If any "senior captain" starts regurgitating the same “time value of money” speech this time around, I'd say they deserve to be slitch bapped back into whatever alternate universe they came from, which will hopefully clear up their tunnel vision in the process.

 

Fake news? Where did I write there wasn't attrition?

 

You really should run for Congress with that level of short-term memory double speak. You've been claiming attrition would never be a problem for years. The floodgates are opening.
Time to update your assumptions about the industry, Shy.

 

Haha busted lol. I would have just let it slide because it’s the dudes M.O.

I’ve got better things to do than mind the business of others here. Even though they remain creepy stalker status apparently…


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My money is on that ShyGuy secretly has his apps out. He's been hyping up Alaska and downplaying attrition in the hopes of leapfrogging anyone who might be on the fence about leaving.

It's very Machiavellian.

 

Well he certainly didn’t leapfrog me.

 

Nice one Bubs. You found a post from 4 years ago, in January 2018. Newguy wrote "2 weeks ago you were saying there wasn’t attrition."

2 weeks ago, 4 years ago, is a huge difference in aviation timeframe. But even then, both of you forget that words matter. I never said "there isn't attrition" which is what newguy claimed.

There is attrition, there's always been attrition, the question is how much. I wrote (quite clearly) that there wasn't an attrition problem that could be construed as leverage when it comes to a new contract. Last year there was something like 42 for the entire year. This year, it looks like about 18 (?) for the month of January alone. This trend is very likely to continue. Lets assume it's 18 every month like it was January and that is about 216 for the year. Out of the total, what 3,150 so far? And likely 3400 by year end? So you're talking attrition picking itself from 1.4% to about 5-7%. A huge increase, sure, but isn't Sun Country like where of their ~400 pilots, 150 resigned in one year which was a full 38% in one year attrition and ultimately the reason they got a TA asap to prevent the bleeding.

The floodgates are opening. But how much attrition is enough to shake their knees? I don't know about you, but I just watched the video and clearly stated that the plan is to over hire a little more than planned in order to address the attrition issue. IMO it doesn't sound like they are shaking at the knees on pilot attrition. Time will tell. I hope I'm wrong, but I still don't see a new contract by year end due to attrition issues.

 

This is Thomas Binger level logic right there.

 

Of all the sentences you write, (which are plenty) this is the one that ****es me off the most.

You have zero experience in what levels of attrition will impact the operation. But yet you speak with certainty about what the people in management are thinking. You do this all the time. Your speculation is based on nothing but your own overconfidence and your small window into the industry.

The company has said very clearly they intend to grow. If attrition delays those plans, don't you think that's leverage?
I'm not saying to not have an opinion. Sure, we all can have that. But, damn dude, stop speaking like a prophet. You're not one.

 

Clearly he thinks he’s one.


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