Maybe in ten years. Right now they seem to be parking planes amid staffing meltdowns.

 

Things will change sooner rather than later, just sit back and watch it unfold…

 

Regionals can't staff any growth. Alaska is going to have to take a hard look at their outsourcing plans going forward.

 

Yeah I have a feeling this is going to be short lived. Hopefully not. However now is an excellent time to cement in some serious scope/career protections.


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No time like the present! Other than, you know, like twenty years ago.

 

The shortage being short lived? The ability to find qualified talent short lived?

We just had 4 SFO new hires resign yesterday alone. If attrition tracks the rest of the year like it is right now, we are in serious trouble. There are only so many PNW pilots who live in a bubble and think air group is the only choice. If all the other more desirable airlines can't staff, and are terrified about the ability to staff in the future, Air Group sure as hell won't staff...

 

If staffing truly does become an issue at Alaska I see them choosing to shrink the operation, at least for a while, rather than in their eyes give in and provide an industry standard contract.

 

They could do what some regionals did last time around... attempt to trade CBA improvements in exchange for extravagant signing bonuses and high pay scales for years 1-5. That would attract a few folks anyway, especially older ones who wouldn't benefit from the WB opportunities at the big three.

 

They could certainly try, but I doubt the NC would even entertain it.

 

​​​​​If for them it's all about profitability and keeping their share holders happy, then trying to remain one of the darlings of Wall Street will be a part of the calculus that influences what they ultimately do.

They are probably asking themselves, if this tight pilot labor market is really going to be a thing, do we shrink as needed, while continuing to milk the benefits of the old contract for as long as possible; or do we quickly agree to a decent contract, take a short term hit on our profits, but make up for it with strong future growth, due to the fact that we are able to attract and retain the pilots needed to support this growth?

AS is a VERY financially conservative company, so they love to build up big profits during the good times, so that even during bad times, unlike their peers, they are able to weather the storm with somewhat more confidence.

They do this by being shrewd penny pinchers, paying as little as they can get away with for labor, goods and services. It has been a winning business strategy for decades, and I think they are loathe to change their mindset because they have not had to pay the various pied pipers, especially the one that represents labor.

That may be about to change, so we will see if they eventually bend to the reality of the times, or they somehow continue to miraculously operate in the bubble that is so integral to THEIR philosophy of success.