NewGuy01

I was sincerely hoping E.J. would have answered that question. The Seattle area has an insane increase in value, even since I bought my home 2.5 years ago. Just looking at market fundamentals anyone working the last two years is making 22% less today than 2 years ago.

It’s no wonder that contract negotiations will be dragged out as long as possible. We are working for a huge discount.

I don’t feel like it’s fair to point at real estate gains in the PNW and suggest a second income from real estate, if you got your start 20 years ago. It’s actually going to be extremely difficult for any pilot hired this year to gain enough traction to even buy a home in any of our bases for the foreseeable future. Assuming they do not have a down payment already available. Not to mention income property.


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All Bizniz

That's a very reasonable position to take, and I often times think the same way too.

However, taking the glass half full approach, I tell myself that there are multiple kids being born right now, into ordinary circumstances who will grow up, get into real estate, and do very well, just like many ordinary Americans have done for generations.

If that is true, then I also believe that people can get in, in our lifetime, and eventually do well.

It's never too late.

flyprdu

That might have been true in the past, but the advent of investment buyers in real estate is a game changer.

Suddenly, real estate values aren't permitted to retract. It pushes the bar higher and higher away from first time buyers.

If these trends continue, where most Americans cannot afford to be homeowners, we're looking at the biggest transfer of wealth in generations.

ShyGuy

You can thank the printing of money like there’s no tomorrow. Hopefully one day we will do a full report on Covid and the actions we took to fight Covid. Why did we print checks out to every American? Airline workers, restaurant workers, anyone directly affected, sure. But literally millions and millions of Americans had no pay cut or change in income, their job simply continued as work from home. They didn’t need the extra money, their income and job continued. And the first two bailouts, ok. The third round under Biden was absolute ridiculousness. Completely unnecessary.

Another huge problem is as people became work from home, they bailed on the big cities for cheaper states. But their employers NEVER adjusted their salaries to the new state locality! I know 3 families that left the Bay Area and LA and moved to MI and TX. They took their CA-level salaries and bought much cheaper (relatively speaking) houses (mansions) in those states. This absolutely sky rocketed prices. Even the small town my parents are in PA, people did bidding wars. Ridiculous!

My tenant in NJ stopped paying rent. I didn’t get rent for 6 months. I was down some serious money. Why? She had applied for rental assistance and because she knew there was an eviction moratorium. NJ pushed that out even longer than the federal deadline. Granted, she lost her job in 2020 but between stimulus, unemployment, and crazy hiring going on everywhere, one would think there shouldn’t be a problem? In the end, she got approved for 15 months free rent (from max 18). I got two checks from the state of NJ totaling 40 grand. Gee, I wish someone would my pay house free for 1.25 years!

This is all gonna bite us in the ass. So much money printed and thrown out like candy. The only reason the economy is doing fine is because people are spending money despite high inflation. Just watch, as soon as spending slows because people have had it with higher prices, we will stagnate the economy and have inflation sticking around due to various pressures in the entire system (including supply chain issues). Hello stagflation. Personally I think it’s inevitable and it’s coming.

There’s no easy fix for stagflation. IMO as interest rates come up and we have stagflation, I think housing will cool down a bit. Not drastic, and certainly nothing like the housing bubble bust around the GFC, but still think a nice cooling is coming up.

flyprdu

You know I'd love to have a landlord who cried about my financial woes online too.

ShyGuy

Why? You one of those people who stopped paying their rent during the pandemic?

Hot Dog

I did, I had too, this place doesn’t pay sh$&t year one at 79 hours. And who knew we would have a job.

ZINTKAZ

I might be wrong but isn’t everybody’s pay shi#$$ the first year. Like less than $100 an hour for a narrow body. Granted it’s not the 36 bucks an hour it was two decades ago due to obvious crap like COLA and inflation. Glad your headed to a place that maybe you can make it up in year 2-4 that has a better contract.

Texasbound

Good thing you didn't work for Delta. New hires sent home from training were paid considerably less.

EskimoJoe

Of course not. Not unless they bring Capital from some other source. Guess what? When I was a new hire, neither could I. I developed Partnerships, formed LLC's and worked hard to deliver. Sweat equity turns into Capital equity. Look. We're all W2 wage earners. We're sitting ducks. The taxes are crushing. You're NEVER going to be "wealthy" when you get paid on the 5th and the 20th. I don't care WHAT Airline you're talking about. This job is nothing more than a safety net with cheap insurance, steady income, free travel, and an opportunity to play with the big noisy toys. None of which is to say I don't get it. Again, this contract needs a complete re-write. I won't agree to anything that isn't. That won't change where we are in the process, but that's where I stand.

Quick Edit: It's never to soon to start investing. As a pilot, we can all acknowledge that we have more free time than regular workers. Commute time, Hotel layover time, time off. That's Capital. That's an advantage.