I hope you're right. The 777X would be sweet. From what I've seen of Isom I would expect him just to order a few more 787s and more XLRs. Shrink the total Group IV airframes and increase the 321XLR fleet to pick up the slack. Then they could offload whatever they can't fly to JV partners. We don't have eny scope requiring growth flying to be done by AA.

 

The 1:1 replacement you referenced in a later post negates these numbers, right? We have 777s from the Clinton administration still flying. At some point, it won’t make sense to keep them operating. We’ve retreated in a lot of international markets.

I hope you’re right, but I’ll believe it when I see it.

 

My guess? Eventually more 787s and more XLRs, that’s about it.

 

a350 is my guess, It's the perfect 777 replacement.

 

“Perfect” and “logical” don’t usually apply to us. We had the orders and the SIM in place, and they let it go. Why would they bring all that back when they can save $0.50 if they order more 787s?. They don’t care about logic

 

The doomerism amongst our pilot group is staggering sometimes.

 

Where’s the doomerism? Isn’t a fact we had those orders and a SIM already in place?

 

The entire thread above?

Of course it's a fact that they canned the 350 orders and program. I remember the sim sitting in GSW training the initial cadre.

But everyone still acts like that happened yesterday and that they didn't fire the guy who led the charge to make that call. Vasu did that in 2018 and was fired last year. He did damage to our airline that will take at least a decade to repair.

Will they order 350's? More 78's? 77X? Who knows, but everyone acts like it is a certainty that we're going to shrink the widebody fleet with absolutely zero evidence to support it other than a gut feeling.

We fawn over DAL and UAL while the bulk of their widebody fleets are 25+ years old too.

 

“..when their entire order book is delivered”. Delta notoriously doesn’t order many years out - in fact the wide-body order book extends just to 2028. The 20 options from the 35K is assuredly going to exercised soon as well per DL’s historical ordering practices. No US carrier will order the 777X (simply too big) and you say AA will 1:1 the 777’s for more WB’s but refuse to think DL will do the same to their 763 WB’s?

Existing 330’s are replacing 763’s - what’s replacing those pulled 330’s? (787 possibly 2029-2030 or more 330 orders). Delta hasn’t made those orders yet - DL is a WB Airbus carrier and the tariffs will shake things up on timetables/potentially going to Boeing.

United’s order book extends into deep 2030’s (~240 WB’s with all 787+777-300ER when it’s done) and American’s until 2029. If you add DL’s 764+350+330 fleet in addition to existing WB orders and options it equates to 186 WB aircraft by 2028.

Other factors:
1) Delta’s new Global Scope which will force Delta to grow 1:1 WB hours with all partners.. IndiGo & Riyadh set to be Delta partners - Asiana merging into Skyteam. VS, LATAM, AM, WS, SK, MU, CI are all growing in WB’s - DL has too match each one.
2) Delta’s desire for WB’s TATL vs. NB (no desire for XLR).
3) AMS/CDG/ICN much more room to accommodate TPAC/TATL growth vs. LHR/HND/MAD
4) AA is retreating in JFK, giving AS its west-coast flying/no AA west-coast hub, its European partners incentivize (due to be so close to Atlantic side) no AA-overflying of LHR/MAD. DL has three strong TATL gateways (BOS, ATL, JFK) and two TPAC (LAX, SEA). [Two WB categories added less than a year apart BOS330/SEA350 and SLC350 becoming more likely soon with JFK350 becoming more of a reality after the 35K arrival].
5) AA has no scope protection and weaker financial footing at the moment vs. Delta whom is focusing on intl. growth

I expect by mid 2030’s UA will have around 240 pay-scale WB’s, AA at 180, and DL at 220 give or take. AA can absolutely turn it all around and acutely start growing intl. at some point, but quit trying to downplay Delta’s current game plan. The days of “DL shipping WB’s to JV’s” are assuredly over with the Scope addition - more JV’s/partner’s now = more DL WB flying.

https://d2r1lrrqctgamh.cloudfront.ne...A/NN-23-03.pdf

 

Oh look, the one no one cares about has thoughts…