, 05:54 AM
#230
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: May 2018
Posts: 1,174
I will make this really simple:
Alaska made 8,781,000,000 in 2019
If revenue returns at 70%, that means AS has a 6,147,000,000 dollar pile of money for 2021.
The costs to run our full operation are about 7,718,000,000, that means we would be short or lose (1,571,000,000) for the year. That would not work.
If we reduce our operating costs by 20%, our expenses will be roughly, 6,174,000,000
70 % 2919 revenue 6,147,000,000
Minus 80% 2019 costs -6,174,000,000
Equals a survivable negative number (27,000,000)
We are not Southwest, we do not have Southwest cost structure. We are determined to survive this and take advantage on the backside. We are not looking to become one of the big 4, we are about responsibly growing our brand.
Alaska made 8,781,000,000 in 2019
If revenue returns at 70%, that means AS has a 6,147,000,000 dollar pile of money for 2021.
The costs to run our full operation are about 7,718,000,000, that means we would be short or lose (1,571,000,000) for the year. That would not work.
If we reduce our operating costs by 20%, our expenses will be roughly, 6,174,000,000
70 % 2919 revenue 6,147,000,000
Minus 80% 2019 costs -6,174,000,000
Equals a survivable negative number (27,000,000)
We are not Southwest, we do not have Southwest cost structure. We are determined to survive this and take advantage on the backside. We are not looking to become one of the big 4, we are about responsibly growing our brand.
Thread
Thread Starter
Forum
Replies
Last Post
