Union Dues
#231
You can probably sustain a niche business model, catering to specific customer demographics (ULCC, biz travel, vacation travel). But the days of niche regional legacies are over, too many 800 pound gorillas ready to eat your lunch.
HAL might be the only sustainable example because of their unique geography and brand (assuming they survive this).
Eventually AS is going to have to responsibly team up with somebody. They essentially spent $4B to keep JB out of the west coast... how often can they do that sort of move going forward?
#232
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Apr 2018
Posts: 669
What do you think is the likely horizon for that to happen?
Will it be in 5 years when they come to realize that is the best option, or will they be proactive and do it early to take advantage of an airline's weakness?
Last edited by All Bizniz; 05-29-2020 at 07:47 AM.
#233
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2017
Posts: 463
I will make this really simple:
Alaska made 8,781,000,000 in 2019
If revenue returns at 70%, that means AS has a 6,147,000,000 dollar pile of money for 2021.
The costs to run our full operation are about 7,718,000,000, that means we would be short or lose (1,571,000,000) for the year. That would not work.
If we reduce our operating costs by 20%, our expenses will be roughly, 6,174,000,000
70 % 2919 revenue 6,147,000,000
Minus 80% 2019 costs -6,174,000,000
Equals a survivable negative number (27,000,000)
We are not Southwest, we do not have Southwest cost structure. We are determined to survive this and take advantage on the backside. We are not looking to become one of the big 4, we are about responsibly growing our brand.
Alaska made 8,781,000,000 in 2019
If revenue returns at 70%, that means AS has a 6,147,000,000 dollar pile of money for 2021.
The costs to run our full operation are about 7,718,000,000, that means we would be short or lose (1,571,000,000) for the year. That would not work.
If we reduce our operating costs by 20%, our expenses will be roughly, 6,174,000,000
70 % 2919 revenue 6,147,000,000
Minus 80% 2019 costs -6,174,000,000
Equals a survivable negative number (27,000,000)
We are not Southwest, we do not have Southwest cost structure. We are determined to survive this and take advantage on the backside. We are not looking to become one of the big 4, we are about responsibly growing our brand.
Southwest might well be targeting AA, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see them take a good percentage of our Hawaii market share(once Hawaii opens again), In the meantime we’ll be sitting around with hundreds of furloughs and airplanes parked with no way to react quickly enough.
#234
Line Holder
Joined APC: May 2018
Posts: 36
AS is too small to get away with that long term.
You can probably sustain a niche business model, catering to specific customer demographics (ULCC, biz travel, vacation travel). But the days of niche regional legacies are over, too many 800 pound gorillas ready to eat your lunch.
HAL might be the only sustainable example because of their unique geography and brand (assuming they survive this).
Eventually AS is going to have to responsibly team up with somebody. They essentially spent $4B to keep JB out of the west coast... how often can they do that sort of move going forward?
You can probably sustain a niche business model, catering to specific customer demographics (ULCC, biz travel, vacation travel). But the days of niche regional legacies are over, too many 800 pound gorillas ready to eat your lunch.
HAL might be the only sustainable example because of their unique geography and brand (assuming they survive this).
Eventually AS is going to have to responsibly team up with somebody. They essentially spent $4B to keep JB out of the west coast... how often can they do that sort of move going forward?
#235
Line Holder
Joined APC: May 2018
Posts: 36
With all due respect I haven’t seen much meaningful growing of the brand anywhere outside Seattle even before the virus sent things south. It seems there strategy even before all this was to consolidate into Seattle as much as possible and leave some token regional service in California.
Southwest might well be targeting AA, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see them take a good percentage of our Hawaii market share(once Hawaii opens again), In the meantime we’ll be sitting around with hundreds of furloughs and airplanes parked with no way to react quickly enough.
Southwest might well be targeting AA, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see them take a good percentage of our Hawaii market share(once Hawaii opens again), In the meantime we’ll be sitting around with hundreds of furloughs and airplanes parked with no way to react quickly enough.
#236
We didn't have much market share in either places anyway compared to SWA. At any given time there might be one AS plane at a gate compared to 10+ SWA
#237
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: Jul 2006
Position: Soon to be Ex Dash-Trash
Posts: 270
Since you actually know, why don't you tell all the pilots? This is a small audience and the entire pilot group could benefit from your "knowledge." A quick email to the entire pilot group from your outlook account would work.
#238
Gets Weekends Off
Joined APC: May 2017
Posts: 936
The sad thing is in a lot of markets it will likely be 11 SWA planes and no mainline AS aircraft in a year or two. I'd give the current podcast a good listen. If anything it shows our management team to be, well the nicest way to say it: our management team does not inspire confidence.
#239
“We are determined to survive this and take advantage on the backside.” - How? I’ve heard only one “plan” since I’ve been here. “Most West Coast”, and we packed up that slogan like a cheap suit and retrenched SEA long before the Covid. And, I know I’ve heard that “we don’t like to Telegraph our moves/plans. We keep our cards close to our vest.” Passive aggressive? Ok! But JUST passive?
“....we are about responsibly growing our brand.” - to WHOM? The part of PNW market that doesn’t already use us, is unfamiliar with our product?
Before Covid, SEA seemed like it was in full on panic mode to save gates from being allocated to Delta. The big four are gonna be quite a bit leaner in the aftermath too. With a serious reduction in International flying. I would think our little gold nugget of PNW and AK flying would look pretty appetizing to one or more carriers to go after and try and recoup some of their Covid loss.
I’m not taking a “tone” here at all. I’m just saying that words are empty and if “ifs” and “buts” were candy and nuts we’d ALL have a Merry Christmas.”
I dont doubt our ability financially to produce dividends. But, I’ll believe we’re gonna do that through gaining market share when I see it.
#240
On Reserve
Joined APC: Jan 2020
Posts: 14
Yes, regularly. “We have to wait, let the whole thing play out”- is the just of the response. I feel that is irresponsible, reckless, and unkind to those affected. Surprisingly, there are strong differences of opinion amongst the union ranks. I would argue all wish for the same outcome but path, poster, and stance varies greatly. Some are intelligent and have common sense, others only guided by anger and bitterness. There are strong rifts in our union, many will not talk to others, save me all the BS and kumbaya, I actually know what is going on.
They are in the business of dealing with facts and the information at hand, not some info that is coming from a union busting management plant. But yet it appears that the union busting management plant will continue to come on here and tout the BS line and get their ego stroked and never be able to stay away.
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