Whixh is why it’s called IMO - In my opinion. You’re certainly free to disagree. No one has been able to correctly predict anything in aviation since about March 2020. Hopefully omicron is the last variant and the estimates are correct that Jan-Feb will be a loss but the rest of the year will be profitable. Hopefully being the key word.


As for impact in operation, you can certainly take your best guess. When things were melting down in the entire sector due to omicron and blizzards in Dec and early Jan, some airlines offered 200% to everyone just to show up to normal work. Some did 200, 300, even 400% pay for opentime pickup. One though paid 150% for premium trips but otherwise, cancelled flights due to lack of crew. No attempts at any 150% for showing up to work. Or 200, 300, etc for picking up trips. Guess who? We are shaping up to have a year that will break records in pilot hiring, largest in history, and one solution offered is just to hire more than planned in order to deal with attrition. Guess who?


Does that sound like desperation by any means?


Lastly…

“Grow” to you is not the same as “grow” to them. Growth to you and I means more airframes, more CAs, more newhires. Growth to them is measured in ASMs. Parking 4 A320s and replacing with 3 MAXes resulting in more overall seats is “growth” to them. Not for us. For us that’s 1 less airframe.

Keep that in mind, the definition of growth is not the same.

 

Do not mistake management's inability to recognize a problem to mean that a problem does not exist.


The fleet plan is public knowledge. They want more airframes. If they have to retreat from those plans because they can't retain or hire fast enough, that's leverage. I guess we'll have to see how badly they want it.

We already have emails saying they're drawing down block hours because of crew shortages. Sounds like attrition is already having an impact. At what point do you start calling it a problem, Shy?

 

They know. The question becomes is it cheaper to accept the 'as-is' solution or 'throw money at it' to fix solution? Winter storms in SEA is a good example.


I'll let some gurus handle that one. IIRC, pre pandemic was 73 Buses + 168 Boeings = 241 total, a number we don't hit until end of 2023? The problem is, the entire current A320 fleet is slated to go to 0 by year end 2023. If there are any hiccups along the way, they can speed it up or push it back.

I believe that was due to Omicron related sick calls and omicron-related drop in passenger demand. Hopefully a short lived thing. We have a problem right now because none of the airlines correctly predicted the recovery. Too many were allowed to retire and/or go on leave, and once demand rapidly picked back up, there was a problem getting them in the sims along with newhires/upgrades. Yes we have a problem and the sims are maxed out in all locations.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KzEJo28LG-Y

Change the logos/signs and the uniform, sounds similar.


Lets start the merger rumors

 

That was well done.

 

Another one

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XOd9vpmzHF8

 

Did they just take page out of AS ALPA playbook?

Also, that was really well done. Especially liked that they showed the affects cancellations have on customers. I reckon those pilots were actors though.

 

What the company believes growth is (more seats) does not coincide with what we believe growth is (more planes).

Yes we will park smaller planes and replace them with bigger ones (which we won't get paid more to fly, but it's a King Ranch!)

 

Every pilot group has a few people with SAG cards.

 

Well. SkyWest/Horizon are going to fly the smaller planes… but other than that yes.


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